{ "cutoff_at": "2026-10-26T09:10:59+00:00", "cases": [ { "id": "CASE-20261012-SAMSUNG-PRELIMINARY", "source_disclosure_id": "005930.KS_2026Q3_preliminary_20261008", "company": "Samsung", "evidence_type": "official_preliminary_guidance", "skills": [ "F2", "F3", "F4", "F6", "F11", "F14", "F18" ], "real_analyst_question": null, "management_testimony": "2026 Q3 estimated group revenue KRW195tn and operating profit KRW107.4tn, K-IFRS.", "researcher_inference": "Implied group operating margin 55.08%; this does not identify memory/HBM profitability or cash generation.", "hidden_uncertainty": "利润来自价格、出货、产品组合还是其他业务/一次性项？集团数字能否推导内存盈利？", "kpi": "按业务的收入与经营利润、DRAM/NAND bit出货与ASP、HBM产品组合、库存、CFO和CapEx。", "model_revision": "集团经营利润采用初步估计并保留区间；分部增量未分配。ΔOP_group = ΔOP_memory + ΔOP_other + reconciliation；不把全部增量归给HBM。", "counterexample": "内存利润上升但终端业务受元件成本挤压，或非现金调整抬高集团利润；集团盈利不能代表各业务均改善。", "falsification": "若最终K-IFRS经营利润落在107.3–107.5tn之外，替换初步值并查明修订原因；若分部内存增量不足以解释集团增量，则否定“全部由内存驱动”。区间是已公布估计范围，不是统计置信区间。", "next_evidence_date": "2026-10-29", "transfer_question": "合成迁移题：一家陌生电力设备集团只披露收入和集团利润，数据中心业务与住宅业务并存。写出两套相同集团利润、不同数据中心利润的分部情景，并列出最先索取的数据。", "synthetic_transfer": true, "question_attribution": "researcher-authored training; no analyst persona claimed", "sources": [ { "title": "Samsung Electronics Announces Earnings Guidance for Third Quarter 2026 – Samsung Global Newsroom", "url": "https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-electronics-announces-earnings-guidance-for-third-quarter-2026", "source_ref": "turn37view0", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-12", "evidence_kind": "official_page_opened", "locator": "Announcement and K-IFRS estimate/comparator table, lines 65–87" } ] }, { "id": "CASE-20261012-TSMC-MONTHLY", "source_disclosure_id": "TSM_202609_monthly_revenue_20261008", "company": "TSMC", "evidence_type": "official_monthly_revenue", "skills": [ "F2", "F4", "F5", "F6", "F11", "F14", "F18" ], "real_analyst_question": null, "management_testimony": "September consolidated monthly revenue NT$511,857m, unaudited.", "researcher_inference": "July–September sum NT$1,494,243m. September −0.6% MoM coexists with +54.6% YoY; neither identifies a demand turning point alone.", "hidden_uncertainty": "营收增长是否来自晶圆量、ASP、先进制程/封装组合、汇率或确认时点？收入信号能否推导利润或客户部署？", "kpi": "同币种季度收入、产品/制程组合、晶圆出货、利用率、ASP、实际汇率、毛利率、CFO与应收。", "model_revision": "只约束Q3 TWD收入；R_Q3 = R_Jul + R_Aug + R_Sep。利润 = 收入 × 毛利率 − 费用，毛利率与费用未知，暂不修改EPS/FCF。不得用本日现汇折算后声称超过历史USD指引。", "counterexample": "旺季产品组合或汇率改变足以推高收入，即使AI收入份额不变；高收入与启动成本上升也可同时存在。", "falsification": "若最终季度同口径TWD收入与1,494,243m不一致，先做月报修订/合并口径/舍入核对；若新增收入由非AI客户解释，则否定“月报已证明AI份额提升”。", "next_evidence_date": "2026-10-15", "transfer_question": "合成迁移题：一家陌生光模块商三个月收入连续增长，库存与应收增长更快。哪条现金流证据能区分终端部署、渠道备货和提前确认？保留两套相同收入、不同现金流的情景。", "synthetic_transfer": true, "question_attribution": "researcher-authored training; no real call or affiliation inferred", "sources": [ { "title": "TSMC 2026 monthly revenue - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026", "source_ref": "turn24view1", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-12", "evidence_kind": "official_page_opened", "locator": "2026 Monthly Revenue table and unaudited note, lines 