{ "version": 1, "as_of": "2026-10-09", "scope": "固定100买方+100卖方提名池；分类按原提名及历史来源角色，不代表200名现任行业研究员；候选、身份初核和方法材料分开。", "statusDefinitions": { "candidate": "身份、分类或证据仍需补充", "identity-verified": "有具名身份来源；含明确标注的官方搜索摘录和历史角色，非全部现职认证", "research-ready": "至少两项实质原始材料支持方法样本；不自动认证反复方法或完整投资思想" }, "counts": { "research-ready": 196, "identity-verified": 2, "candidate": 2 }, "priority_count": 20, "existing_profile_matches": 18, "profile_matches": 196, "candidates": [ { "id": "B01", "name": "Ben Rogoff", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Partner, Technology; co-author with Alastair Unwin", "currentRole": "Partner, Technology; co-author with Alastair Unwin", "firm": "Polar Capital", "focus": "Technology and growth investing; candidate focus requires individual substantiation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.pctannualhighlights.co.uk/Investment-Managers-Report/", "title": "Investment Manager’s Report", "date": "FY ended 2026-04-30", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Partner, Technology; co-author with Alastair Unwin", "accessLevel": "primary text opened" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "2026发布日期未明确", "未审计长期预测命中率", "历史类比须独立验证" ], "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "atlasProfileId": "rogoff-polar", "analysis": { "id": "B100BR01", "profile": "rogoff-polar", "title": "收入增长能抵消架构迁移引起的终值下降吗？", "source_ids": [ "B100-BR1", "B100-BR2" ], "locator": "2024 valuation Q&A; FY2026 Mag7 challenged / PC cycle lessons", "source_paraphrase": "Rogoff在2024将成长前景与相对估值结合；2026共同报告质疑部分旧龙头在AI架构中的价值捕获。", "attribution": "前句为来源转述；以下计算及反证是编辑合成，不是本人定价模型。", "model": "合成：股价=EPS×PE；分开盈利路径与终值倍数。", "boundary": "不把技术变化机械映射为固定估值倍数。", "counterexample": "拥有渠道或专有数据的应用可继续捕获价值。", "test": "客户留存、净实现价格、获客成本和替代率。", "question": "合成：EPS由10增至13，PE由30降至20；无股息，总回报多少？", "constraint": "若稀释使EPS只到12，且终值PE18，再计算。", "transfer": "CPU平台营收上升30%，毛利率从50%到35%，收入基数100；毛利变化多少？能推出股价吗？", "tags": [ "F12", "F14", "F16" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic teaching case", "forecast_outcome": "未进行预测结果/投资业绩审计" }, "priority": true, "profileId": "rogoff-polar", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "B100-BR1", "title": "Technology outlook: AI, macro and valuations", "date": "2024-09-25", "url": "https://www.polarcapital.co.uk/static/documents/Polar_Capital_Global_Technology_Fund_-_Technology_outlook_-_AI_macro_and_valuations.pdf", "access": "2026-10-07读取全部访谈正文；PDF第1页；其余为风险及法律声明。", "authors": "Ben Rogoff; interviewer Vik Heerah", "summary": "Rogoff区分股价波动与模型进展，并以相对估值、增长和资本开支判断AI主题。" }, { "id": "B100-BR2", "title": "Investment Manager’s Report — Annual Highlights FY2026", "date": null, "url": "https://www.pctannualhighlights.co.uk/Investment-Managers-Report/", "access": "2026-10-07逐段读取网页全文；对应截至2026-04-30财年；未核验嵌入图表数值或完整年度财务报表。", "authors": "Ben Rogoff and Alastair Unwin", "summary": "共同署名报告讨论AI时代利润池向模型和基础设施迁移、云厂商资本密集度及软件风险。" } ] }, { "id": "B02", "name": "Nick Evans", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Partner and Fund Manager, Global Technology (January 2026)", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Polar Capital", "focus": "Technology and growth investing; candidate focus requires individual substantiation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.polarcapital.co.uk/gb/professional/Events-and-Webcasts/Event/3186/", "title": "Global Technology Webcast", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Fund manager", "accessLevel": "official search excerpt" }, { "url": "https://www.polarcapital.co.uk/static/documents/Global_Tech_Video_Transcript_-_January_2026.pdf", "title": "Nick Evans, Partner and Fund Manager — January 2026", "date": "2026-01", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Partner and Fund Manager, Global Technology (January 2026)", "accessLevel": "primary PDF opened; identity and substantive interview pages 1–2 read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得完整持仓、交易或模型；未审计预测结果及风险调整业绩", "来源身份与现职分列；历史职务不外推至2026年10月" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "nick-evans", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "nick-evans", "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "analysis": { "id": "R2B1-B02-01", "profile": "nick-evans", "title": "AI加价能覆盖席位流失与推理成本吗？", "source_ids": [ "R2B1-EV24", "R2B1-EV26" ], "locator": "The Magnificent 7 and positioning for a market broadening：2026-10-08 读取访谈PDF第1页实质正文。；Global Technology video transcript：2026-10-08 读取PDF第1–2页访谈正文。", "source_paraphrase": "区分AI基础设施、受益者与采用者；看企业之间增长差异而非统一大盘标签。 / 以AI重新划分利润池，关注软件替代风险、基础设施需求与资本开支对自由现金流的影响。", "attribution": "来源为具名公开论证或显式团队共著；以下数字、模型和三阶段练习完全为编辑合成，不是本人预测或原问答。", "model": "收入=席位×价格+AI收入；现金贡献=收入−对应现金成本。", "boundary": "本题现金成本口径，不能当公司会计毛利预测。", "counterexample": "AI收入增长仍可能被推理费用和席位收缩抵消。", "test": "匹配客户队列的席位、AI付费、留存和单位推理成本。", "question": "合成：原100席位×100，成本4000。新80席位×110，另有AI收入2000；原业务成本降到3200，新增AI成本1500。收入与现金贡献（收入减列示现金成本）如何变化？", "constraint": "新席位价格降到90，其他不变；现金贡献多少？", "transfer": "存储公司销售量增50%、单位价格降30%，成本资料未知；收入与利润可作何结论？", "tags": [ "F6", "F16", "F18" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic teaching case", "forecast_outcome": "未进行预测结果/投资业绩审计" }, "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已读两份实质正文并生成方法样本与独立三阶段合成练习；保留公开材料和历史身份边界。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.polarcapital.co.uk/static/documents/Global_Technology_Video_-_The_Magnificent_7_and_positioning_for_a_market_broadening_-_May_2024.pdf", "https://www.polarcapital.co.uk/static/documents/Global_Tech_Video_Transcript_-_January_2026.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "补当前职位确认、完整估值模型与预测结果；不影响已读方法样本。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B1-EV24", "title": "The Magnificent 7 and positioning for a market broadening", "date": "2024-05", "authors": "Nick Evans", "url": "https://www.polarcapital.co.uk/static/documents/Global_Technology_Video_-_The_Magnificent_7_and_positioning_for_a_market_broadening_-_May_2024.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08 读取访谈PDF第1页实质正文。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "区分AI基础设施、受益者与采用者；看企业之间增长差异而非统一大盘标签。" }, { "id": "R2B1-EV26", "title": "Global Technology video transcript", "date": "2026-01", "authors": "Nick Evans", "url": "https://www.polarcapital.co.uk/static/documents/Global_Tech_Video_Transcript_-_January_2026.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08 读取PDF第1–2页访谈正文。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "以AI重新划分利润池，关注软件替代风险、基础设施需求与资本开支对自由现金流的影响。" } ] }, { "id": "B03", "name": "Alastair Unwin", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Partner, Deputy Fund Manager", "currentRole": "Partner, Deputy Fund Manager", "firm": "Polar Capital", "focus": "增长和资本密集度 → 利润池持续性 → 估值与组合约束", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.pctannualhighlights.co.uk/Investment-Managers-Report/", "title": "Investment Manager’s Report", "date": "FY ended 2026-04-30", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Partner, Deputy Fund Manager", "accessLevel": "primary text opened" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "共同作者贡献未拆分", "FY2025发表日期未核验", "未审计组合绩效或预测结果" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "unwin-polar", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "unwin-polar", "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8BAS05", "title": "Investment Manager’s Report: Summary — FY2024", "date": "2024-07-16", "url": "https://www.pctannualhighlights.co.uk/2024/Investment-Managers-Report/", "authors": "Ben Rogoff and Alastair Unwin", "summary": "共同报告比较盈利、估值和资本再投入，讨论软件增长放缓与利润率改善。", "access": "2026-10-08 新读取官方原文；选读 Technology Outlook 下 Earnings Outlook、Valuation、Magnificent 7、Survival of the fittest 及页面署名日期；非完整年报审阅。" }, { "id": "O8BAS06", "title": "Investment Manager’s Report: Summary — FY2025", "date": null, "url": "https://www.pctannualhighlights.co.uk/2025/Investment-Managers-Report/", "authors": "Ben Rogoff and Alastair Unwin", "summary": "共同报告提高对大平台资本密集度及软件替代风险的关注，披露相应组合调整。", "access": "2026-10-08 新读取官方原文；选读 Mag-7 update、Disruption ahead、Cloud update、AI to the rescue、Technology/AI risks、Concentration risk；FY截至2025-04-30，页面有July 2025图表但无明确发布日期，不把财年末当发表日。" } ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_id": "O8BAS05", "claim": "共同把大平台增长、利润率、再投入和估值放在一起评价。", "locator": "Technology Outlook / Magnificent 7；Survival of the fittest", "read_scope": "网页上述章节及署名日期；非完整年报", "evidence_state": "newly-read primary" }, { "source_id": "O8BAS06", "claim": "共同提高对资本密集度、软件替代和大平台仓位的警惕。", "locator": "Mag-7 update；Disruption ahead；Concentration risk", "read_scope": "选读这些章节及Cloud update、Technology/AI risks；无发表日", "evidence_state": "newly-read primary" } ] }, { "id": "B04", "name": "Xuesong Zhao", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Lead Fund Manager, Artificial Intelligence Fund", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Polar Capital", "focus": "Technology and growth investing; candidate focus requires individual substantiation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.polarcapital.co.uk/gb/professional/Events-and-Webcasts/Event/128/", "title": "Artificial Intelligence Fund presentation", "date": "2023-11-01", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Lead Fund Manager, Artificial Intelligence Fund", "accessLevel": "primary identity text opened and read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未审计预测准确率或风险调整业绩；两份材料仅支持有限方法样本", "来源时期身份不自动外推至2026年10月现职" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "xuesong-zhao", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "补读两份不同日期的实质材料，建立本人方法样本及独立三阶段合成练习。仅提炼作者的可变假设；2023文中GPT-4参数等未经核验技术断言不作为事实采用。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.polarcapital.co.uk/static/documents/Polar_Capital_Artificial_Intelligence_Fund_-_August_2023.pdf", "https://www.polarcapital.co.uk/static/documents/Polar_Capital_Artificial_Intelligence_Video_Transcript_-_May_2026.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "补更多具名材料、现职和预测检验，暂不认证稳定个人方法。" }, "atlasProfileId": "xuesong-zhao", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G1-B04-S1", "title": "AI: We are only scraping the surface", "date": "2023-08-14", "url": "https://www.polarcapital.co.uk/static/documents/Polar_Capital_Artificial_Intelligence_Fund_-_August_2023.pdf", "authors": "Xuesong Zhao", "summary": "把独有数据及非科技采用者纳入AI受益研究，考察技术如何改变成本和商业模式。", "access": "2026-10-09 原发布者PDF第1、4–5页，末页正文明确本人署名与日期。", "retrieval_level": "公开正文已读；归属与读取边界见access" }, { "id": "O9G1-B04-S2", "title": "Artificial Intelligence Fund video transcript", "date": "2026-05", "url": "https://www.polarcapital.co.uk/static/documents/Polar_Capital_Artificial_Intelligence_Video_Transcript_-_May_2026.pdf", "authors": "Xuesong Zhao", "summary": "软件功能可被复制时重估原有数据优势；区分盈利修正与估值重估。", "access": "2026-10-09 官方PDF下载转文本，实读第1–2页；日期来自文件名，正文无具体录制日。", "retrieval_level": "公开正文已读；归属与读取边界见access" } ], "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "读取2023年8月Zhao具名AI基金材料，以及2024年12月发表的团队2025展望全文。后者仅Global Technology Team署名；列出Zhao传记不足以证明每段为其个人观点，故仅一份个人实质材料，不升级。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.polarcapital.co.uk/static/documents/Polar_Capital_Artificial_Intelligence_Fund_-_August_2023.pdf", "https://view.ceros.com/polar/polar-capital-outlooks-uk-2025" ], "nextEvidence": "第二份Zhao个人具名正文或明确列为作者的共同研究；以及2026现职确认。" } ] }, { "id": "B05", "name": "Tony Kim", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Head of Global Technology team, Fundamental Equities", "currentRole": "Head of Global Technology team, Fundamental Equities", "firm": "BlackRock", "focus": "Technology and growth investing; candidate focus requires individual substantiation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/tracking-the-ai-investment-opportunity", "title": "Tracking the AI investment opportunity", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Head of Global Technology team, Fundamental Equities", "accessLevel": "primary text opened" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "资本开支预测非已实现需求", "功率与计算能力不能混用", "技术能力倍数缺统一基准" ], "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "atlasProfileId": "kim-blackrock", "analysis": { "id": "B100TK01", "profile": "kim-blackrock", "title": "把CapEx换算成GW之后，还缺什么？", "source_ids": [ "B100-TK1", "B100-TK2" ], "locator": "AI stack; 2026 supply constraints", "source_paraphrase": "Kim将AI拆为三层，并尝试将数据中心资本开支转换为功率需求来定位供给约束。", "attribution": "来源方法转述；下列数字为编辑教学场景，不复用其预测。", "model": "合成：GW=同口径建设预算/每GW造价；可用容量再受通电进度约束。", "boundary": "建设、IT容量、设施容量和计算能力必须各自定义。", "counterexample": "预算包括设备更新而非新GW，或造价下降。", "test": "资本支出构成、PUE、通电验收、部署与利用率。", "question": "合成：新增设施预算800亿美元，每GW设施总造价400亿美元；理论新增GW多少？", "constraint": "其中200亿美元是存量设备更新，其余建设只有75%按期通电；年末新增通电GW多少？", "transfer": "新CPU集群100MW设施功率，PUE1.25；每台IT功率2kW，可容纳多少台？