295–317" }, { "title": "www.sec.gov", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617926000680/tsm-revenue20261008.htm", "source_ref": "turn37view1", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-12", "evidence_kind": "official_page_opened", "locator": "September revenue table, lines 79–88; monthly report, lines 103–110" } ] }, { "id": "CASE-20261019-ASML-PRICING-LAG", "company": "ASML", "source_disclosure_id": "ASML_2026Q3_results_20261014", "question_ids": [ "QA179", "QA180" ], "source_keys": [ "asml", "asml_call" ], "skills": [ "F2", "F3", "F4", "F9", "F11", "F14" ], "management_testimony": "Pricing recognition lags negotiation; factory ramp costs and upgrades affect margins.", "researcher_inference": "收入增长、当季毛利率与远期提价不能使用同一个即时传导系数。", "hidden_uncertainty": "新增毛利来自价格、升级组合还是固定成本吸收？扩产成本先发生，价格何时生效？", "kpi": "按合同批次的EUR/tool、交付台数、升级收入占比、ramp成本EUR、GM百分点。", "model_revision": "按季度与合同批次建模：GP_t=Σ(交付量_vt×ASP_vt×GM_vt)+升级毛利_t−增量ramp成本_t；不把高毛利升级业务一次性外推，也不从净利润直接推导经营毛利。", "counterexample": "提价与需求都真实，但供应链扩产成本先支出、老合同未重订，短期毛利仍可下降。", "falsification": "研究者检验：在下一两期正式披露中，若剔除产品组合后新增单位毛利≤0，撤回“提价已转化成盈利”的判断；若仅合同确认延期，改变兑现时点而非自动判定需求失败。未披露合同批次时保留不可验证状态。", "next_evidence_date": "Next ASML Q4 2026 results release in 2027; exact date not verified", "transfer_question": "合成迁移：陌生工业激光商签署涨价合同，但旧订单尚未交付。怎样区分真实提价、当期利润与估值中的提前计价？", "training": { "stages": [ "合成情景：设备商每季交付100台，旧价每台€2m、单位成本€1m，新签合同涨价10%。先问哪两个日期，才能修订下一季毛利？", "请把你的原答案交给AI导师评审；网页不自动评分。新增约束：下一季仅20台按新价交付，扩产费用€8m计入销售成本。写出收入与毛利桥，保留单位。", "再加约束：另外确认€6m投资重估收益，但不在营业利润内。修正你对EPS质量的判断；没有税率/股数能否给EPS？", "迁移到陌生制药CDMO：已签涨价但验证批次延期。列出同样价格下现金提前或延后的两种合同条款，并给证伪证据。" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic", "evaluation": "Web guidance and self-review only. AI evaluates actual supplied answers; unobserved work is not assessed.", "answer_key_url": "refresh-answer-keys.json" }, "sources": [ { "title": "ASML Q3 2026 results", "url": "https://www.investor.asml.com/news-releases/news-release-details/asml-reports-eu11.7-billion-total-net-sales-and-eu5.0-billion-net-income-q3-2026", "source_ref": "turn60view1", "publication_date": "2026-10-14", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-19", "evidence_kind": "official_release", "locator": "Results table and outlook, lines 38–75" }, { "title": "ASML Q3 2026 call — Motley Fool mirror", "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/10/14/asml-asml-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/", "source_ref": "turn62view0", "publication_date": "2026-10-14", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-19", "evidence_kind": "public_transcript_mirror_not_audio_verified", "locator": "Q&A Joe Quatrochi and Krish Sankar; lines 235–279" } ], "evidence_type": "source_fact_and_management_testimony_separate_from_editorial_model", "real_analyst_question": "See linked question IDs; paraphrases, not verbatim", "synthetic_transfer": true, "question_attribution": "Editor-authored training, not a named analyst speaking", "created_at": "2026-10-19" }, { "id": "CASE-20261019-TSMC-DEPLOYMENT", "company": "TSMC", "source_disclosure_id": "TSM_2026Q3_results_20261015", "question_ids": [ "QA181", "QA182" ], "source_keys": [ "tsmc", "tsmc_call" ], "skills": [ "F6", "F7", "F9", "F10", "F14", "F15", "F17" ], "management_testimony": "Capacity assessment includes downstream constraints; High-NA timing is linked to maturity and economics.", "researcher_inference": "晶圆需求应通过客户融资和上电进度交叉验证；技术领先不能只看设备首装时间。", "hidden_uncertainty": "客户是否能把芯片转换成有现金回报的上线算力？