这能否直接推出核心利用率？", "tags": [ "F18", "F7", "F14" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic teaching case", "forecast_outcome": "未进行预测结果/投资业绩审计" }, "priority": true, "profileId": "kim-blackrock", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "B100-TK1", "title": "At the frontier: Insight on AI and technology stocks", "date": "2025-09-11", "url": "https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/insight-on-ai-and-technology-stocks", "access": "2026-10-07读取官方嵌入访谈文字；未以音频逐字比对。", "authors": "Tony Kim, Michael Gates; host Oscar Pulido", "summary": "Kim以基础设施、智能模型、应用服务三层描述AI投资，强调资本强度和技术扩散。" }, { "id": "B100-TK2", "title": "Tracking the AI investment opportunity", "date": null, "url": "https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/tracking-the-ai-investment-opportunity", "access": "2026-10-07读取官方访谈文字正文；涉及2026年技术巡访，页面引注截至2026年7月，未找到明确发布日期。", "authors": "Tony Kim; host Oscar Pulido", "summary": "Kim把数据中心投入换算为功率及供应链需求，并比较三层AI价值捕获；这些是其预测与解释，非已实现事实。" } ] }, { "id": "B06", "name": "Reid Menge", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Managing Director; head of Fundamental US Growth Team; co-PM Technology equity portfolios", "currentRole": "Managing Director; head of Fundamental US Growth Team; co-PM Technology equity portfolios", "firm": "BlackRock", "focus": "Fundamental US growth and global technology equity", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/biographies/reid-menge", "title": "Reid Menge", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Managing Director; head of Fundamental US Growth Team; co-PM Technology equity portfolios", "accessLevel": "primary identity text opened and read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得完整持仓、交易或模型；未审计预测结果及风险调整业绩", "来源身份与现职分列；历史职务不外推至2026年10月" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "reid-menge", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "reid-menge", "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "analysis": { "id": "R2B1-B06-01", "profile": "reid-menge", "title": "更早获得算力值多少现金？", "source_ids": [ "R2B1-ME26Q2", "R2B1-ME26SP" ], "locator": "BlackRock Technology Opportunities Fund commentary：2026-10-08 读取PDF第1–2页；采用文件内Q2 2026日期而非搜索索引日期。；The Bid: Space — The Final Investing Frontier：2026-10-08 读取第272集官方完整文字稿中Menge发言；栏目滚动页面，标题用于定位。", "source_paraphrase": "团队关注推理效率、代理工作负载和可度量资本回报，偏好已显现商业化及持久优势。 / 把成本下降、能力提升和需求结合，同时强调发射执行、太空环境和地面通电时间；太空算力判断属预测。", "attribution": "来源为具名公开论证或显式团队共著；以下数字、模型和三阶段练习完全为编辑合成，不是本人预测或原问答。", "model": "NPV=折现后净现金流−初始成本。", "boundary": "纯合成工程项目，非太空计算实际成本或可行性证明。", "counterexample": "更早投产的收入可能不足补偿额外资本投入。", "test": "核实可用时间、达标率、网络成本和可比工作负载。", "question": "地面方案今天成本100，第2、3年末各获净现金流80（已扣运维、税费及后续资本开支）；另一方案今天成本130，第1、2年末各获同口径净现金流80。折现率10%，无残值，求两方案NPV。", "constraint": "第二方案只有80%概率获得全部所述收入，失败无收入且成本不返还；期望NPV多少？", "transfer": "云迁移今天花20，未来两年末各省12，折现率10%；仅从这些现金流看是否创造价值？", "tags": [ "F6", "F16", "F18" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic teaching case", "forecast_outcome": "未进行预测结果/投资业绩审计" }, "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已读两份实质正文并生成方法样本与独立三阶段合成练习；含共同署名材料，个人归属严格受限。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/fund-commentary/oef-technology-opportunities-fund-qtd-commentary.pdf", "https://www.blackrock.com/uk/solutions/podcasts/the-bid" ], "nextEvidence": "补当前职位确认、完整估值模型与预测结果；不影响已读方法样本。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B1-ME26Q2", "title": "BlackRock Technology Opportunities Fund commentary", "date": "2026-06-30", "authors": "Tony Kim and Reid Menge；组合管理团队共同材料", "url": "https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/fund-commentary/oef-technology-opportunities-fund-qtd-commentary.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08 读取PDF第1–2页；采用文件内Q2 2026日期而非搜索索引日期。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "团队关注推理效率、代理工作负载和可度量资本回报，偏好已显现商业化及持久优势。", "date_basis": "报告期末；精确发布日期未核" }, { "id": "R2B1-ME26SP", "title": "The Bid: Space — The Final Investing Frontier", "date": "2026-09-25", "authors": "Reid Menge受访；BlackRock The Bid", "url": "https://www.blackrock.com/uk/solutions/podcasts/the-bid", "access": "2026-10-08 读取第272集官方完整文字稿中Menge发言；栏目滚动页面，标题用于定位。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "把成本下降、能力提升和需求结合，同时强调发射执行、太空环境和地面通电时间；太空算力判断属预测。" } ] }, { "id": "B07", "name": "Alison Porter", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Portfolio Manager, Global Technology Leaders", "currentRole": "Portfolio Manager, Global Technology Leaders", "firm": "Janus Henderson", "focus": "政策冲击 → 需求与流动性 → 估值纪律", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.janushenderson.com/en-gb/investor/article/riding-the-ai-wave-how-can-tech-investors-harness-change-and-volatility/", "title": "Riding the AI wave", "date": "2025-12-04", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Portfolio Manager, Global Technology Leaders", "accessLevel": "primary text opened" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "个人与团队贡献无法逐句拆分", "政策为历史时点", "未核验机构底层估值模型" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "porter-janus", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "porter-janus", "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8BAS02", "title": "Tech stocks and tariffs: 5 key considerations for investors", "date": "2025-04-09", "url": "https://www.janushenderson.com/en-gb/investor/article/tech-stocks-and-tariffs-5-key-considerations-for-investors/", "authors": "Alison Porter, Graeme Clark and Richard Clode", "summary": "团队区分直接关税影响与需求、信心和流动性的间接冲击。", "access": "2026-10-08 新读取官方原文；正文五项考虑与买入时机段落、作者区；历史政策判断仅按2025-04-09口径，不代表现行关税。" }, { "id": "B100-RC2", "title": "Riding the AI wave: How can tech investors harness change and volatility?", "date": "2025-12-04", "url": "https://www.janushenderson.com/en-gb/investor/article/riding-the-ai-wave-how-can-tech-investors-harness-change-and-volatility/", "access": "2026-10-07读取文章全文；团队共同署名，不把所有句子归为Clode个人原话。", "authors": "Alison Porter, Graeme Clark and Richard Clode", "summary": "团队预计推理、记忆与物理AI扩大算力需求，同时关注许可、电力、施工限制、循环投资和亏损科技股炒作。" } ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_id": "O8BAS02", "claim": "团队区分政策事件和经济风险；关注间接需求及流动性。", "locator": "五项考虑1–5；Is now a buying opportunity?", "read_scope": "文章完整分析正文与作者区", "evidence_state": "newly-read primary" }, { "source_id": "B100-RC2", "claim": "团队提示电力施工约束和投资循环。", "locator": "AI is transformative；Why do we think skepticism about AI valuations is healthy?", "read_scope": "上述两节及日期署名；图表未复算", "evidence_state": "re-read primary, existing source ID" } ] }, { "id": "B08", "name": "Graeme Clark", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Portfolio Manager, Global Technology Leaders", "currentRole": "Portfolio Manager, Global Technology Leaders", "firm": "Janus Henderson", "focus": "AI替代叙事 → 工作流依赖 → 可收费收入", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.janushenderson.com/en-gb/investor/article/riding-the-ai-wave-how-can-tech-investors-harness-change-and-volatility/", "title": "Riding the AI wave", "date": "2025-12-04", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Portfolio Manager, Global Technology Leaders", "accessLevel": "primary text opened" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "AI代理实际收费模式需逐公司核验", "核心系统难替代不等于旧收入安全", "市场下跌的因果未独立验证" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "clark-janus", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "clark-janus", "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8BAS02", "title": "Tech stocks and tariffs: 5 key considerations for investors", "date": "2025-04-09", "url": "https://www.janushenderson.com/en-gb/investor/article/tech-stocks-and-tariffs-5-key-considerations-for-investors/", "authors": "Alison Porter, Graeme Clark and Richard Clode", "summary": "团队区分直接关税影响与需求、信心和流动性的间接冲击。", "access": "2026-10-08 新读取官方原文；正文五项考虑与买入时机段落、作者区；历史政策判断仅按2025-04-09口径，不代表现行关税。" }, { "id": "O8BAS01", "title": "Quick View: Has AI really eaten software?", "date": "2026-02-04", "url": "https://www.janushenderson.com/en-gb/investor/article/quick-view-has-ai-really-eaten-software/", "authors": "Graeme Clark", "summary": "讨论AI对席位收入、核心系统与附加模块的不同影响；业务依赖不自动消除商业模式风险。", "access": "2026-10-08 新读取官方原文；正文 Key takeaways 至 concluding paragraph，网页段落125–142；未观看视频或独立核查厂商迁移速度。" } ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_id": "O8BAS01", "claim": "个人文章区分AI席位、核心系统迁移和模块收入，认为企业上下文仍重要。", "locator": "What are our views on the three main concerns；What does this mean", "read_scope": "完整正文，不验证文中第三方产品性能", "evidence_state": "newly-read primary" }, { "source_id": "O8BAS02", "claim": "共同讨论间接需求风险。", "locator": "Considerations 2–3", "read_scope": "完整分析正文及共同作者区", "evidence_state": "newly-read primary" } ] }, { "id": "B09", "name": "Richard Clode", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Portfolio Manager, Global Technology Leaders", "currentRole": "Portfolio Manager, Global Technology Leaders", "firm": "Janus Henderson", "focus": "Technology and growth investing; candidate focus requires individual substantiation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.janushenderson.com/en-gb/investor/article/riding-the-ai-wave-how-can-tech-investors-harness-change-and-volatility/", "title": "Riding the AI wave", "date": "2025-12-04", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Portfolio Manager, Global Technology Leaders", "accessLevel": "primary text opened" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "共同文章贡献未拆到个人", "未复算图表数据", "资金循环对终端需求影响仍须核验" ], "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "atlasProfileId": "clode-janus", "analysis": { "id": "B100RC01", "profile": "clode-janus", "title": "盈利增长不等于估值回报", "source_ids": [ "B100-RC1", "B100-RC2" ], "locator": "Valuation process; skepticism about AI valuations", "source_paraphrase": "Clode保留PE与FCF收益率估值纪律；团队提醒高增长中仍可能出现循环投资和局部炒作。", "attribution": "来源观点转述；回报模型和参数是编辑合成。", "model": "合成：总回报=(终值EPS×终值PE+股息)/买入价−1。", "boundary": "盈利质量、股本变动与维持性资本支出仍须核验。", "counterexample": "增长以追加资本和稀释融资换取，现金回报较弱。", "test": "应收、SBC、现金转换和客户融资依赖。", "question": "合成：初始EPS5、PE40；一年后EPS6.5、PE30、无股息；回报多少？", "constraint": "报告FCF40，但其中10为一次性客户预收，市值800；报告及调整后FCF收益率是多少？", "transfer": "芯片供应商利润增长30%，客户CapEx却由供应商贷款支持；需要哪些额外证据？", "tags": [ "F12", "F11", "F21" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic teaching case", "forecast_outcome": "未进行预测结果/投资业绩审计" }, "priority": true, "profileId": "clode-janus", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "B100-RC1", "title": "Are tech sector investors too bullish on AI’s promise?", "date": "2025-08-13", "url": "https://www.janushenderson.com/en-ch/investor/article/are-tech-sector-investors-too-bullish-on-ais-promise/", "access": "2026-10-07读取全文Q&A；图表底层数据未独立复算。", "authors": "Richard Clode", "summary": "Clode沿用PE与FCF收益率，认为利润、资产负债表及使用场景比单纯泡沫类比更关键。" }, { "id": "B100-RC2", "title": "Riding the AI wave: How can tech investors harness change and volatility?", "date": "2025-12-04", "url": "https://www.janushenderson.com/en-gb/investor/article/riding-the-ai-wave-how-can-tech-investors-harness-change-and-volatility/", "access": "2026-10-07读取文章全文；团队共同署名，不把所有句子归为Clode个人原话。", "authors": "Alison Porter, Graeme Clark and Richard Clode", "summary": "团队预计推理、记忆与物理AI扩大算力需求，同时关注许可、电力、施工限制、循环投资和亏损科技股炒作。" } ] }, { "id": "B10", "name": "Mike Seidenberg", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Lead Portfolio Manager, Allianz Technology Trust; senior PM at Voya IM (2024 annual report)", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Voya Investment Management", "focus": "Technology and growth investing; candidate focus requires individual substantiation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.allianztechnologytrust.com/en-gb/about-us", "title": "About Us", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Lead Portfolio Manager, Allianz Technology Trust", "accessLevel": "official search excerpt" }, { "url": "https://insights.allianzgi.com/story/att-annual-financial-report-2024/page/5", "title": "ATT Annual Financial Report 2024 — Meet the Managers", "date": "2024", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Lead Portfolio Manager, Allianz Technology Trust; senior PM at Voya IM (2024 annual report); confirms 2022 team transfer to Voya", "accessLevel": "primary annual report identity section opened and read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未审计预测准确率或风险调整业绩；两份材料仅支持有限方法样本", "来源时期身份不自动外推至2026年10月现职" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "mike-seidenberg", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "补读两份不同日期的实质材料，建立本人方法样本及独立三阶段合成练习。机器转录未作音频复核；组合情景仅为教学，不是经理风险预测。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/news/industry-news/mike-seidenberg-i-couldnt-sleep-with-full-index-weights-to-magnificent-seven", "https://www.fundcalibre.com/episode-371-finding-real-value-in-tech-investing/" ], "nextEvidence": "补更多具名材料、现职和预测检验，暂不认证稳定个人方法。" }, "atlasProfileId": "mike-seidenberg", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G1-B10-S1", "title": "I couldn’t sleep with full index weights to Magnificent Seven", "date": "2024-10-21", "url": "https://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/news/industry-news/mike-seidenberg-i-couldnt-sleep-with-full-index-weights-to-magnificent-seven", "authors": "Mike Seidenberg", "summary": "承认低配巨头可能拖累相对表现，但把股东承受的集中风险纳入组合选择。", "access": "2026-10-09 AIC公开转载Citywire原访谈摘段；已读本人完整回答，仅该问答，不冒充一小时全片。", "retrieval_level": "公开正文已读；归属与读取边界见access" }, { "id": "O9G1-B10-S2", "title": "371. Finding real value in tech investing", "date": "2025-10-16", "url": "https://www.fundcalibre.com/episode-371-finding-real-value-in-tech-investing/", "authors": "Mike Seidenberg", "summary": "在高增长、合理估值增长和低估值可选性间配置；网络安全需求持续不保证供应商不会过时。", "access": "2026-10-09 原采访机构公开完整机器转录；实读mega-cap、AI、cyber和valuation段；2025-10-09录制，10-16发布；未核音频，转录有错误。", "retrieval_level": "公开正文已读；归属与读取边界见access" } ], "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "读取2024年度报告第6、7网页机构论述，涉及AI、网络安全、量子及估值风险；同一报告不能算两份，且未建立段落个人署名。下载2022文件实际为视频介绍页，无访谈正文；另一个视频页面直接读取失败。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://insights.allianzgi.com/story/att-annual-financial-report-2024/page/6", "https://insights.allianzgi.com/story/att-annual-financial-report-2024/page/7", "https://www.allianztechnologytrust.com/api/sitecore/ArticleFeature/DownloadEditorial?id=bdb54e3a0e214bc8942d7b3f96c692fa", "https://www.allianztechnologytrust.com/en-gb/videos-podcasts-and-reading/beyond-the-hype-a-disciplined-approach-to-tech-investing" ], "nextEvidence": "两份Mike具名管理报告或公开视频完整可读取问答，不以机构主题页替代个人论证。" } ] }, { "id": "B11", "name": "Paul Wick", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "CIO Seligman Investments; Equity Team Lead, Technology", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Columbia Threadneedle", "focus": "Technology and growth investing; candidate focus requires individual substantiation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.columbiathreadneedle.com/en/dk/institutional/insights/artificial-intelligence-and-the-economy-paradigm-shift-or-hype/", "title": "Artificial intelligence and the economy: paradigm shift or hype?", "date": "2023-09-27", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "CIO Seligman Investments; Equity Team Lead, Technology", "accessLevel": "primary text opened" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "需补2026任职及最新独立观点", "两主题不足证明统一稳定方法", "未审计预测绩效" ], "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "atlasProfileId": "wick-seligman", "analysis": { "id": "B100PW01", "profile": "wick-seligman", "title": "高利用率下的小幅需求增长为何放大缺口？", "source_ids": [ "B100-PW1", "B100-PW2" ], "locator": "2021 first and final questions; 2023 internet versus AI distinction", "source_paraphrase": "Wick将代工集中、高利用率与供给余量减少相连；其后讨论AI对知识工作的用途。", "attribution": "来源转述；产能数字及采购练习为编辑合成。", "model": "合成：新需求=原产能×原利用率×(1+需求增幅)；缺口=max(新需求−有效产能,0)。", "boundary": "不同节点、产品及封装不能无条件互换。", "counterexample": "客户重复下单，名义短缺不代表最终消费。", "test": "终端消耗、库存、可取消订单、合格产能和交货周期。", "question": "合成：月产能100万片，利用率95%，需求增长10%；新增需求与超产能缺口各多少？", "constraint": "扩产10万片但只完成60%良率等效产能；所有产能及需求使用相同良品等效口径，需求不变，还缺多少？", "transfer": "CPU封装月产能100万颗、晶圆可供120万颗；增加20%晶圆能否提升出货？", "tags": [ "F7", "F18", "F14" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic teaching case", "forecast_outcome": "未进行预测结果/投资业绩审计" }, "priority": true, "profileId": "wick-seligman", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "B100-PW1", "title": "A deep dive into the global chip shortage — A roundtable discussion", "date": "2021-06", "url": "https://www.columbiathreadneedle.com/uploads/2021/07/99c0a1fbeae011bf80eda27cfde9f89b/hk_j31619-semicondcutor-chip-shortage-apac.pdf", "access": "2026-10-07读取PDF第1至3页全部圆桌问答；图表未复算，第4页为法律说明。", "authors": "Paul Wick, Rahul Narang, Sanjay Devgan, David Egan, Charles Mann", "summary": "Wick解释代工集中与高利用率减少供给余量，短期强需求又会诱发后续产能扩张。" }, { "id": "B100-PW2", "title": "Artificial intelligence and the economy: paradigm shift or hype?", "date": "2023-09-27", "url": "https://www.columbiathreadneedle.com/en/dk/institutional/insights/artificial-intelligence-and-the-economy-paradigm-shift-or-hype/", "access": "2026-10-07读取网页全部圆桌正文，区分三位受访者。", "authors": "Paul Wick, Rahul Narang and Sanjay Devgan", "summary": "Wick将生成式AI视为知识工作工具，与互联网和移动设备的分发作用有所区别。" } ] }, { "id": "B12", "name": "Rahul Narang", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Portfolio Manager, Technology", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Columbia Threadneedle", "focus": "终端行为变化 → 需求结构 → 技术采用", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.columbiathreadneedle.com/en/dk/institutional/insights/artificial-intelligence-and-the-economy-paradigm-shift-or-hype/", "title": "Artificial intelligence and the economy: paradigm shift or hype?", "date": "2023-09-27", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Portfolio Manager, Technology", "accessLevel": "primary text opened" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "2026现职未核验", "宏观增益缺公司份额桥", "没有预测绩效审计" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "narang-columbia", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "narang-columbia", "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "B100-PW1", "title": "A deep dive into the global chip shortage — A roundtable discussion", "date": "2021-06", "url": "https://www.columbiathreadneedle.com/uploads/2021/07/99c0a1fbeae011bf80eda27cfde9f89b/hk_j31619-semicondcutor-chip-shortage-apac.pdf", "access": "2026-10-07读取PDF第1至3页全部圆桌问答；图表未复算，第4页为法律说明。", "authors": "Paul Wick, Rahul Narang, Sanjay Devgan, David Egan, Charles Mann", "summary": "Wick解释代工集中与高利用率减少供给余量，短期强需求又会诱发后续产能扩张。" }, { "id": "B100-PW2", "title": "Artificial intelligence and the economy: paradigm shift or hype?", "date": "2023-09-27", "url": "https://www.columbiathreadneedle.com/en/dk/institutional/insights/artificial-intelligence-and-the-economy-paradigm-shift-or-hype/", "access": "2026-10-07读取网页全部圆桌正文，区分三位受访者。", "authors": "Paul Wick, Rahul Narang and Sanjay Devgan", "summary": "Wick将生成式AI视为知识工作工具，与互联网和移动设备的分发作用有所区别。" } ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_id": "B100-PW1", "claim": "Narang自己回答指出疫情需求错判与科技家庭消费韧性。", "locator": "PDF printed page2 COVID answer；page3 long-term trends answer", "read_scope": "PDF页1–3文字；其他说话者未归其名下", "evidence_state": "re-read primary, existing source ID" }, { "source_id": "B100-PW2", "claim": "Narang自己回答讨论AI平台转换、企业用途与采用速度。", "locator": "How does advent compare；areas of opportunity；How fast", "read_scope": "官方Q&A正文相关Narang回答；不采用Wick关于控制权的表述", "evidence_state": "re-read primary, existing source ID" } ] }, { "id": "B13", "name": "Shekhar Pramanick", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "2004 Schwab Soundview卖方分析师；2022 Columbia Seligman买方经理；2025年末STK Technology Team Member", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Columbia Threadneedle", "focus": "Technology and growth investing; candidate focus requires individual substantiation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/892538/000119312516580011/d174923d497k.htm", "title": "Fund summary prospectus", "date": "2016-05-01", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Co-manager since 2015, SunAmerica Series Trust Technology Portfolio, Columbia subadviser (2016 prospectus)", "accessLevel": "primary identity text opened and read" }, { "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1471420/000119312526096585/d69918dncsr.htm", "title": "Columbia Seligman Premium Technology Growth Fund 2025 Annual Report", "date": "2025-12-31", "accessed": "2026-10-09", "whatVerified": "第2页及Item 8列其为Technology Team Member/Portfolio Manager；日期为报告期末，非发表日。", "accessLevel": "官方SEC年报正文实读" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未审计预测准确率或风险调整业绩；两份材料仅支持有限方法样本", "来源时期身份不自动外推至2026年10月现职" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "shekhar-pramanick", "roleNote": "候选归买方池按较新买方经历；方法材料跨角色，2004提问清楚标为卖方，不用历史职务确认现职。", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "补读TSMC 2004 Q2官方具名问答，配2022买方原采访，完成跨角色的有限方法样本。2004提问来自Schwab Soundview卖方时期，2022来自Columbia Seligman买方时期；不是两份买方著述，不认证长期稳定方法。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://investor.tsmc.com/chinese/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/english/2004/Q2/04Q2%20Conf%20Call-Transcript.pdf", "https://fortune.com/2022/01/20/metaverse-investing-13-stocks-to-buy-in-2022/" ], "nextEvidence": "补更多具名材料、现职和预测检验，暂不认证稳定个人方法。" }, "atlasProfileId": "shekhar-pramanick", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G1-B13-S1", "title": "TSMC Q2 2004 Earnings Conference Call — Pramanick Q&A", "date": "2004-07-29", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/chinese/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/english/2004/Q2/04Q2%20Conf%20Call-Transcript.pdf", "authors": "Shekhar Pramanick", "summary": "卖方时期追问出货指引是否已考虑库存风险，并追问收入增长能否转成毛利率改善。", "access": "2026-10-09 TSMC IR官方承载的Thomson完整逐字稿，下载后读第7–8页本人具名提问；2004-07-29为会议日；当时Schwab Soundview。管理层回答不归给提问人。", "retrieval_level": "公开正文已读；归属与读取边界见access" }, { "id": "O9G1-B13-S2", "title": "Investing in the metaverse: 13 stocks to buy for 2022 — attributed interview portions", "date": "2022-01-20", "url": "https://fortune.com/2022/01/20/metaverse-investing-13-stocks-to-buy-in-2022/", "authors": "Shekhar Pramanick", "summary": "考察芯片需求与公司盈利。", "access": "2026-10-09 Fortune原采访正文The infrastructure bet节，仅使用Pramanick具名段；其他受访者观点排除。本人为Columbia Seligman买方经理。", "retrieval_level": "公开正文已读；归属与读取边界见access" } ], "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "核查SEC 2024基金简式招募文件，并保留已读2016历史经理身份；前者为基金目标/风险/管理等监管文件，未得到两份个人方法正文。搜索找到历史卖方短引语，不能冒充买方投资样本。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1352280/000119312524224357/d844722d497k.htm", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/892538/000119312516580011/d174923d497k.htm" ], "nextEvidence": "当前买方任职的明确日期证据及两份具名投资论证；招募说明书与旧卖方短引语不足。" } ] }, { "id": "B14", "name": "Jonathan Curtis", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Portfolio Manager; co-manager Franklin Technology Fund", "currentRole": "Portfolio Manager; co-manager Franklin Technology Fund", "firm": "Franklin Templeton", "focus": "采用者生产率 → 可兑现公司收益 → 已计价程度", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.franklintempleton.com/profiles/jonathan-curtis", "title": "Jonathan Curtis", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Portfolio Manager; co-manager Franklin Technology Fund; CIO is historical, subsequently returned to dedicated investing role", "accessLevel": "primary identity text opened and read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "完整白皮书未取得", "宏观生产率并非可直接销售TAM", "未核验其收益和定价判断" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "curtis-franklin", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "curtis-franklin", "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8BAS09", "title": "Podcast: Are investors underestimating AI?", "date": "2025-07-11", "url": "https://www.franklintempleton.com/corporate/articles/2025/equity/are-investors-underestimating-ai", "authors": "Jonathan Curtis; host John Przygocki", "summary": "讨论AI生产率的公司利润桥、研究工具与人类投资判断边界。", "access": "2026-10-08 新读取官方完整文字稿；官方Franklin Equity Insights索引标示2025-07-11发布，文末观点截至2025-07-01；未与音频校对。" }, { "id": "O8BAS10", "title": "The AI productivity boom that no one is talking about", "date": "2025-07-24", "url": "https://www.franklintempleton.co.uk/articles/2025/equity/the-ai-productivity-boom-that-no-one-is-talking-about", "authors": "Jonathan Curtis", "summary": "具名文章将关注从AI供给商扩展到各行业采用者。", "access": "2026-10-08 新读取官方原文；新读取官网文章正文及结论；24 July 2025来自官方Franklin Equity Insights索引；所链PDF下载失败，未声称读完整白皮书。" } ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_id": "O8BAS09", "claim": "区分AI销售收入、采用者效率与金融研究工具的作用。", "locator": "Opening answers；financial services；quantify knowledge-worker impact", "read_scope": "完整官方文字稿；文末as-of July1日期", "evidence_state": "newly-read primary transcript" }, { "source_id": "O8BAS10", "claim": "将AI研究扩展到采用技术的非科技企业。", "locator": "Key takeaways；Why AI’s biggest investment opportunity is not in tech；Our conclusion", "read_scope": "官网短文全部正文；所链完整白皮书未取得", "evidence_state": "newly-read primary short article" } ] }, { "id": "B15", "name": "Denny Fish", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Portfolio Manager / Research Analyst", "currentRole": "Portfolio Manager / Research Analyst", "firm": "Janus Henderson", "focus": "AI供给建设 → 部署与使用 → 采用者利润率", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.janushenderson.com/en-de/institutional/who-we-are/our-people/", "title": "Our people", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Current official people directory lists Denny Fish as Portfolio Manager / Research Analyst", "accessLevel": "primary identity text opened and read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "满载不等于高价付费使用", "需求和盈利判断未独立审计", "长期AGI叙事不是确定现金流" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "fish-janus", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "fish-janus", "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8BAS03", "title": "2025: The year AI comes of age", "date": "2025-08-21", "url": "https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/offshore/article/2025-the-year-ai-comes-of-age/", "authors": "Denny Fish", "summary": "把推理算力需求、部署变现及采用者利润率连接，同时提示被替代企业风险。", "access": "2026-10-08 新读取官方原文；正文 If you build it、Enablers and early adopters、Schumpeter 章节；图表原始数据未复算。" }, { "id": "O8BAS04", "title": "Still early innings in the AI investment cycle", "date": "2025-12-02", "url": "https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/institutional/article/still-early-innings-in-the-ai-investment-cycle/", "authors": "Denny Fish", "summary": "提出使能者、增强者、终端使用者三层，并将电力和施工时滞视作供给调节因素。", "access": "2026-10-08 新读取官方原文；官方完整视频文字稿段落99–112；未与音频逐字校对。满载与避免繁荣衰退是作者判断，非独立验证事实。" } ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_id": "O8BAS03", "claim": "Fish将推理计算、部署变现和采用者利润改善相连。", "locator": "If you build it；Enablers and early adopters", "read_scope": "正文全部分析段，图表底数未复算", "evidence_state": "newly-read primary" }, { "source_id": "O8BAS04", "claim": "Fish以三层受益者与建设、电力时滞解释AI扩散。", "locator": "官方transcript第2–10段", "read_scope": "完整嵌入文字稿，未听音频", "evidence_state": "newly-read primary" } ] }, { "id": "B16", "name": "Adam Benjamin", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Former FSELX Portfolio Manager (no longer serving by July 15 2026)", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Fidelity Investments", "focus": "Technology and growth investing; candidate focus requires individual substantiation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320351/000032035126000312/filing12829.htm", "title": "Fidelity Select Semiconductors summary prospectus supplement", "date": "2026-07-15", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Former FSELX Portfolio Manager (no longer serving by July 15 2026)", "accessLevel": "primary text opened" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "当前其他任职待核实", "滚动PDF须保存时点", "未独立审计基金回报或预测绩效" ], "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "atlasProfileId": "benjamin-fidelity", "analysis": { "id": "B100AB01", "profile": "benjamin-fidelity", "title": "库存下降何时才能叫复苏？", "source_ids": [ "B100-AB1", "B100-AB2" ], "locator": "2026 sector outlook non-AI paragraph; Q&A non-AI recovery sidebar", "source_paraphrase": "Benjamin先判断非AI去库存接近结束，随后承认前两年复苏预期过早，并以库存、需求和供给重新论证。", "attribution": "来源判断按2026年1—2月时点转述；下面为编辑合成库存模型。", "model": "合成：期末库存=期初库存+进货−消耗；库存消化和终端增长分开。", "boundary": "供应商收入、渠道采购和终端消耗不是同一变量。", "counterexample": "库存天数因价格上涨或减产下降，终端需求未改善。", "test": "单位库存、sell-through、渠道补库、价格及同口径季度序列。", "question": "合成：渠道期初库存30万颗，季度进货80万，终端消耗100万；期末库存多少？