新工艺的成本/良率条件何时成立？", "kpi": "已融资MW、可上电MW、有效利用率、良品die/wafer、每良品成本、设备与光罩认证里程碑。", "model_revision": "可变现计算量=min(合格芯片容量,网络容量,已上电容量)×付费利用率；晶圆订单另建交付/库存桥。比较High-NA方案时计算全流程成本/良品die，不将tool先进性等同经济优势。", "counterexample": "客户芯片订单增长，但电力接入延期；设备已装机，但光罩/良率未达到经济门槛。", "falsification": "编辑阈值：若下一两季已融资和上电MW增长≤0、而客户库存持续上升，撤回即时需求兑现假设，重做订单时滞。若新工艺成本/良品die仍高于既有路线，则不认定其已取得经济领先；2030/2031是管理层计划，不是保证。", "next_evidence_date": "2026-10-21 Meta; 2026-10-28 Microsoft/Alphabet; cross-check not TSMC reporting dates", "transfer_question": "合成迁移：陌生港口购入更先进自动吊机，却受电网和铁路疏运限制。怎样比较设备升级与实际吞吐回报？", "training": { "stages": [ "合成情景：陌生港口吊机可处理100箱/小时，电力只支持80箱/小时，铁路可运70箱/小时。客户宣称订单翻倍，你先修订哪个变量？", "先交由AI导师评审你的实际回答。新增约束：铁路季度内升至90，电力仍为80，付费利用率75%。重算可收费吞吐。", "新增约束：吊机升级至120要增加折旧，但电力未变。什么独立证据会支持或推翻现在投资？明确观察期限。", "迁移至晶圆代工：列出订单、晶圆出货、客户库存、已上电算力之间的时滞；说明为何不能直接把港口吞吐公式套作当季晶圆收入。" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic", "evaluation": "Web guidance and self-review only. AI evaluates actual supplied answers; unobserved work is not assessed.", "answer_key_url": "refresh-answer-keys.json" }, "sources": [ { "title": "TSMC Q3 2026 results and guidance", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q3", "source_ref": "turn58view0", "publication_date": "2026-10-15", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-19", "evidence_kind": "official_results_page", "locator": "Guidance comparison table, lines 336–347" }, { "title": "TSMC Q3 2026 — issuer-hosted LSEG edited transcript", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2026-10/eba4fac72873bf546b669bd2b5d973df5c93215d/TSMC%203Q26%20Transcript.pdf", "source_ref": "turn59view0", "publication_date": "2026-10-15", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-19", "evidence_kind": "issuer_hosted_edited_transcript_not_audio_verified", "locator": "Roster p2; Laura Chen pp6–7; Krish Sankar p10" } ], "evidence_type": "source_fact_and_management_testimony_separate_from_editorial_model", "real_analyst_question": "See linked question IDs; paraphrases, not verbatim", "synthetic_transfer": true, "question_attribution": "Editor-authored training, not a named analyst speaking", "created_at": "2026-10-19" }, { "id": "CASE-20261019-SCHNEIDER-CONVERSION", "company": "Schneider Electric", "source_disclosure_id": "SU_2026Q3_revenue_20261016", "question_ids": [ "QA183", "QA184" ], "source_keys": [ "schneider", "schneider_call" ], "skills": [ "F3", "F4", "F7", "F9", "F10", "F14", "F18" ], "management_testimony": "Backlog delivery phasing and prefab margin contribution remain unquantified.", "researcher_inference": "订单增长、工地安装更快与供应商毛利改善，是三个需要分别证明的命题。", "hidden_uncertainty": "prefab是否加快验收与现金，还是把人工、库存和集成责任转移给供应商？", "kpi": "订单批次EUR、交付/验收比例、取消权、现场工时、工厂工时、应收天数、分产品毛利与营运资本。", "model_revision": "R_t=Σ(订单批次_v×交付比例_vt×验收比例_vt)；现金=CFO前利润−Δ营运资本。计入prefab工厂集成成本，不把现场节省全归供应商。", "counterexample": "模块交货快但并网许可延期；供应商库存和应收上升，客户现场节省并未提高供应商FCF。", "falsification": "编辑阈值：若连续两期交付与验收转换率下降且库存/应收天数升高，停止用订单增速直接提高短期收入和FCF。若总项目周期未缩短，仅可认定现场工时改善，不能认定整体time-to-power改善。", "next_evidence_date": "2027-02-18 official Schneider FY2026 results; 2026-10-28 Vertiv peer cross-check", "transfer_question": "合成迁移：陌生轨道设备商采用预制变电站，现场施工快但线路许可延误。