能证明需求增长吗？", "constraint": "下季需求仍100万，目标期末库存20万；采购需多少，较本季增长多少？", "transfer": "AI预算从30增至50、总IT预算由100到110；非AI预算变化多少？可以直接用AI增幅预测CPU采购吗？", "tags": [ "F6", "F14", "F23" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic teaching case", "forecast_outcome": "未进行预测结果/投资业绩审计" }, "priority": true, "profileId": "benjamin-fidelity", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "B100-AB1", "title": "Information technology sector", "date": "2026-01-07", "url": "https://institutional.fidelity.com/advisors/insights/spotlights/equity-sector-performance-outlook/information-technology-sector", "access": "2026-10-07读取官方全文；持仓说明截至2025-11-30，文内预测保留原时点。", "authors": "Adam Benjamin", "summary": "Benjamin认为持续模型升级支撑AI基础设施，但固定IT预算可能挤压服务支出、模型应用层可能冲击软件。" }, { "id": "B100-AB2", "title": "Fidelity Select Semiconductors Portfolio — Portfolio Manager Q&A as of February 28, 2026", "date": "2026-02-28", "url": "https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/proxy/content?literatureURL=%2FRD_QAA_008.PDF", "access": "2026-10-07读取完整投资方法与问答正文（PDF第2至4页）；未对全9页绩效表与财务数据做独立审计。URL为滚动文件，日期按正文。", "authors": "Adam Benjamin / Fidelity", "summary": "Benjamin承认过去两年非AI复苏判断过早，重新依据库存、需求和供应变化审视周期，并讨论偏离指数的收益代价。" } ] }, { "id": "B17", "name": "Hyun Ho Sohn", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Portfolio Manager, Fidelity International (Outlook 2026, prepared in 2025)", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Fidelity International", "focus": "Global technology investing; AI, software and semiconductor equipment (2026 outlook contribution)", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.fidelityinternational.com/static/master/media/pdf/outlook/Fidelity-International-Outlook-2026.pdf", "title": "Fidelity International Outlook 2026", "date": "2025", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "PDF printed page 13 / PDF index12 names Hyun Ho Sohn as Portfolio Manager after a first-person technology investment outlook. Exact Global Technology mandate wording not established by this byline; role kept at supported level.", "accessLevel": "official source directly opened; relevant identity text read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得完整持仓、交易或模型；未审计预测结果及风险调整业绩", "来源身份与现职分列；历史职务不外推至2026年10月" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "hyun-ho-sohn", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "hyun-ho-sohn", "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "analysis": { "id": "R2B1-B17-01", "profile": "hyun-ho-sohn", "title": "工作流黏性能否转成续费收入？", "source_ids": [ "R2B1-SO26", "R2B1-SO26Q" ], "locator": "Fidelity International Outlook 2026：2026-10-08 读取印刷第13页/PDF索引12；准备年份2025，确切发布日期未核。；Global technology: Overdone risks and diverse opportunities：2026-10-08 读取全文具名问答；非RSMR独立研究，未比对原始录音。", "source_paraphrase": "担心资本密集度、外部融资与半导体估值透支周期，要求区分基础设施增长和投资回报。 / 指出企业软件工作流、数据、安全与集成形成阻力；用管理层、专家和内部IT调研检验AI替代速度。", "attribution": "来源为具名公开论证或显式团队共著；以下数字、模型和三阶段练习完全为编辑合成，不是本人预测或原问答。", "model": "续费收入=到期客户×留存率×基础价格+附加产品收入。", "boundary": "留存、附加付费及成本必须分别测量；不能用功能演示替代。", "counterexample": "AI功能很强但企业审批延长，客户也可能压缩席位。", "test": "匹配续约队列、集成工作、安全审查和实际付费附加率。", "question": "原100个合同，每合同100；次年95%续约，续约者20%另买20的AI产品。总收入多少，相对原收入如何？", "constraint": "留存变成85%，其余不变；总收入多少？", "transfer": "工业服务有200个到期客户、续约90%，其中30%买50的升级包，基础价200；总收入多少？", "tags": [ "F6", "F16", "F18" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic teaching case", "forecast_outcome": "未进行预测结果/投资业绩审计" }, "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已读两份实质正文并生成方法样本与独立三阶段合成练习；保留公开材料和历史身份边界。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.fidelityinternational.com/static/master/media/pdf/outlook/Fidelity-International-Outlook-2026.pdf", "https://www.rsmr.co.uk/rsmr-connected/industry-insights/fidelity/global-technology-overdone-risks-and-diverse-opportunities/" ], "nextEvidence": "补当前职位确认、完整估值模型与预测结果；不影响已读方法样本。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B1-SO26", "title": "Fidelity International Outlook 2026", "date": "2025", "authors": "Hyun Ho Sohn；展望合集中的具名个人段落", "url": "https://www.fidelityinternational.com/static/master/media/pdf/outlook/Fidelity-International-Outlook-2026.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08 读取印刷第13页/PDF索引12；准备年份2025，确切发布日期未核。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "担心资本密集度、外部融资与半导体估值透支周期，要求区分基础设施增长和投资回报。", "date_basis": "展望准备年份；精确发布日期未核" }, { "id": "R2B1-SO26Q", "title": "Global technology: Overdone risks and diverse opportunities", "date": "2026-04-05", "authors": "Hyun Ho Sohn问答；Fidelity供稿，RSMR合作平台转载", "url": "https://www.rsmr.co.uk/rsmr-connected/industry-insights/fidelity/global-technology-overdone-risks-and-diverse-opportunities/", "access": "2026-10-08 读取全文具名问答；非RSMR独立研究，未比对原始录音。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "指出企业软件工作流、数据、安全与集成形成阻力；用管理层、专家和内部IT调研检验AI替代速度。" } ] }, { "id": "B18", "name": "Josh Spencer", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Historical Global Technology Fund portfolio manager (2017 release; in role since 2012-06-01)", "currentRole": null, "firm": "T. Rowe Price", "focus": "Technology and growth investing; candidate focus requires individual substantiation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://troweprice.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/t-rowe-price-closes-global-technology-fund-new-investors", "title": "Global Technology Fund closes to new investors", "date": "2017-09-29", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Official release dated 2017-09-29 explicitly names Josh Spencer as portfolio manager since 2012-06-01 and includes his attributed quote. Historical identity only; current mandate not established.", "accessLevel": "official source directly opened; relevant identity text read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未审计预测准确率或风险调整业绩；两份材料仅支持有限方法样本", "来源时期身份不自动外推至2026年10月现职" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "josh-spencer", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "补读两份不同日期的实质材料，建立本人方法样本及独立三阶段合成练习。历史技术基金方法样本，不把2017/2018职务冒充现职；原文看多不等于事后验证。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/ide/articles/pdfs/258759_PP_Cloud_Computing.pdf", "https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/tpd/Articles/PDFs/semiconductor-stocks-buying-when-the-chips-are-down.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "补更多具名材料、现职和预测检验，暂不认证稳定个人方法。" }, "atlasProfileId": "josh-spencer", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G1-B18-S1", "title": "Cloud computing: still in its early stages and spreading globally", "date": "2017-09", "url": "https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/ide/articles/pdfs/258759_PP_Cloud_Computing.pdf", "authors": "Josh Spencer", "summary": "将客户成本、扩容弹性与SaaS稳态利润率结合，同时保留估值约束。", "access": "2026-10-09 官方PDF第1–3页实质正文，本人具名；PDF封面2017-09，非搜索抓取年份。", "retrieval_level": "公开正文已读；归属与读取边界见access" }, { "id": "O9G1-B18-S2", "title": "Semiconductor stocks: buying when the chips are down", "date": "2018-11", "url": "https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/tpd/Articles/PDFs/semiconductor-stocks-buying-when-the-chips-are-down.pdf", "authors": "Josh Spencer", "summary": "用供给集中度、扩产资本强度和终端内容增长检验周期底部利润，而非只外推峰值。", "access": "2026-10-09 官方PDF第1–3页，本人具名，2018-11；历史判断未作事后成功认证。", "retrieval_level": "公开正文已读；归属与读取边界见access" } ], "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "读取2017年12月T. Rowe Price AI文章第2–3页Spencer具名引语，关于算力成本、数据与人才；与Ken Allen同一机构文章，已按人区分。检索到2020年9月25日WealthTrack访谈入口，但本轮未取得完整口述正文，不把简介视作第二篇。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/tpd/Articles/PDFs/AI_Price_Perspective_NOV-17_GL_P4.pdf", "https://wealthtrack.com/next-generation-great-investor-josh-spencer-on-taking-over-t-rowe-prices-new-horizons-fund/" ], "nextEvidence": "读取WealthTrack完整原始采访或另一份Spencer具名管理问答；补当前New Horizons/small-cap角色。" } ] }, { "id": "B19", "name": "Ken Allen", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Investment analyst, large-cap value team; Global Technology advisory committee member", "currentRole": "Investment analyst, U.S. Equity large-cap value team (official biography observed 2026-10-07)", "firm": "T. Rowe Price", "focus": "Technology and growth investing; candidate focus requires individual substantiation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/de/de/bios/biodetails.bio-ken-allen.html", "title": "Ken Allen | Kurzbiografie | T. Rowe Price", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Directly read official German biography: investment analyst in U.S. Equity large-cap value team; member of Diversified Mid-Cap Growth and Global Technology Equity investment advisory committees. B.A., Colby College. Original Taiwan URL returned404 on detailed reread; replaced with working primary biography.", "accessLevel": "official source directly opened; relevant identity text read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得完整持仓、交易或模型；未审计预测结果及风险调整业绩", "来源身份与现职分列；历史职务不外推至2026年10月" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "ken-allen", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "ken-allen", "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "analysis": { "id": "R2B1-B19-01", "profile": "ken-allen", "title": "再投资降低当期现金，是否反而创造价值？", "source_ids": [ "R2B1-KE18", "R2B1-KE17" ], "locator": "Technology’s Golden Era：2026-10-08 读取PDF第1–3页Ken Allen问答。；Artificial Intelligence: A New Era of Opportunity：2026-10-08 读取第2–3页Allen具名段落；文件名NOV但采用正文December 2017。", "source_paraphrase": "重视持久业务、合理价格和中长期现金；看云规模优势同时保留本地部署需求。 / Allen强调云分发以及数据、算力和人才组合；其他经理的判断不归给Allen。", "attribution": "来源为具名公开论证或显式团队共著；以下数字、模型和三阶段练习完全为编辑合成，不是本人预测或原问答。", "model": "新增投资价值=新增现金流现值−投入。", "boundary": "只比较明确增量现金；永续假设极强且不包含竞争变化。", "counterexample": "增长投入若回报低于资本成本会侵蚀价值。", "test": "新增资本、归属利润、营运资金及维持性资本开支。", "question": "合成公司当前经营现金20，原无投资。今天新增投资50，从下一年起永续每年增加现金5，折现率8%。新增投资NPV多少？当期净现金多少？", "constraint": "新增现金只有3且其他不变；NPV多少？", "transfer": "电力设施今天投入80，下一年起永续现金8、折现率10%，无残值之外的其他现金；是否创造超额价值？", "tags": [ "F6", "F16", "F18" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic teaching case", "forecast_outcome": "未进行预测结果/投资业绩审计" }, "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已读两份实质正文并生成方法样本与独立三阶段合成练习；保留公开材料和历史身份边界。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/iinvestor/images/PricePt_dwnld_TechGoldenEra07302018.pdf", "https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/tpd/Articles/PDFs/AI_Price_Perspective_NOV-17_GL_P4.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "补当前职位确认、完整估值模型与预测结果；不影响已读方法样本。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B1-KE18", "title": "Technology’s Golden Era", "date": "2018-07", "authors": "Ken Allen问答；T. Rowe Price", "url": "https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/iinvestor/images/PricePt_dwnld_TechGoldenEra07302018.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08 读取PDF第1–3页Ken Allen问答。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "重视持久业务、合理价格和中长期现金；看云规模优势同时保留本地部署需求。" }, { "id": "R2B1-KE17", "title": "Artificial Intelligence: A New Era of Opportunity", "date": "2017-12", "authors": "T. Rowe Price机构文章；分别引述Ken Allen、Josh Spencer、Paul Greene", "url": "https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/tpd/Articles/PDFs/AI_Price_Perspective_NOV-17_GL_P4.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08 读取第2–3页Allen具名段落；文件名NOV但采用正文December 2017。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "Allen强调云分发以及数据、算力和人才组合；其他经理的判断不归给Allen。" } ] }, { "id": "B20", "name": "Dom Rizzo", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Global Technology Equity portfolio manager (dated official commentary, 2023-11-30)", "currentRole": null, "firm": "T. Rowe Price", "focus": "关键技术与结构增长 → 基本面改善 → 合理买入价格", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/sg/en/funds/sicav/global-technology-equity-fund.html?=Equity&productType=SICAV", "title": "Global Technology Equity Fund", "date": "2023-11-30", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Directly read fund page dated 2023-11-30 commentary labeling Dom Rizzo Portfolio Manager; cannot infer current mandate from this historical entry.", "accessLevel": "official source directly opened; relevant identity text read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "第二材料为主持人原始总结、非完整访谈逐字稿", "2026现职未重新核验", "不认证跨所有时期的固定方法" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "rizzo-trowe", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "rizzo-trowe", "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8BAS07", "title": "Meet The Manager — Dom Rizzo", "date": "2024-04", "url": "https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/uk/en/thinking/articles/2024/q2/meet-the-manager-dom-rizzo.html", "authors": "Dom Rizzo", "summary": "具名问答提出关键技术、结构增长、基本面改善与合理估值四项筛选。", "access": "2026-10-08 新读取官方原文；完整问答正文；页面仅标April 2024。" }, { "id": "O8BAS08", "title": "Behind the Markets Podcast: A Conversation with Dom Rizzo", "date": "2023-08-18", "url": "https://www.wisdomtree.com/us/insights/blog/behind-the-markets-podcast-a-conversation-with-dom-rizzo", "authors": "Christopher Gannatti, interviewing and summarizing Dom Rizzo", "summary": "采访主持人原始总结介绍Rizzo四项框架及硬件竞争中软件切换成本。", "access": "2026-10-08 新读取官方原文；主持人发布的完整文章，不是逐字稿；采访发生2023-08-11，未听音频。主张按主持人转述保留，非Rizzo原话。" } ], "source_evidence": [ { "source_id": "O8BAS07", "claim": "四项选择框架，并承认很难四项同时完美。", "locator": "Please explain your stock selection process", "read_scope": "完整官方问答", "evidence_state": "newly-read primary" }, { "source_id": "O8BAS08", "claim": "采访主持人总结框架，并讨论GPU硬件与CUDA切换壁垒。", "locator": "Framework for Company Evaluation；Semiconductors", "read_scope": "主持人原始文章全文；无音频核对", "evidence_state": "newly-read first-party interviewer account; not verbatim transcript" } ] }, { "id": "B21", "name": "Alan Tu", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Historical Portfolio Manager, Global Technology Fund (June2022 authored report)", "currentRole": null, "firm": "T. Rowe Price", "focus": "Technology and growth investing; candidate focus requires individual substantiation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/trp-ecl/global/en/ipc/assets/us-retail-intermediary/2022/june/investing-in-companies-at-the-start-of-the-runway-id0004907/Investing-in-Companies-at-the-Start-of-the-Runway.pdf", "title": "Investing in Companies at the Start of the Runway", "date": "2022-06", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Official authored PDF first-page byline identifies Alan Tu as Portfolio Manager, Global Technology Fund, June2022. Establishes historical buy-side technology identity. No current role inferred.", "accessLevel": "official source directly opened; relevant identity text read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得完整持仓、交易或模型；未审计预测结果及风险调整业绩", "来源身份与现职分列；历史职务不外推至2026年10月" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "alan-tu", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "alan-tu", "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "analysis": { "id": "R2B1-B21-01", "profile": "alan-tu", "title": "低摩擦获客是否改善客户经济性？", "source_ids": [ "R2B1-TU22", "R2B1-TU21" ], "locator": "Investing in Companies at the Start of the Runway：2026-10-08 读取PDF第1–4页。；Investing in the Infrastructure Behind the Digital Economy（日文官方译本）：2026-10-08 读取日文官方PDF第1–4页，保留共同署名；不把团队观点拆为Tu独著。", "source_paraphrase": "从产品进入市场方式、客户扩张和竞争优势寻找长增长跑道，同时要求估值纪律。 / 团队从软件、云、半导体设备与安全切入数字化基础设施，讨论竞争壁垒、增长基数及估值。", "attribution": "来源为具名公开论证或显式团队共著；以下数字、模型和三阶段练习完全为编辑合成，不是本人预测或原问答。", "model": "简化客户价值=未来客户毛贡献现值−获客成本。", "boundary": "本题只有两年且现金已扣交付成本，不可外推终身LTV。", "counterexample": "便宜获客若引入低留存客户，会低估替换成本。", "test": "同队列留存、客户扩张、支持成本与渠道费用。", "question": "产品自助获客成本40，第一年末毛现金30；80%客户第二年仍付毛现金30，其余无收入。折现率10%，两年后无价值；单客户NPV多少？", "constraint": "获客成本降到25，但第二年留存仅30%；新NPV更好吗？", "transfer": "设备商获客成本50，第一年末贡献40，第二年留存70%、贡献40，折现率10%；两年客户NPV？", "tags": [ "F6", "F16", "F18" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic teaching case", "forecast_outcome": "未进行预测结果/投资业绩审计" }, "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已读两份实质正文并生成方法样本与独立三阶段合成练习；含共同署名材料，个人归属严格受限。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/trp-ecl/global/en/ipc/assets/us-retail-intermediary/2022/june/investing-in-companies-at-the-start-of-the-runway-id0004907/Investing-in-Companies-at-the-Start-of-the-Runway.pdf", "https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/tpd/global/ja/pdfs/%28J%29Investing%20in%20the%20Infrastructure%20Behind%20the%20Digital%20Economy_GL%20Std.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "补当前职位确认、完整估值模型与预测结果；不影响已读方法样本。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B1-TU22", "title": "Investing in Companies at the Start of the Runway", "date": "2022-06", "authors": "Alan Tu", "url": "https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/trp-ecl/global/en/ipc/assets/us-retail-intermediary/2022/june/investing-in-companies-at-the-start-of-the-runway-id0004907/Investing-in-Companies-at-the-Start-of-the-Runway.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08 读取PDF第1–4页。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "从产品进入市场方式、客户扩张和竞争优势寻找长增长跑道，同时要求估值纪律。" }, { "id": "R2B1-TU21", "title": "Investing in the Infrastructure Behind the Digital Economy（日文官方译本）", "date": "2021-03", "authors": "Alan Tu, James Stillwagon, Tony Wang共同署名", "url": "https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/tpd/global/ja/pdfs/%28J%29Investing%20in%20the%20Infrastructure%20Behind%20the%20Digital%20Economy_GL%20Std.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08 读取日文官方PDF第1–4页，保留共同署名；不把团队观点拆为Tu独著。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "团队从软件、云、半导体设备与安全切入数字化基础设施，讨论竞争壁垒、增长基数及估值。" } ] }, { "id": "B22", "name": "Kyle Weaver", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Co-manager Fidelity Advisor Growth Opportunities", "currentRole": "Co-manager, Fidelity Advisor Growth Opportunities Fund and VIP Growth Opportunities Portfolio (official profile observed 2026-10-07)", "firm": "Fidelity Investments", "focus": "Technology and growth investing; candidate focus requires individual substantiation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/funds/managerinformation/1349/2614.html", "title": "Fund Manager Profile: Kyle Weaver", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Directly read Currently Managing table: Kyle Weaver co-manages Fidelity Advisor Growth Opportunities share classes and VIP Growth Opportunities; date listed 07/14/2015 to present. Historic Select Wireless and Enterprise Technology Services roles also listed separately.", "accessLevel": "official source directly opened; relevant identity text read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得完整持仓、交易或模型；未审计预测结果及风险调整业绩", "来源身份与现职分列；历史职务不外推至2026年10月" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "kyle-weaver", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "kyle-weaver", "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "analysis": { "id": "R2B1-B22-01", "profile": "kyle-weaver", "title": "客服省下的时间何时变成现金？", "source_ids": [ "R2B1-WE26", "R2B1-WE26Q2" ], "locator": "Investing in companies harnessing AI to transform their business：2026-10-08 读取署名文章正文。；Fidelity Advisor Growth Opportunities Fund quarterly commentary：2026-10-08 读取PDF第2页投资理念、第5页展望；确认Q2 2026。", "source_paraphrase": "把AI机会扩展到采用者，用客服和数字开户案例连接运营变化；案例陈述不等于已证明因果收益。 / 团队采用3–7年视角，结合现金增长、资本配置及不同增长类型，追踪真实AI使用与供给约束。", "attribution": "来源为具名公开论证或显式团队共著；以下数字、模型和三阶段练习完全为编辑合成，不是本人预测或原问答。", "model": "可兑现节省=节省工时×工资×兑现比例−新增AI成本。", "boundary": "工时并非自动可裁减或可避免的现金支出。", "counterexample": "业务量不变且人员固定时，效率改善可能仅提高服务质量。", "test": "验收后的自动完成率、转人工比例、人员预算和客户满意度。", "question": "合成：每年50000次客服、每次10分钟、工资30/小时。AI覆盖50%请求，其中20%仍需完整人工处理；AI年费40000。全部节省工时可减少现金工资时，净省多少？", "constraint": "只有50%的节省工时能变成现金，其余重新部署；净省多少？", "transfer": "工厂每年节省2000工时、工资40/小时，人员固定且没有避免招聘，自动化运维费10000；仅按给定现金支出，现金变化多少？", "tags": [ "F6", "F16", "F18" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic teaching case", "forecast_outcome": "未进行预测结果/投资业绩审计" }, "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已读两份实质正文并生成方法样本与独立三阶段合成练习；含共同署名材料，个人归属严格受限。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://clearingcustody.fidelity.com/insights/topics/portfolio-manager-insights/investing-in-companies-harnessing-ai-to-transform-their-business", "https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/proxy/content?literatureURL=%2F9910025.PDF" ], "nextEvidence": "补当前职位确认、完整估值模型与预测结果；不影响已读方法样本。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B1-WE26", "title": "Investing in companies harnessing AI to transform their business", "date": "2026-05-04", "authors": "Kyle Weaver", "url": "https://clearingcustody.fidelity.com/insights/topics/portfolio-manager-insights/investing-in-companies-harnessing-ai-to-transform-their-business", "access": "2026-10-08 读取署名文章正文。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "把AI机会扩展到采用者，用客服和数字开户案例连接运营变化；案例陈述不等于已证明因果收益。" }, { "id": "R2B1-WE26Q2", "title": "Fidelity Advisor Growth Opportunities Fund quarterly commentary", "date": "2026-06-30", "authors": "Kyle Weaver and Becky Baker；团队共同材料", "url": "https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/proxy/content?literatureURL=%2F9910025.PDF", "access": "2026-10-08 读取PDF第2页投资理念、第5页展望；确认Q2 2026。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "团队采用3–7年视角，结合现金增长、资本配置及不同增长类型，追踪真实AI使用与供给约束。", "date_basis": "报告期末；精确发布日期未核" } ] }, { "id": "B23", "name": "Sonu Kalra", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Portfolio Manager, Fidelity Select Semiconductors since 2026", "currentRole": "Portfolio Manager, Fidelity Select Semiconductors since 2026", "firm": "Fidelity Investments", "focus": "Technology and growth investing; candidate focus requires individual substantiation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320351/000032035126000312/filing12829.htm", "title": "Fidelity Select Semiconductors summary prospectus supplement", "date": "2026-07-15", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Portfolio Manager, Fidelity Select Semiconductors since 2026", "accessLevel": "primary text opened" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得完整持仓、交易或模型；未审计预测结果及风险调整业绩", "来源身份与现职分列；历史职务不外推至2026年10月" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "sonu-kalra", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "sonu-kalra", "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "analysis": { "id": "R2B1-B23-01", "profile": "sonu-kalra", "title": "未上市资产占比为什么会被动上升？", "source_ids": [ "R2B1-KA26", "R2B1-KA24" ], "locator": "Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund: Portfolio Manager Q&A：2026-10-08 读取PDF第1–4页；滚动PDF实际日期July 31, 2026。；Exploring the AI investment opportunity across public and private markets：2026-10-08 读取公开PDF实质正文；不采用图表中无效4/31/2024脚注作为日期。", "source_paraphrase": "以竞争优势、定价能力和管理层判断增长持久性，关注AI半导体机会并保留宏观及估值风险。 / 团队跨公私市场观察AI价值链，区分流动性、采用速度及长期生产率兑现的不确定性。", "attribution": "来源为具名公开论证或显式团队共著；以下数字、模型和三阶段练习完全为编辑合成，不是本人预测或原问答。", "model": "流动性与账面净值分开；赎回会改变剩余资产构成。", "boundary": "账面未变不等于可按该价格及时出售。", "counterexample": "表面资产分散，在公开市场跌价和赎回时转成私募集中。", "test": "估值时点、赎回条款、现金结算和真实成交折价。", "question": "合成：基金上市资产80、非上市20，均无债。上市资产跌20%，非上市账面不变，再从上市资产支付赎回30。剩余净值与非上市占比多少？", "constraint": "随后将非上市账面10以折价20%售出，现金留在基金；净值和非上市占比多少？", "transfer": "不发生任何赎回或交易，只把原80上市和20非上市组合中的非上市重估下调50%；净值与非上市占比多少？", "tags": [ "F6", "F16", "F18" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic teaching case", "forecast_outcome": "未进行预测结果/投资业绩审计" }, "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已读两份实质正文并生成方法样本与独立三阶段合成练习；含共同署名材料，个人归属严格受限。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/proxy/content?literatureURL=%2FRD_QAA_7822.PDF", "https://clearingcustody.fidelity.com/app/proxy/content?literatureURL=%2F9916259.PDF" ], "nextEvidence": "补当前职位确认、完整估值模型与预测结果；不影响已读方法样本。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B1-KA26", "title": "Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund: Portfolio Manager Q&A", "date": "2026-07-31", "authors": "Sonu Kalra", "url": "https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/proxy/content?literatureURL=%2FRD_QAA_7822.PDF", "access": "2026-10-08 读取PDF第1–4页；滚动PDF实际日期July 31, 2026。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "以竞争优势、定价能力和管理层判断增长持久性，关注AI半导体机会并保留宏观及估值风险。" }, { "id": "R2B1-KA24", "title": "Exploring the AI investment opportunity across public and private markets", "date": "2024-05", "authors": "Sonu Kalra, Asher Anolic, Karin Fronczke, Annie Wang共同署名", "url": "https://clearingcustody.fidelity.com/app/proxy/content?literatureURL=%2F9916259.PDF", "access": "2026-10-08 读取公开PDF实质正文；不采用图表中无效4/31/2024脚注作为日期。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "团队跨公私市场观察AI价值链，区分流动性、采用速度及长期生产率兑现的不确定性。" } ] }, { "id": "B24", "name": "Will Danoff", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Portfolio manager, co-manager of Fidelity Canadian Insights and Global Growth and Value strategies (2026-01-27 announcement); planned retirement from daily management end2026", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Fidelity Investments", "focus": "Technology and growth investing; candidate focus requires individual substantiation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.fidelity.ca/content/dam/fidelity/en/documents/press-release/2026/pr-will-danoff-jan27-en.pdf", "title": "Will Danoff retirement and transition plan", "date": "2026-01-27", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Entire three-page official announcement read: identifies Will Danoff and fund co-management, announces end2026 retirement from day-to-day portfolio management with advisory role afterward. Future announced transition is not a completed retirement as of access2026-10-07.", "accessLevel": "official source directly opened; relevant identity text read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得完整持仓、交易或模型；未审计预测结果及风险调整业绩", "来源身份与现职分列；历史职务不外推至2026年10月" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "will-danoff", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "will-danoff", "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "analysis": { "id": "R2B1-B24-01", "profile": "will-danoff", "title": "单店扩张回报能否覆盖总部负担？", "source_ids": [ "R2B1-DA20", "R2B1-DA26I" ], "locator": "Will Danoff: Succeeding at Scale — The Long View：2026-10-08 读取Morningstar官方Simplecast托管逐字稿中管理层复盘、竞争优势、每股现金增长及持仓重估段落。；Will Danoff: Be Very Careful of Unprofitable Companies — The Long View：2026-10-08 读取Morningstar节目官方Simplecast托管完整逐字稿，尤其unit economics、管理层核验、竞争优势及亏损公司段落；Morningstar主域对应页403，合法公开托管可读。", "source_paraphrase": "强调隔半年至一年追踪管理层承诺；偏好高资本回报、现金增长和客户价值，并用新证据逐步建立信心。 / 从门店单位经济性检验扩张；将管理层许诺与后续执行对照，并要求竞争压力下的盈利记录而非短期收入火箭。", "attribution": "来源为具名公开论证或显式团队共著；以下数字、模型和三阶段练习完全为编辑合成，不是本人预测或原问答。", "model": "增量回报=增量现金收益/投入，另扣总部与维持资本。", "boundary": "单店利润不是股东自由现金流；扩张并不确保估值合理。", "counterexample": "新店增长遮蔽成熟店疲软，总部和维护成本吞噬店面回报。", "test": "核对开店成本、成熟期、同店销售、总部费用与维护资本。", "question": "合成：今天新开10店，每店投入100，从下一年起每店每年产生30店面现金。新增总部成本每年50、维护支出每年40。稳定年净现金及投入回报是多少？", "constraint": "竞争使每店现金降至20，总部和维护不变；若所需回报12%，高于或低于门槛多少个百分点？", "transfer": "数据中心投资500，稳定年客户现金贡献100，网络支持20、维护25；稳定净现金回报率多少，是否超过12%门槛？", "tags": [ "F6", "F16", "F18" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic teaching case", "forecast_outcome": "未进行预测结果/投资业绩审计" }, "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "读取Morningstar 2020和2026两份官方Simplecast原始访谈实质正文；主域403但合法公开原托管可读。