重建收入与现金确认条件。", "training": { "stages": [ "合成情景：陌生轨道设备商新订单€200m，下一季交付40%，收入在验收时确认。还缺哪个比例，才能估算收入？", "先请AI导师评审回答。新增约束：交付部分仅75%通过验收；客户预付款€20m。计算收入，说明预付款与收入关系。", "再加约束：客户许可延期，库存增加€15m、应收增加€10m。为什么安装快仍可能使现金变差？需要哪些应付和税费信息？", "迁移到服务器整柜：验收标准变更后，如何区分出货、收入、保证金与经营现金流？提出两期内可检验的反例。" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic", "evaluation": "Web guidance and self-review only. AI evaluates actual supplied answers; unobserved work is not assessed.", "answer_key_url": "refresh-answer-keys.json" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Schneider Electric Q3 2026 revenues", "url": "https://www.se.com/ww/en/assets/pdf/release-Q3-revenues-2026", "source_ref": "turn61view1", "publication_date": "2026-10-16", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-19", "evidence_kind": "official_release", "locator": "Revenue pp1–2; target p11; reported/organic bridge p13" }, { "title": "Schneider Q3 2026 sales call — Investing.com mirror", "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-schneider-electric-posts-record-q3-2026-revenue-93CH-4953279", "source_ref": "turn61view0", "publication_date": "2026-10-16", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-19", "evidence_kind": "public_transcript_mirror_not_audio_verified", "locator": "Andre Kukhnin lines 140–148; Alasdair Leslie lines 211–220" } ], "evidence_type": "source_fact_and_management_testimony_separate_from_editorial_model", "real_analyst_question": "See linked question IDs; paraphrases, not verbatim", "synthetic_transfer": true, "question_attribution": "Editor-authored training, not a named analyst speaking", "created_at": "2026-10-19" }, { "id": "CASE-20261019-AMAT-TARGET-BOUNDARY", "company": "Applied Materials", "source_disclosure_id": "AMAT_2030_targets_20261013", "question_ids": [], "source_keys": [ "amat" ], "skills": [ "F4", "F6", "F10", "F12", "F14", "F20" ], "management_testimony": "2030 targets include non-GAAP gross margin around 54% and operating margin around 40%; these are management targets.", "researcher_inference": "长期目标需要市场规模、份额与费用桥；不能直接作为下一季度预测或实际盈利。", "hidden_uncertainty": "利润率目标依赖多少规模杠杆与份额扩张？若WFE市场低于假设，费用是否可调整？", "kpi": "可比WFE市场USD、份额百分点、服务收入USD、GM%、OpEx/收入%、R&D与CapEx、GAAP调整项目。", "model_revision": "设备收入=WFE×份额；集团收入还需独立服务与其他业务。OP=R×GM−OpEx。54%与40%的目标在同口径下隐含OpEx/R≈14%，只是算术约束，不是已验证费用计划。", "counterexample": "份额上升但行业支出下降，收入不一定增长；利润率目标也可能依赖未说明的非GAAP排除项。", "falsification": "研究者检验：每次正式结果重估收入/费用桥；若达到40%OM所需OpEx比例低于有依据的R&D及其他费用底线，就撤回该基准情景，而不是把目标当结果。2030是目标终点，不意味着期间可忽略里程碑。", "next_evidence_date": "2026-11-12 projected on issuer calendar, not confirmed; revisit official notice", "transfer_question": "合成迁移：陌生测试设备商目标40%OM，但市场规模和服务附着率未公开。反推达标所需收入，识别不可观测变量。", "training": { "stages": [ "合成情景：陌生测试设备商2030目标GM54%、OM40%。同口径下它隐含什么费用率？这是否证明目标可达？", "先请AI导师评审实际回答。新增约束：收入100、年度OpEx最低18。计算达到40%OM需要的GM；再算GM54%下所需最低收入。", "新增约束：设备市场规模下降10%、份额由20%升至22%。重算设备收入，不把份额增加2个百分点当作总收入增加2%。", "迁移至软件公司：净收入留存率上升但新客下降，长期利润目标如何反推可观察的客户数、客单价和费用底线？" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic", "evaluation": "Web guidance and self-review only. AI evaluates actual supplied answers; unobserved work is not assessed.", "answer_key_url": "refresh-answer-keys.json" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Applied Materials SEMICON West financial targets", "url": "https://ir.appliedmaterials.com/news-releases/news-release-details/applied-materials-set-outperform-ai-drives-sustained-demand/", "source_ref": "turn120view0", "publication_date": "2026-10-13", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-19", "evidence_kind": "official_release", "locator": "Targets and non-GAAP limitations, lines 123–138" } ], "evidence_type": "source_fact_and_management_testimony_separate_from_editorial_model", "real_analyst_question": null, "synthetic_transfer": true, "question_attribution": "Editor-authored training, not a named analyst speaking", "created_at": "2026-10-19" }, { "id": "CASE-20261026-LRCX-SUPPLY-TIMING", "company": "Lam Research", "source_disclosure_id": "LRCX_2027Q1_results_20261021", "question_ids": [ "QA185", "QA186" ], "skills": [ "F3", "F4", "F7", "F9", "F14" ], "management_testimony": "Shipment timing and supplier readiness were discussed; no delay amount was confirmed.", "researcher_inference": "供应短缺同时影响收入时点和现金；不能把提问者的金额变成管理层承诺。", "hidden_uncertainty": "延迟、取消、验收还是产品组合导致收入变化？供应商资本够不够与何时合格交付不同。", "kpi": "订单USD、合格部件/周、工具交付/验收台数、取消率、库存、应付与CFO。", "model_revision": "R_t=Σ合格交付量×ASP×验收比例；跨期追回量≤可交付延期订单。供应商融资只是产能到货的必要条件之一；收入递延额未知时不给单一点估计。", "counterexample": "资金到位但认证迟延；原订单被取消或别的订单占用同一部件，下一季未必全部追回。", "falsification": "编辑阈值：到2027年3月季度结束后，若对应延期订单未验收或被取消，撤回全部追回假设。未披露订单批次时记不可验证，不用公司总收入替代。", "next_evidence_date": "December 2026 and March 2027 quarter results; exact release dates unverified", "transfer_question": "迁移到陌生港口设备商：交货后等待客户验收；设计能区分需求消失、交付延迟和收入确认延迟的两季度检验。", "training": { "stages": [ "合成：陌生设备商原计划验收100台，每台$2m；20台缺部件。先列出把本季收入缺口搬到下季所需的条件。", "请先交AI评审你的回答。新增约束：延期20台中5台取消，其余15台下季只有80%通过验收。计算追回收入，不把它加到已含追回的原指引上。", "新增约束：供应商有资金但量产认证推迟6周。你需要怎样的周度证据区分融资瓶颈与物理瓶颈？", "迁移到陌生港口设备商：交货后等待客户验收；设计能区分需求消失、交付延迟和收入确认延迟的两季度检验。" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic", "evaluation": "Web guidance and self-review only. AI evaluates actual supplied answers; unobserved work is not assessed.", "answer_key_url": "refresh-answer-keys.json" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Lam September 2026 quarter results — issuer-distributed release", "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lam-research-corporation-reports-financial-results-for-the-quarter-ended-september-27-2026-302915810.html", "publication_date": "2026-10-21", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-26", "evidence_kind": "issuer_release_syndicated_by_prnewswire", "locator": "GAAP/non-GAAP summary; Outlook; balance-sheet and cash-flow tables, lines 478–617", "source_ref": "turn189view3" }, { "title": "Lam Q1 FY2027 — issuer-hosted LSEG edited transcript", "url": "https://investor.lamresearch.com/image/LRCX-USQ_Transcript_2026-10-21.pdf", "publication_date": "2026-10-21", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-26", "evidence_kind": "issuer_hosted_edited_transcript_not_audio_verified", "locator": "Roster p2; Timothy Arcuri pp7–8; Melissa Weathers pp8–9", "source_ref": "turn192view1" } ], "evidence_type": "source_fact_and_management_testimony_separate_from_editorial_model", "real_analyst_question": "See linked selected sub-question IDs; paraphrases, not