另核2026年6月Fidelity问答属Matthew Drukker/Nidhi Gupta团队，不以其问答冒充Danoff本人发言。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://the-long-view.simplecast.com/episodes/will-danoff/transcript", "https://the-long-view.simplecast.com/episodes/will-danoff-be-very-careful-of-unprofitable-companies-1CsuaI3d", "https://www.morningstar.com/funds/will-danoff-succeeding-scale", "https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view/will-danoff-be-very-careful-unprofitable-companies", "https://www.morningstar.com/funds/will-danoff-succeeding-scale", "https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view/will-danoff-be-very-careful-unprofitable-companies" ], "nextEvidence": "补当前职位确认、完整估值模型与预测结果；不影响已读方法样本。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B1-DA20", "title": "Will Danoff: Succeeding at Scale — The Long View", "date": "2020-01-29", "authors": "Will Danoff受访；Morningstar Jeff Ptak and Christine Benz", "url": "https://the-long-view.simplecast.com/episodes/will-danoff/transcript", "access": "2026-10-08 读取Morningstar官方Simplecast托管逐字稿中管理层复盘、竞争优势、每股现金增长及持仓重估段落。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "强调隔半年至一年追踪管理层承诺；偏好高资本回报、现金增长和客户价值，并用新证据逐步建立信心。" }, { "id": "R2B1-DA26I", "title": "Will Danoff: Be Very Careful of Unprofitable Companies — The Long View", "date": "2026-06-23", "authors": "Will Danoff受访；Morningstar Amy Arnott and Christine Benz", "url": "https://the-long-view.simplecast.com/episodes/will-danoff-be-very-careful-of-unprofitable-companies-1CsuaI3d", "access": "2026-10-08 读取Morningstar节目官方Simplecast托管完整逐字稿，尤其unit economics、管理层核验、竞争优势及亏损公司段落；Morningstar主域对应页403，合法公开托管可读。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "从门店单位经济性检验扩张；将管理层许诺与后续执行对照，并要求竞争压力下的盈利记录而非短期收入火箭。" } ] }, { "id": "B25", "name": "Steve Wymer", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Portfolio Manager, Fidelity Growth Company Fund (as of May 31, 2026)", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Fidelity Investments", "focus": "U.S. growth equities; 2026 Q&A directly discusses AI hardware and memory investments", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/SHDOCS/FDGRX/hosts/sh_comm_pmqa.000025.RETAIL_pdf.pdf", "title": "Fidelity Growth Company Fund: Portfolio Manager Q&A", "date": "2026-05-31", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "PDF pp. 2 and 8 identify Steven Wymer, manager of Growth Company Fund since 1997. Live rolling PDF now carries May 31, 2026 header, superseding stale search date.", "accessLevel": "primary full text opened and read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未审计预测准确率或风险调整业绩；两份材料仅支持有限方法样本", "来源时期身份不自动外推至2026年10月现职" ], "aliases": [ "Steven Wymer" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "steve-wymer", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "补读两份不同日期的实质材料，建立本人方法样本及独立三阶段合成练习。2018为未逐字核验的公开镜像，2026为滚动官方文档；日期是报告期间终点。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.readkong.com/page/fidelity-growth-company-fund-key-takeaways-5851471", "https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/SHDOCS/FDGRX/hosts/sh_comm_pmqa.000025.RETAIL_pdf.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "补更多具名材料、现职和预测检验，暂不认证稳定个人方法。" }, "atlasProfileId": "steve-wymer", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G1-B25-S1", "title": "Fidelity Growth Company Fund PM Q&A — May 2018", "date": "2018-05-31", "url": "https://www.readkong.com/page/fidelity-growth-company-fund-key-takeaways-5851471", "authors": "Steve Wymer", "summary": "看三至五年增长机会和商业模式延展性，同时因组合构建调整高确信持仓。", "access": "2026-10-09 Fidelity原问答公开第三方全文镜像，第2–3页正文与经理姓名可见；未取得2018官方存档逐字校验。日期是报告截至日。", "retrieval_level": "公开正文已读；归属与读取边界见access" }, { "id": "O9G1-B25-S2", "title": "Fidelity Growth Company Fund PM Q&A — May 2026", "date": "2026-05-31", "url": "https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/SHDOCS/FDGRX/hosts/sh_comm_pmqa.000025.RETAIL_pdf.pdf", "authors": "Steve Wymer", "summary": "把持续AI采用与企业投资回报及基建约束相连；增长持仓仍需管理集中度。", "access": "2026-10-09 官方滚动PDF第2–4页，实际头部为2026-05-31；截至日不等于发布日；未复制来源未独立核验的业绩或IPO数字。", "retrieval_level": "公开正文已读；归属与读取边界见access" } ], "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "重读Growth Company问答第1–3页，实际2026年5月31日；不同URL的RD_QAA_025仍是同一滚动版本，顾问网址重定向至报告入口。Morningstar 2019访谈返回403。没有凑成两篇。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/SHDOCS/FDGRX/hosts/sh_comm_pmqa.000025.RETAIL_pdf.pdf", "https://consultant.fidelity.com/app/proxy/content?literatureURL=%2FRD_QAA_025.PDF", "https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/proxy/content?literatureURL=%2FRD_QAA_025.PDF", "https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/investing-insights-hear-fund-managers-year" ], "nextEvidence": "另一明确日期的归档问答或可读原始Wymer访谈；不能凭URL不同重复计数。" } ] }, { "id": "B26", "name": "Gavin Baker", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Managing Partner and CIO", "currentRole": "Managing Partner and CIO", "firm": "Atreides Management", "focus": "路线图风险; 假设复盘; AI毛利; 资本回报", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://atreidesmgmt.com/team/gavin-baker/", "title": "Gavin Baker", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Managing Partner and CIO", "accessLevel": "primary text opened" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "Two full substantive primary works read; recurring method not certified", "No audited forecast or investment-performance score" ], "atlasProfileId": "baker-atreides", "analysis": { "id": "B100GB01", "title": "毛利率下降是否必然意味着价值缩水？", "locator": "2020 Intel假设遗漏复盘；2025 business model / AI economics", "source_paraphrase": "Baker复盘未充分检验工艺路线图假设；2025讨论AI增加计算成本、改变传统软件经济。", "model": "编辑合成：毛利=收入×毛利率；营业利润=毛利−营业费用；资本回报需单独计算。", "boundary": "毛利额上升不能证明自由现金流或资本回报上升。", "counterexample": "AI增加收入却需要更多硬件资本，可能稀释资本回报。", "test": "核验推理成本、客户付费、实际利用率及投资资本增量。", "question": "合成软件企业：原收入100、毛利率80%、营业费用50；AI后收入160、毛利率60%、费用60。两期营业利润及变化？", "constraint": "假设税率均20%，投资资本从100升至180，以期末资本算简化税后营业回报，分别多少？", "transfer": "CPU路线图成功概率70%时利润120，失败时利润40；原估计成功90%。两个期望利润及下调幅度？", "tags": [ "F14", "F18", "F23" ], "profile": "baker-atreides", "source_ids": [ "B100-GB1", "B100-GB2" ], "attribution": "来源转述与后续编辑合成计算明确区分；题设数字非本人预测。", "scenario_type": "synthetic teaching case", "forecast_outcome": "未进行预测结果/投资业绩审计" }, "methodCertification": "method-sample; not certified recurring pattern", "priority": true, "profileId": "baker-atreides", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "url": "https://gavin-baker.medium.com/investing-mistakes-chapter-1001-9f0b7dbc6637", "title": "Investing Mistakes, Chapter 1001", "date": "2020-08-14", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "access": "读取全部文章正文；技术判断仅为2020作者主张。" }, { "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/gavin-baker-and-david-george-on-positional", "title": "Gavin Baker and David George on Positional Strategy in AI", "date": "2025-10-30", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "access": "官方主持机构编辑转录正文全部读取；未独立审计演讲中技术及市场数字。" } ] }, { "id": "B27", "name": "Brad Gerstner", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Founder and CEO", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Altimeter", "focus": "现金流; 资本配置; 概率估值; 公私市场", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.linkedin.com/posts/altimeter-capital_altimeter-capital-ceo-brad-gerstner-the-activity-7384302644150046720-ucWd", "title": "Altimeter official company post", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Founder and CEO", "accessLevel": "official company search excerpt" }, { "url": "https://medium.com/@alt.cap/time-to-get-fit-an-open-letter-from-altimeter-to-mark-zuckerberg-and-the-meta-board-of-392d94e80a18", "title": "Time to Get Fit — an Open Letter from Altimeter to Mark Zuckerberg (and the Meta Board of Directors)", "date": "2022-10-24", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "2022公开信署名 Founder and CEO, Altimeter", "accessLevel": "primary full text read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "Two full substantive primary works read; recurring method not certified", "No audited forecast or investment-performance score" ], "atlasProfileId": "gerstner-altimeter", "analysis": { "id": "B100BG01", "title": "削支承诺能变成多少可分配现金？", "locator": "2022 open letter三项建议；2023 uncertainty与cash-flow valuation问答", "source_paraphrase": "Gerstner公开信把支出纪律连接现金流；次年访谈强调技术潜力并不能替代合理价格和证券条款分析。", "model": "编辑合成：增量FCF=税后现金费用节省+资本开支减少−重组现金−其他增量现金需求。", "boundary": "减少资本开支可能牺牲未来收入，不能把节省永久化。", "counterexample": "砍掉高回报产能扩张会提高当期FCF却降低未来价值。", "test": "区分一次性与经常性节省、维持性与成长性投资，核验税盾及客户流失。", "question": "合成企业拟减少年度现金费用10、资本开支5；税率20%，无其他变化。稳定年度FCF改善多少？", "constraint": "首年另付重组现金3，且维持业务需追加资本开支2；题设两项均无额外税效应，首年改善多少？", "transfer": "一项AI证券投入100，60%概率回收180，40%回收40；若合同把高情景回收限制为130，期望回收与未折现回报各多少？", "tags": [ "F11", "F12", "F21" ], "profile": "gerstner-altimeter", "source_ids": [ "B100-BG1", "B100-BG2" ], "attribution": "来源转述与后续编辑合成计算明确区分；题设数字非本人预测。", "scenario_type": "synthetic teaching case", "forecast_outcome": "未进行预测结果/投资业绩审计" }, "methodCertification": "method-sample; not certified recurring pattern", "priority": true, "profileId": "gerstner-altimeter", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "url": "https://medium.com/@alt.cap/time-to-get-fit-an-open-letter-from-altimeter-to-mark-zuckerberg-and-the-meta-board-of-392d94e80a18", "title": "Time to Get Fit — an Open Letter from Altimeter to Mark Zuckerberg (and the Meta Board of Directors)", "date": "2022-10-24", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "access": "自署公开信全文已读；建议与测算为2022主张，并非实际实现结果。" }, { "url": "https://blog.eladgil.com/p/altimeters-brad-gerstner-on-macro", "title": "Altimeter’s Brad Gerstner on Macro, Tech and Startups", "date": "2023-12-05", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "access": "主持人发布访谈转录正文全部读取；日期为发布日期，非确认活动日。" } ] }, { "id": "B28", "name": "Philippe Laffont", "side": "buy", "firm": "Coatue", "roleAtSource": "Founder and Portfolio Manager (2025 ECNY); CTEK Primary Portfolio Manager (2026 prospectus)", "currentRole": "Coatue founder and CTEK Primary Portfolio Manager, verified as of 2026-05-01", "focus": [ "AI产业链", "长期成长", "组合风险" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.coatue.com/ctek/documents/Coatue_-_CTEK_Prospectus__May_1__2026_.pdf", "title": "Coatue Innovative Strategies Fund Prospectus", "date": "2026-05-01", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Primary Portfolio Manager responsibility and founder status, PDF pp.28,59", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "evidenceScope": "One personal substantive interview plus institutional prospectus, not two personal authored materials.", "gaps": [ "还缺第二份个人完整材料验证稳定方法", "私有模型及历史交易回报未审计", "私人资产估值更新可能滞后" ], "research": { "thesis": "长期技术主题 → 跨产业链机会 → 模型更新与风险预算", "assumptions": [ "增长主题须转化为企业价值", "流动性和投资期限约束匹配" ], "counterevidence": [ "长期叙事失效", "估值过高", "私人资产估值滞后掩盖风险" ], "skill": [ "F11", "F14", "F22", "F23" ], "sources": [ { "id": "EXP200-B28-A", "title": "Philippe Laffont at The Economic Club of New York", "date": "2025-06-12", "url": "https://econclubny.globalnorthstar.net/documents/20124/74672/20250612_Laffont_Transcript.pdf/cfd73cf3-b091-ba07-49a7-ddb48fac86a4", "authors": "Philippe Laffont; moderator Glenn Hutchins", "access": "2026-10-07读取主办方完整33页转录中的实质段落pp.9–18；未听音视频。", "retrieval_level": "primary host full transcript; substantive passages read", "summary": "Laffont以少数长期主题扩展产业链机会，同时描述亏损时提高现金的做法。他把GPU需求延伸到能源、设备和基础设施。其历史交易叙述未独立审计。" }, { "id": "EXP200-B28-B", "title": "Coatue Innovative Strategies Fund Prospectus", "date": "2026-05-01", "url": "https://www.coatue.com/ctek/documents/Coatue_-_CTEK_Prospectus__May_1__2026_.pdf", "authors": "Coatue / Fund institutional disclosure; not a personally authored Laffont essay", "access": "2026-10-07读取完整105页文件中的Coatue Overview（PDF p.28）及Portfolio Management（PDF p.59）等相关条文；并非全文逐页审计。", "retrieval_level": "primary full prospectus; substantive research/risk/PM sections read", "summary": "机构披露把选股、头寸和现金管理结合，Mosaic支持模型和持续监测；Laffont负责基金组合和策略，研究人员仍作投资决策。该文件支持机构流程，不证明每条都是个人独创。" } ] }, "priority": true, "profileId": "philippe-laffont", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "EXP200-B28-A", "title": "Philippe Laffont at The Economic Club of New York", "url": "https://econclubny.globalnorthstar.net/documents/20124/74672/20250612_Laffont_Transcript.pdf/cfd73cf3-b091-ba07-49a7-ddb48fac86a4", "date": "2025-06-12", "access": "2026-10-07读取主办方完整33页转录中的实质段落pp.9–18；未听音视频。" }, { "id": "EXP200-B28-B", "title": "Coatue Innovative Strategies Fund Prospectus", "url": "https://www.coatue.com/ctek/documents/Coatue_-_CTEK_Prospectus__May_1__2026_.pdf", "date": "2026-05-01", "access": "2026-10-07读取完整105页文件中的Coatue Overview（PDF p.28）及Portfolio Management（PDF p.59）等相关条文；并非全文逐页审计。" } ] }, { "id": "B29", "name": "Thomas Laffont", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Co-Founder and CIO of Privates", "currentRole": "Co-Founder and CIO of Privates", "firm": "Coatue", "focus": "Technology and growth investing; candidate focus requires individual substantiation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.coatue.com/ctek/why-ctek", "title": "Why CTEK", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Co-Founder and CIO of Privates", "accessLevel": "primary text opened" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得完整持仓、交易或模型；未审计预测结果及风险调整业绩", "来源身份与现职分列；历史职务不外推至2026年10月" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "thomas-laffont", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "thomas-laffont", "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "analysis": { "id": "R2B1-B29-01", "profile": "thomas-laffont", "title": "公开代码活动能证明收入增长吗？", "source_ids": [ "R2B1-LA26D", "R2B1-LA26A" ], "locator": "Our Partnership with Databricks：2026-10-08 读取官网完整实质正文及利益披露。；Our Partnership with Anthropic: Enterprise Intelligence has Liftoff：2026-10-08 读取官网完整实质正文及利益披露；未独立验证营收与工程效率宣传数字。", "source_paraphrase": "团队以分析、交易和代理应用扩张解释增长，强调数据治理与研发周期；Coatue持有经济利益。 / 团队用代码活动和工作流扩展支持企业采用论点；从开发能力延伸到平台价值，存在被投企业利益冲突。", "attribution": "来源为具名公开论证或显式团队共著；以下数字、模型和三阶段练习完全为编辑合成，不是本人预测或原问答。", "model": "使用量代理信号须除以样本覆盖并校验商业转换。", "boundary": "两文是Coatue投资论证，有被投企业利益；不认证Thomas独立方法。", "counterexample": "仓库增长来自采样扩张、免费使用或自动生成，并不带来付费。", "test": "同仓库队列、真实活跃开发者、付费转换和净收入留存。", "question": "合成：平台可见AI提交从1000升到2400，但采样仓库从100升到200。每仓库提交怎样变，能否据此称收入增140%？", "constraint": "若同口径付费比例从50%降到30%，每次付费提交单价不变；用全部提交×付费比例作收入代理，变化多少？", "transfer": "数据平台客户数从100到150、每客户收入从20到16；收入怎样变化？", "tags": [ "F6", "F16", "F18" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic teaching case", "forecast_outcome": "未进行预测结果/投资业绩审计" }, "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已读两份实质正文并生成方法样本与独立三阶段合成练习；保留公开材料和历史身份边界。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.coatue.com/blog/perspective/our-partnership-with-databricks", "https://www.coatue.com/blog/press/our-partnership-with-anthropic-enterprise-intelligence-has-liftoff" ], "nextEvidence": "补当前职位确认、完整估值模型与预测结果；不影响已读方法样本。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B1-LA26D", "title": "Our Partnership with Databricks", "date": "2026-07-20", "authors": "Thomas Laffont, Lucas Swisher, Jade Lai, Abhi Srinivas, Philena Sun", "url": "https://www.coatue.com/blog/perspective/our-partnership-with-databricks", "access": "2026-10-08 读取官网完整实质正文及利益披露。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "团队以分析、交易和代理应用扩张解释增长，强调数据治理与研发周期；Coatue持有经济利益。" }, { "id": "R2B1-LA26A", "title": "Our Partnership with Anthropic: Enterprise Intelligence has Liftoff", "date": "2026-02-12", "authors": "Thomas Laffont, Lucas Swisher, Jade Lai, Abhi Srinivas", "url": "https://www.coatue.com/blog/press/our-partnership-with-anthropic-enterprise-intelligence-has-liftoff", "access": "2026-10-08 读取官网完整实质正文及利益披露；未独立验证营收与工程效率宣传数字。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "团队用代码活动和工作流扩展支持企业采用论点；从开发能力延伸到平台价值，存在被投企业利益冲突。" } ] }, { "id": "B30", "name": "Alex Sacerdote", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Founder, CEO & Portfolio Manager, Whale Rock Capital Management (2026 conference biography)", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Whale Rock Capital", "focus": "Global equities focused on technology, media and telecommunications", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://sohnmontreal.org/speaker/alex-sacerdote/", "title": "Alex Sacerdote — Sohn Montreal", "date": "2026-06-04", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Organizer biography names founder, CEO and portfolio manager; states Whale Rock founded in 2006 and TMT focus. Date is displayed conference date, not biography publication date.", "accessLevel": "primary full text opened and read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未审计预测准确率或风险调整业绩；两份材料仅支持有限方法样本", "来源时期身份不自动外推至2026年10月现职" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "alex-sacerdote", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "补读两份不同日期的实质材料，建立本人方法样本及独立三阶段合成练习。2026第三方机器稿未核音频；只取清楚的框架段，不将转录中的具体估值、公司历史或投资业绩当作已核事实。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/imce-uploads/Graham%20%26%20Doddsville_Issue%2025_0.pdf", "https://podscripts.co/podcasts/invest-like-the-best-with-patrick-oshaughnessy/alex-sacerdote-how-to-invest-through-technology-cycles-invest-like-the-best-ep477" ], "nextEvidence": "补更多具名材料、现职和预测检验，暂不认证稳定个人方法。" }, "atlasProfileId": "alex-sacerdote", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G1-B30-S1", "title": "Graham & Doddsville Issue XXV — Alex Sacerdote", "date": "2015", "url": "https://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/imce-uploads/Graham%20%26%20Doddsville_Issue%2025_0.pdf", "authors": "Alex Sacerdote", "summary": "把采用拐点与竞争优势、未被价格反映的盈利能力联合考察；市场增长不保证每家厂商获利。", "access": "2026-10-09 Columbia原始刊物，2015年秋刊，第6–12页访谈；重点读第7–9页S曲线和退出案例。", "retrieval_level": "公开正文已读；归属与读取边界见access" }, { "id": "O9G1-B30-S2", "title": "Invest Like the Best EP477 — Investing on the S-Curve", "date": "2026-06-09", "url": "https://podscripts.co/podcasts/invest-like-the-best-with-patrick-oshaughnessy/alex-sacerdote-how-to-invest-through-technology-cycles-invest-like-the-best-ep477", "authors": "Alex Sacerdote", "summary": "区分采用速度与市场上限，并在渗透路径偏离时修正假设；企业整合难度也影响采用速度。", "access": "2026-10-09 公开第三方机器逐字稿，实读19:23–29:40；官方Colossus节目页核对身份、节目号和日期，官方完整稿需登录，未访问。未核音频；明显转录错误不作为事实。", "retrieval_level": "公开正文已读；归属与读取边界见access" } ], "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "下载并读取Columbia Graham & Doddsville 2015第25期Sacerdote访谈有关S曲线及竞争优势的段落。Colossus 2026年6月9日原节目页仅公开简介/章节目录，完整逐字稿要求登录；不将目录当正文。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/imce-uploads/Graham%20%26%20Doddsville_Issue%2025_0.pdf", "https://colossus.com/episode/investing-on-the-s-curve/" ], "nextEvidence": "第二份Sacerdote实质公开原始访谈或具名信；持仓申报与会议传记不替代。" } ] }, { "id": "B31", "name": "Chase Coleman", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Named as a person controlling Tiger Global Management, LLC in Peloton draft S-1 dated May 23, 2019", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Tiger Global", "focus": "Buy-side identity verified historically; individual investment specialty not established by this ownership footnote", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000095012319005677/filename1.htm", "title": "Peloton Interactive draft Form S-1 (publicly available SEC archive)", "date": "2019-05-23", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Related-party ownership footnote 2 and beneficial-ownership footnote 14 state Tiger Global Management is controlled by Chase Coleman and Scott Shleifer. This is a control relationship, not an accounting Controller job title.", "accessLevel": "primary full text opened and read" } ], "status": "identity-verified", "gaps": [ "需可合法读取的本人完整公开访谈/签名信两份；主持人问题与嘉宾观点分列，不将团队信单独归个人。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": null, "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "已核2025 Robin Hood面板入口，但所读Alpha-File为AI生成摘要且将嘉宾Homan误写Sloan，不能归成本人完整论证。2009Q1信件入口明确声明原文因版权/保密要求已撤除；2026周年信页只提供有限转述且正文登录受限。未取得两份可核的Coleman原始方法正文。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://alpha-file.com/content/4399", "https://beta.robinhood.org/news/13th-annual-investors-conference-2025/", "https://www.marketfolly.com/2009_05_03_archive.html", "https://hedgefundalpha.com/investor-letters/tiger-global-25th-anniversary/" ], "nextEvidence": "需可合法读取的本人完整公开访谈/签名信两份；主持人问题与嘉宾观点分列，不将团队信单独归个人。" }, "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "检索个人访谈并打开Tiger Global官方入口，未取得两份Coleman个人投资论证；既有2019 SEC控制关系脚注仅证明历史关联。有关私下LP通话的媒体转述未当原始采访读。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.tigerglobal.com/", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000095012319005677/filename1.htm" ], "nextEvidence": "公开签名投资信、完整公开讲话或采访两份；另需现职证据，不能以持仓/控制关系反推方法。" } ] }, { "id": "B32", "name": "Scott Shleifer", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Partner, Tiger Global Management（2022-10-26 FII官方议程）", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Tiger Global", "focus": "Buy-side identity verified historically; individual investment specialty not established by this ownership footnote", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000095012319005677/filename1.htm", "title": "Peloton Interactive draft Form S-1 (publicly available SEC archive)", "date": "2019-05-23", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Related-party ownership footnote 2 and beneficial-ownership footnote 14 state Tiger Global Management is controlled by Chase Coleman and Scott Shleifer. This is a control relationship, not an accounting Controller job title.", "accessLevel": "primary full text opened and read" }, { "url": "https://fii-institute.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/FII6-Program-2022.10.26.1356KSA.docx-1.pdf", "title": "FII6 official program", "date": "2022-10-26", "accessed": "2026-10-09", "whatVerified": "PDF第34页列Scott Shleifer为Tiger Global Partner；不是当前顾问职务确认", "accessLevel": "primary program full text read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "第二来源仅为原报道所载本人论证选段，未取得完整通话/音频；第一来源转录未核音频", "当前职务及顾问转型未由日期明确原始材料确认；不认证稳定个人哲学或基金业绩" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "scott-shleifer", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "补齐2022 FII公开完整转录与2023原报道所载本人实质论证选段，形成窄方法样本；第二份不是完整通话，明确保留范围。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://aletteraday.substack.com/p/letter-307-scott-shleifer-and-hani", "https://fii-institute.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/FII6-Program-2022.10.26.1356KSA.docx-1.pdf", "https://techcrunch.com/2023/02/01/tiger-global-india-returns-way-below-average-but-firm-remains-bullish-says-scott-shleifer/" ], "nextEvidence": "补2023完整通话/录音和当前职务原始确认；未做业绩认证。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G2-SH22", "title": "Where VC Flows From Here — Scott Shleifer and Hani Enaya", "date": "2022-10-26", "authors": "Scott Shleifer，主持Hani Enaya；Kevin Gee转录", "url": "https://aletteraday.substack.com/p/letter-307-scott-shleifer-and-hani", "original_url": "https://fii-institute.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/FII6-Program-2022.10.26.1356KSA.docx-1.pdf", "mirror_publication_date": "2025-11-25", "date_basis": "FII官方议程Day2，2022-10-26；镜像发表于2025-11-25", "summary": "本人讨论低渗透率市场的增长空间、高增量利润及融资依赖；属于单次方法材料，不能由此认证稳定策略或把多年后利润用于上市时点估值。", "access": "2026-10-09 已读取完整公开转录的渗透率、成本及融资段；官方议程第34页核对嘉宾、主持及日期。", "retrieval_level": "第三方公开完整转录；作者自述转录错误自负，未核原音频" }, { "id": "O9G2-SH23", "title": "Tiger Global India investor-call remarks — original reporting selected passages", "date": "2023-02-01", "event_date": "2023-01-31", "date_basis": "原刊2023-02-01；文中前日Tuesday通话为2023-01-31", "authors": "Scott Shleifer（具名引语）；Manish Singh（原报道记者）", "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2023/02/01/tiger-global-india-returns-way-below-average-but-firm-remains-bullish-says-scott-shleifer/", "summary": "增长需转为利润。", "access": "2026-10-09 原刊正文已读，仅取本人直接引语段；未取得完整通话或录音，媒体叙述不作为本人论证。", "retrieval_level": "原报道所载本人实质论证选段；非完整采访或官方逐字稿", "scope": "只支持增长与利润验证这一窄方法维度；未认证所引基金业绩或投资金额。" } ], "atlasProfileId": "scott-shleifer", "methodCertification": "limited method-sample; one full transcript and one original-report attributed passage; recurring pattern not certified", "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "打开Wharton Scott Shleifer人物页，属于人物介绍入口；未取得两份具名方法正文。既有SEC为2019控制关系，未把历史控制关系外推成现任职务或把顾问转型二手报道当确认。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://magazine.wharton.upenn.edu/scott-shleifer/", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000095012319005677/filename1.htm" ], "nextEvidence": "当前角色的日期明确原始证据及两份本人实质研究/访谈。" } ] }, { "id": "B33", "name": "Lee Ainslie", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Founder and Managing Partner, Maverick Capital (2021 interview)", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Maverick Capital", "focus": "Fundamental equity stock selection; interview discusses customer, supplier and competitor diligence", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://journal.businesstoday.org/bt-online/2021/a-conversation-with-lee-ainslie-founder-and-managing-partner-of-maverick-capital", "title": "A Conversation with Lee Ainslie, Founder and Managing Partner of Maverick Capital", "date": "2021-05-16", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Original interview introduces Lee S. Ainslie III as founder and managing partner, and records his own account of founding Maverick in 1993.", "accessLevel": "original interviewer transcript full text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得完整持仓、交易或模型；未审计预测结果及风险调整业绩", "来源身份与现职分列；历史职务不外推至2026年10月" ], "aliases": [ "Lee S. Ainslie III" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "lee-ainslie", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "lee-ainslie", "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "analysis": { "id": "R2B1-B33-01", "profile": "lee-ainslie", "title": "渠道总量增长是否只是样本变大？", "source_ids": [ "R2B1-AI06", "R2B1-AI21" ], "locator": "Inside a hedge fund: An interview with the managing partner of Maverick Capital：2026-10-08 读取原发布者完整访谈正文。；A Conversation with Lee Ainslie, Founder and Managing Partner of Maverick Capital：2026-10-08 读取原采访全文。", "source_paraphrase": "以管理层、持续增长和资本回报筛选，以可持续自由现金流/企业价值衡量价格，持仓按未来回报重审。 / 说明基本面与因素风险互补；用统计化替代数据替代过度加权的零散观察，并保留资本保护目标。", "attribution": "来源为具名公开论证或显式团队共著；以下数字、模型和三阶段练习完全为编辑合成，不是本人预测或原问答。", "model": "总量=覆盖单位数×单位产出；投资收益另需估值与风险。", "boundary": "渠道样本不代表全部公司，收入信号不能直接当超额回报。", "counterexample": "网站订单号或新增门店样本会制造虚假加速。", "test": "稳定队列、去重、地域与店龄结构，以及价格/销量拆分。", "question": "合成：渠道样本销售100增至120，覆盖门店1000增至1500；平均店销售增速是多少？", "constraint": "第二期1500家中新增500家贡献销售40；原1000家贡献80。原店同店增速多少？", "transfer": "服务器采购监测量从200到300，但覆盖客户40到75；每客户采购量变多少，能否直接推出行业增长50%？", "tags": [ "F6", "F16", "F18" ], "scenario_type": "synthetic teaching case", "forecast_outcome": "未进行预测结果/投资业绩审计" }, "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已读两份实质正文并生成方法样本与独立三阶段合成练习；保留公开材料和历史身份边界。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/inside-a-hedge-fund-an-interview-with-the-managing-partner-of-maverick-capital", "https://journal.businesstoday.org/bt-online/2021/a-conversation-with-lee-ainslie-founder-and-managing-partner-of-maverick-capital" ], "nextEvidence": "补当前职位确认、完整估值模型与预测结果；不影响已读方法样本。