quotations", "synthetic_transfer": true, "question_attribution": "Editor-authored training, not a named analyst speaking", "created_at": "2026-10-26" }, { "id": "CASE-20261026-META-CAPACITY-CASH", "company": "Meta", "source_disclosure_id": "META_2026Q3_results_20261021", "question_ids": [ "QA187", "QA188", "QA190" ], "skills": [ "F2", "F4", "F9", "F10", "F11", "F14" ], "management_testimony": "2027 spending and ownership mix were not quantified.", "researcher_inference": "会计费用调整不能代替现金桥；自建资本开支与租用云支出需一起观察，不能只看一条CapEx。", "hidden_uncertainty": "核心广告现金回报是否能支持更长周期的新AI项目？支出降低是否只是从自建转向租用？", "kpi": "CFO、设备现金支出、融资租赁本金、云费用、承诺金额、可用MW、付费任务及单位贡献。", "model_revision": "公司定义FCF=CFO−资本开支（含融资租赁本金）。分开自建/租用容量和支付时点；既有广告、AI新收入和法律费用分开建桥。禁止从扣除法律费用后的EPS直接推导现金回报。", "counterexample": "自建CapEx下降而云费用/不可取消承诺上升；调整后盈利改善但FCF仍为负。", "falsification": "编辑阈值：未来两期若每单位成功任务贡献≤0且已上电利用率未改善，撤回短期AI自融资假设；若只有会计利润改善、现金不改善，不能认定资本回报已兑现。", "next_evidence_date": "Meta Q4 2026 results / 2027 budget; exact date unverified", "transfer_question": "迁移至陌生航空公司：自购机转租赁后，用相同运力口径比较现金、承诺和利用率，不从资本开支下降直接推出回报上升。", "training": { "stages": [ "合成：陌生物流云平台CFO 30、设备现金支出28、融资租赁本金4；其中云租用费6已包含在CFO。按给定定义计算FCF。", "先请AI评审。新增约束：明年设备现金支出减少8，云费用增加10；其他现金项目不变。只看CapEx会怎样误判？重算FCF。", "新增约束：利润含一次性非现金费用9，且CFO已作调回。能否在FCF上再加9？指出还需核验的现金支付义务。", "迁移至陌生航空公司：自购机转租赁后，用相同运力口径比较现金、承诺和利用率，不从资本开支下降直接推出回报上升。" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic", "evaluation": "Web guidance and self-review only. AI evaluates actual supplied answers; unobserved work is not assessed.", "answer_key_url": "refresh-answer-keys.json" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Meta Q3 2026 results", "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Third-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx", "publication_date": "2026-10-21", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-26", "evidence_kind": "official_release", "locator": "Financial highlights; legal-charge note; CFO outlook; cash-flow reconciliation", "source_ref": "turn169view0" }, { "title": "Meta Q3 2026 main earnings call — official transcript", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/content_files/META-Q3-2026-Earnings-Call-Transcript.pdf", "publication_date": "2026-10-21", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-26", "evidence_kind": "official_transcript_not_audio_verified", "locator": "Doug Anmuth pp14–15; Justin Post pp15–16", "source_ref": "turn195view0" }, { "title": "Meta Q3 2026 follow-up analyst call — official transcript", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/content_files/META-Q3-2026-Follow-Up-Call-Transcript.pdf", "publication_date": "2026-10-21", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-26", "evidence_kind": "official_transcript_not_audio_verified", "locator": "Opening p1 establishes separate event; Ron Josey pp2–3; Ken Gawrelski pp3–4; Benjamin Black pp6–7", "source_ref": "turn196view0" } ], "evidence_type": "source_fact_and_management_testimony_separate_from_editorial_model", "real_analyst_question": "See linked selected sub-question IDs; paraphrases, not quotations", "synthetic_transfer": true, "question_attribution": "Editor-authored training, not a named analyst speaking", "created_at": "2026-10-26" }, { "id": "CASE-20261026-META-FINANCING-OPTION", "company": "Meta", "source_disclosure_id": "META_2026Q3_results_20261021", "question_ids": [ "QA189" ], "skills": [ "F9", "F11", "F20", "F22" ], "management_testimony": "Financing capacity is not an announced issuance plan.", "researcher_inference": "资本结构选择权与资金到位不同；保留控制权不等于没有经济稀释。", "hidden_uncertainty": "未发行证券能否满足投资预算？何时产生现金和稀释？", "kpi": "已发行股数、发行价、净筹资额、费用、现有股东比例、资金缺口USD。", "model_revision": "融资现金=实际新发行股数×净发行价；授权上限只列融资选项，不进现金。等比例拆股本身不筹资；后续对外发行才改变经济所有权。", "counterexample": "融资工具充分但市场价格下跌、发行窗口关闭；拥有投票控制的股东也可能被经济稀释。", "falsification": "编辑阈值：只有正式发行及交割证据才把融资计入可用现金；若计划投资所需现金超过现金+可验证经营流入+已承诺融资，基准情景不闭合。", "next_evidence_date": "Next financing filing or Meta Q4 results; exact date unknown", "transfer_question": "迁移至陌生电网运营商：获批债券额度但未发行。区分额度、承销承诺、交割现金和到期再融资风险。", "training": { "stages": [ "合成：陌生生物平台有100股，每股价值$10；批准最多新增50股，但尚未发行。现金增加多少？", "请先评审实际回答。新增约束：按$10真正发行20股，无费用。计算筹资和旧股东发行后比例；不要把授权50股当已发。", "新增约束：融资前先进行一拆二。发行总筹资额仍200。哪些每股量需同步调整，哪些企业价值量不变？", "迁移至陌生电网运营商：获批债券额度但未发行。区分额度、承销承诺、交割现金和到期再融资风险。" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic", "evaluation": "Web guidance and self-review only. AI evaluates actual supplied answers; unobserved work is not assessed.", "answer_key_url": "refresh-answer-keys.json" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Meta Q3 2026 follow-up analyst call — official transcript", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/content_files/META-Q3-2026-Follow-Up-Call-Transcript.pdf", "publication_date": "2026-10-21", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-26", "evidence_kind": "official_transcript_not_audio_verified", "locator": "Opening p1 establishes separate event; Ron Josey pp2–3; Ken Gawrelski pp3–4; Benjamin Black pp6–7", "source_ref": "turn196view0" } ], "evidence_type": "source_fact_and_management_testimony_separate_from_editorial_model", "real_analyst_question": "See linked selected sub-question IDs; paraphrases, not quotations", "synthetic_transfer": true, "question_attribution": "Editor-authored training, not a named analyst speaking", "created_at": "2026-10-26" }, { "id": "CASE-20261026-META-EFFICIENCY-ELASTICITY", "company": "Meta", "source_disclosure_id": "META_2026Q3_results_20261021", "question_ids": [ "QA191" ], "skills": [ "F4", "F9", "F10", "F14", "F18" ], "management_testimony": "Unit-cost progress and monetization timing both matter.", "researcher_inference": "更低推理单位成本不保证总支出下降，也不保证成功任务利润为正。", "hidden_uncertainty": "效率提升是否保持质量？更多使用是否付费、是否增加每任务推理深度？", "kpi": "每成功任务USD、任务数、成功率、付费比例、每任务收入、固定成本、容量交付。", "model_revision": "可变总成本=成功任务数×每成功任务成本；贡献=成功任务数×(单位收入−单位可变成本)。必须先匹配质量/成功率，另建固定投入及收入采用曲线。", "counterexample": "token便宜但任务更长、失败重试更多；免费使用增长超过成本下降，绝对现金支出仍扩大。", "falsification": "编辑阈值：连续两期同质量每成功任务贡献≤0时不认定商业自持；10倍效率目标未达到不可当事实。每季记录成本、付费转化及质量的未披露项。", "next_evidence_date": "Meta Q4 2026 and subsequent quarterly disclosures; no exact event date verified", "transfer_question": "迁移至陌生卫星影像商：影像生成成本降低，但只有部分影像通过质量验收且出售。用相同质量和付费口径检验利润。", "training": { "stages": [ "合成：陌生工业诊断AI服务每月100万成功任务，每任务成本$1、收入$0.8。算单位及总贡献，不含固定成本。", "先请AI评审。新增约束：同质量成本降至$0.1，成功任务增至1500万，收入仍每任务$0.08。总成本与贡献怎样变化？", "新增约束：低价是每次尝试成本，成功率50%，失败可独立重试。现在能否仍用$0.1作为成功任务成本？说明模型假设。", "迁移至陌生卫星影像商：影像生成成本降低，但只有部分影像通过质量验收且出售。用相同质量和付费口径检验利润。" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic", "evaluation": "Web guidance and self-review only. AI evaluates actual supplied answers; unobserved work is not assessed.", "answer_key_url": "refresh-answer-keys.json" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Meta Q3 2026 follow-up analyst call — official transcript", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/content_files/META-Q3-2026-Follow-Up-Call-Transcript.pdf", "publication_date": "2026-10-21", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-26", "evidence_kind": "official_transcript_not_audio_verified", "locator": "Opening p1 establishes separate event; Ron Josey pp2–3; Ken Gawrelski pp3–4; Benjamin Black pp6–7", "source_ref": "turn196view0" } ], "evidence_type": "source_fact_and_management_testimony_separate_from_editorial_model", "real_analyst_question": "See linked selected sub-question IDs; paraphrases, not quotations", "synthetic_transfer": true, "question_attribution": "Editor-authored training, not a named analyst speaking", "created_at": "2026-10-26" }, { "id": "CASE-20261026-SMCI-PRELIMINARY-MIX", "company": "Supermicro", "source_disclosure_id": "SMCI_2027Q1_preliminary_20261020", "question_ids": [], "skills": [ "F1", "F2", "F3", "F4", "F11", "F14" ], "management_testimony": "Preliminary revenue and margin ranges exceed prior management guidance; final results remain pending.", "researcher_inference": "上修初步估计可以约束收入/毛利，不能自动证明可持续利润、现金转化或一致预期差。", "hidden_uncertainty": "新客户/产品组合是否持久？高收入是否占用更多库存和应收？", "kpi": "收入USD、GM%、毛利USD、客户/产品组合、DSO、库存周转、CFO、验收。", "model_revision": "仅在同币种/同期间用收入×GM建情景；区间端点乘积不是联合概率区间。共识缺失时只比较旧管理层指引；不据此填EPS/FCF。", "counterexample": "高毛利交付集中在季度末、客户付款长；收入和GM同升而现金下降。", "falsification": "2026-11-03正式结果若收入或GM落在初步区间外，先对账估计修订/口径；若现金转换变差，撤回利润上修等于现金上修的判断。", "next_evidence_date": "2026-11-03, official final-results call scheduled 17:00 ET", "transfer_question": "迁移到陌生医疗器械商初步季度销售：区分交付、验收、回款与审计调整，写出正式披露时的证伪清单。", "training": { "stages": [ "合成：陌生整机商初步营收18–20（$bn），GM12–13%。若仅作独立端点算术情景，毛利上下界是多少？这是不是置信区间？", "先请AI评审。新增约束：旧管理层营收指引14–16，没有冻结共识。计算中点变化，并写出可以和不可以称作何种超预期。", "新增约束：应收增加3、库存增加1，其他营运资本未知。能否从毛利直接预测CFO？给出所缺桥接项。", "迁移到陌生医疗器械商初步季度销售：区分交付、验收、回款与审计调整，写出正式披露时的证伪清单。" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic", "evaluation": "Web guidance and self-review only. AI evaluates actual supplied answers; unobserved work is not assessed.", "answer_key_url": "refresh-answer-keys.json" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Supermicro preliminary FY2027 Q1 business update — SEC Exhibit 99.1", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000025/smcifirstquarterfy2027busi.htm", "publication_date": "2026-10-20", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-26", "evidence_kind": "official_sec_exhibit", "locator": "Revenue/margin bullets and preliminary limitations, lines 5–24", "source_ref": "turn188view0" } ], "evidence_type": "source_fact_and_management_testimony_separate_from_editorial_model", "real_analyst_question": null, "synthetic_transfer": true, "question_attribution": "Editor-authored training, not a named analyst speaking", "created_at": "2026-10-26" } ], "counting_rule": "11 source-linked reasoning cases total; 9 have staged synthetic exercises. This run adds 5 cases, 5 synthetic exercises and separately 7 selected real exchanges." }