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B1-AI06", "title": "Inside a hedge fund: An interview with the managing partner of Maverick Capital", "date": "2006-04-01", "authors": "Lee Ainslie受访；Richard Dobbs and Tim Koller采访", "url": "https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/inside-a-hedge-fund-an-interview-with-the-managing-partner-of-maverick-capital", "access": "2026-10-08 读取原发布者完整访谈正文。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "以管理层、持续增长和资本回报筛选，以可持续自由现金流/企业价值衡量价格，持仓按未来回报重审。" }, { "id": "R2B1-AI21", "title": "A Conversation with Lee Ainslie, Founder and Managing Partner of Maverick Capital", "date": "2021-05-16", "authors": "Lee Ainslie受访；Business Today原采访", "url": "https://journal.businesstoday.org/bt-online/2021/a-conversation-with-lee-ainslie-founder-and-managing-partner-of-maverick-capital", "access": "2026-10-08 读取原采访全文。", "retrieval_level": "原发布者公开正文；合著/转载限制见作者与读取说明", "summary": "说明基本面与因素风险互补；用统计化替代数据替代过度加权的零散观察，并保留资本保护目标。" } ] }, { "id": "B34", "name": "Stephen Mandel", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Founder of Lone Pine Capital (1997); website displays Executive Chairman on a pro-forma January 2027 team roster", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Lone Pine Capital", "focus": "Fundamental equity investing; historical consumer-equity analyst background", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.lonepinecapital.com/team/steve-mandel/", "title": "Steve Mandel — Lone Pine Capital", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Official bio identifies founder in 1997 and historical Tiger Management consumer analyst and portfolio manager roles.", "accessLevel": "primary full text opened and read" }, { "url": "https://www.lonepinecapital.com/team/", "title": "Team — Lone Pine Capital", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Team page explicitly says titles are pro-forma January 1, 2027. Executive Chairman is not treated as independently verified current title on October 7, 2026.", "accessLevel": "primary full text opened and read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份公开材料仅支持有限方法样本，未认证完整或稳定个人投资哲学", "镜像转录未逐字比对原音频/官方原件；未审计预测结果和投资业绩" ], "aliases": [ "Steve Mandel" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "stephen-mandel", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "补齐两份独立实质材料正文，形成有归因边界的方法档案及三阶段合成练习；公开镜像不冒充官方校订。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://podscripts.co/podcasts/invest-like-the-best-with-patrick-oshaughnessy/steve-mandel-investing-behind-change-invest-like-the-best-ep-235", "https://aletteraday.substack.com/p/letter-298-steve-mandel-paul-buser", "https://colossus.com/episode/mandel-investing-behind-change/", "https://colossus.com/episode/lessons-from-steve-mandel/" ], "nextEvidence": "继续补原音频/官方原件对照、完整模型与预测结果；来源期身份不自动等于当前职务。" }, "atlasProfileId": "stephen-mandel", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G2-M21", "title": "Steve Mandel — Investing Behind Change", "date": "2021-07-20", "authors": "Steve Mandel，访谈主持 Patrick O’Shaughnessy", "url": "https://podscripts.co/podcasts/invest-like-the-best-with-patrick-oshaughnessy/steve-mandel-investing-behind-change-invest-like-the-best-ep-235", "summary": "从可复制的单位经济与管理质量理解业务安全边际；由具体公司发现多年变迁，而非从主题标签倒推股票。", "access": "2026-10-09 公开完整转录已读00:09–00:22投资方法段；节目原页核日期与人物；自动转录存在姓名错字。", "retrieval_level": "公开原始材料转录/信件镜像；非官方校订，未核对原音频或官方文件字节", "original_url": "https://colossus.com/episode/mandel-investing-behind-change/" }, { "id": "O9G2-M25", "title": "Lessons from Steve Mandel", "date": "2025-09-15", "authors": "Steve Mandel；主持Rick Buhrman、Paul Buser；Kevin Gee转录", "url": "https://aletteraday.substack.com/p/letter-298-steve-mandel-paul-buser", "summary": "以自由现金流收益率、再投资回报与融资依赖共同看估值；高回报扩张导致的低FCF不能直接视为劣质，AI赢家也可能因买价过高给投资者低回报。", "access": "2026-10-09 公开完整转录已读Valuation Frameworks and Non-Linear Thinking等章节；镜像发布日期2025-10-21，节目日期由Colossus原页核为2025-09-15。", "retrieval_level": "公开原始材料转录/信件镜像；非官方校订，未核对原音频或官方文件字节", "original_url": "https://colossus.com/episode/lessons-from-steve-mandel/", "mirror_publication_date": "2025-10-21" } ], "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "打开2021 Investing Behind Change及2025 Lessons from Steve Mandel两份Colossus原节目页，公开部分仅简介和章节；完整稿受登录限制。保留既有官网2027年1月生效前瞻职位的边界，不当2026现职。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://colossus.com/episode/mandel-investing-behind-change/", "https://colossus.com/episode/lessons-from-steve-mandel/", "https://www.lonepinecapital.com/team/" ], "nextEvidence": "两份合法可读完整Mandel访谈/具名信；另需非前瞻名单的当前职务。" } ] }, { "id": "B35", "name": "Andreas Halvorsen", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer", "currentRole": "Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Viking Global (undated official team page accessed 2026-10-07)", "firm": "Viking Global", "focus": "Firm-wide investment oversight, capital allocation and risk management; historical Financials portfolio management", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://vikingglobal.com/our-team/", "title": "Our Team — Viking Global", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Official Andreas Halvorsen bio identifies co-founder and CEO, investment oversight and prior CIO/Financials portfolio-manager roles; co-founded in 1999.", "accessLevel": "primary full text opened and read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份公开材料仅支持有限方法样本，未认证完整或稳定个人投资哲学", "镜像转录未逐字比对原音频/官方原件；未审计预测结果和投资业绩" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "andreas-halvorsen", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "补齐两份独立实质材料正文，形成有归因边界的方法档案及三阶段合成练习；公开镜像不冒充官方校订。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://pdfcoffee.com/viking-onshore-4q-2008-letter-pdf-free.html", "https://www.gurufocus.com/news/101623/andreas-halvorsen-2q10-investor-letter?mobile=true" ], "nextEvidence": "继续补原音频/官方原件对照、完整模型与预测结果；来源期身份不自动等于当前职务。" }, "atlasProfileId": "andreas-halvorsen", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G2-H09", "title": "Viking 4Q 2008 investor letter", "date": "2009-01-09", "authors": "O. Andreas Halvorsen（信件主文）；附件另有Dave Ott邮件", "url": "https://pdfcoffee.com/viking-onshore-4q-2008-letter-pdf-free.html", "summary": "把多空选股价差、净敞口与总敞口分开；降低总杠杆可能牺牲账面收益，却保留融资安全与危机中继续研究交易的能力。", "access": "2026-10-09 公开信件转录正文已读页1–3，抬头明确From: O. Andreas Halvorsen、January 9, 2009；附件Dave Ott邮件不是Halvorsen个人原话；未认证上传者身份或官方字节一致。", "retrieval_level": "公开原始材料转录/信件镜像；非官方校订，未核对原音频或官方文件字节", "date_basis": "信件抬头日期，报告期为2008Q4" }, { "id": "O9G2-H10", "title": "Andreas Halvorsen 2Q10 Investor Letter", "date": "2010-07-30", "authors": "O. Andreas Halvorsen（转载信件主文）", "url": "https://www.gurufocus.com/news/101623/andreas-halvorsen-2q10-investor-letter?mobile=true", "summary": "检视高确信度持仓、分散度和多空激励；多头与空头的流动性及损失不对称，不能按同样集中规则处理。", "access": "2026-10-09 公开长篇信件主文转载已读开头From: O. Andreas Halvorsen及集中度、做空激励、总敞口段；原信无可确认具体写信日，date用镜像公布日，报告期2010Q2；未取得原附件及官方原件字节核验。", "retrieval_level": "公开原始材料转录/信件镜像；非官方校订，未核对原音频或官方文件字节", "date_basis": "GuruFocus镜像发布时间2010-07-30；原信确切写作日未知" } ], "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "重读Viking官方团队页可核CEO、投资监督、资本配置及风险管理职责，非实质方法材料。Stanford原活动文章检索有投资引语但直接打开失败；未用搜索摘要拼成两份方法正文。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://vikingglobal.com/our-team/", "https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/experience/news-history/invested-purpose-insights-stanford-gsb-investors" ], "nextEvidence": "可读取Stanford完整问答和另一份本人具名实质材料；团队传记不计方法来源。" } ] }, { "id": "B36", "name": "Dan Sundheim", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Founder and CIO", "currentRole": null, "firm": "D1 Capital Partners", "focus": "Global public/private growth", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://company.instacart.ca/about-us/daniel-sundheim", "title": "Instacart director biography", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "Founder and CIO" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份公开材料仅支持有限方法样本，未认证完整或稳定个人投资哲学", "镜像转录未逐字比对原音频/官方原件；未审计预测结果和投资业绩" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "dan-sundheim", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "补齐两份独立实质材料正文，形成有归因边界的方法档案及三阶段合成练习；公开镜像不冒充官方校订。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://cheekypint.transistor.fm/15/transcript", "https://podscripts.co/podcasts/invest-like-the-best-with-patrick-oshaughnessy/dan-sundheim-the-art-of-public-and-private-market-investing-invest-like-the-best-ep460", "https://colossus.com/episode/the-art-of-public-private-market-investing/" ], "nextEvidence": "继续补原音频/官方原件对照、完整模型与预测结果；来源期身份不自动等于当前职务。" }, "atlasProfileId": "dan-sundheim", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G2-D25", "title": "Dan Sundheim of D1 Capital on the art of public market investing", "date": "2025-10-22", "authors": "Dan Sundheim；Cheeky Pint访谈", "url": "https://cheekypint.transistor.fm/15/transcript", "summary": "三年预期回报依赖退出倍数；股价提前兑现会降低未来IRR，但过早卖出长期优秀企业同样有机会成本。", "access": "2026-10-09 节目官方完整逐字稿，已读00:07:02–00:11:44的IRR、退出估值及Netflix投资段。", "retrieval_level": "原节目公开完整逐字稿正文" }, { "id": "O9G2-D26", "title": "Dan Sundheim — The Art of Public and Private Market Investing", "date": "2026-02-24", "authors": "Dan Sundheim；主持Patrick O’Shaughnessy", "url": "https://podscripts.co/podcasts/invest-like-the-best-with-patrick-oshaughnessy/dan-sundheim-the-art-of-public-and-private-market-investing-invest-like-the-best-ep460", "summary": "把LLM训练视为前置固定投资，并检验采用速度、后续资本供给与回报；Netflix式成本摊薄与Spotify式个性化黏性是类比，模型商品化及延迟采用可能破坏回报。", "access": "2026-10-09 公开完整转录已读约00:12–00:20资本回报、Netflix/Spotify类比与业务聚焦段；动态广告造成时间戳与官方show notes略有差别，未逐秒核音频。", "retrieval_level": "公开原始材料转录/信件镜像；非官方校订，未核对原音频或官方文件字节", "original_url": "https://colossus.com/episode/the-art-of-public-private-market-investing/" } ], "methodCertification": "method-sample only; recurring pattern not certified", "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "读取2025年10月22日Cheeky Pint完整官方逐字稿的投资方法段落，涉及三年IRR、退出倍数、Netflix规模与Costco卖出复盘。2026年2月24日Colossus原页仅简介/目录，完整稿需登录；目前只有一份充分方法正文。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://cheekypint.transistor.fm/15/transcript", "https://colossus.com/episode/the-art-of-public-private-market-investing/" ], "nextEvidence": "第二份Dan Sundheim可读原始访谈/投资信；不把同一节目重托管或媒体摘录算独立材料。" } ] }, { "id": "B37", "name": "Christopher Lyle", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Director and President of SCGE GenPar (historical)", "currentRole": null, "firm": "SCGE", "focus": "Technology growth", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1537530/000118143112041381/xslF345X02/rrd351248.xml", "title": "SEC Form 3", "date": "2012-08", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "Director and President of SCGE GenPar (historical)" }, { "url": "https://investors.paloaltonetworks.com/static-files/a0989215-0ba7-439f-988f-192b4204fa03", "title": "Palo Alto Networks IR — SEC Form3", "date": "2012-07-19", "accessed": "2026-10-09", "whatVerified": "说明脚注1确认SCGE GenPar Director and President；本人2012-07-19签名，未证明现职", "accessLevel": "issuer-hosted primary filing full text read" } ], "status": "identity-verified", "gaps": [ "两份SCGE/Lyle具名方法正文及当前职务确认；持仓和受益所有权只证明关联。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": null, "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "新增读取发行人IR托管2012-07-19 Form3主文与本人签字，以及2012-09-07 FormD。前者确认历史Director/President与投票投资权，但两文件均无投资论证。扩展检索Christopher/Chris Lyle及SCGE访谈/投资信仍只定位持仓聚合，未将同名航空专家或别家基金投资信移植到本人。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://investors.paloaltonetworks.com/static-files/a0989215-0ba7-439f-988f-192b4204fa03", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1509636/000150963612000001/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml" ], "nextEvidence": "两份SCGE/Lyle具名方法正文及当前职务确认；持仓和受益所有权只证明关联。" }, "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "精确姓名+SCGE letter/interview搜索仅定位持仓二手聚合；重新打开SEC Form 3，仅支持历史身份，不含方法。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1537530/000118143112041381/xslF345X02/rrd351248.xml" ], "nextEvidence": "需SCGE署名投资信或完整公开访谈两份，13F不能推导动机。" } ] }, { "id": "B38", "name": "Dan Niles", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Founder and Portfolio Manager", "currentRole": "Founder and Portfolio Manager, Niles Investment Management（2026-10-09官网核验）", "firm": "Niles Investment Management", "focus": "Technology long/short and risk", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.nilesinvestmentmanagement.com/danniles", "title": "Dan Niles", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "Founder and Portfolio Manager" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两次不同情景的公开发言；政策判断是当时观点，不是已证因果。", "未完成完整方法及结果审计" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "dan-niles", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "已补齐两项独立实质材料，形成有限方法档案及合成练习：盈利改善如何与估值和仓位上限联动？。两次不同情景的公开发言；政策判断是当时观点，不是已证因果。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/fmjc/date/2024-10-23/segment/01", "https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/ebo/date/2025-04-07/segment/01", "https://www.nilesinvestmentmanagement.com/" ], "nextEvidence": "继续检验反例、决策执行与长期结果；两篇材料不等于完整方法认证。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G3-N1", "title": "CNN First Move: Dan Niles on Tesla earnings and risk", "url": "https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/fmjc/date/2024-10-23/segment/01", "date": "2024-10-23", "access": "2026-10-09：CNN官方逐字稿本人段落已读；rush transcript，未核音频。", "date_basis": "节目播出日期" }, { "id": "O9G3-N2", "title": "CNN Outfront: Dan Niles on trade policy", "url": "https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/ebo/date/2025-04-07/segment/01", "date": "2025-04-07", "access": "2026-10-09：CNN官方逐字稿本人段落已读；不把Richard Quest或Dan Ives段归给Niles。", "date_basis": "节目播出日期" } ], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "检索2025 outlook与官方站点；已取官网Dan Niles页，RiskReversal节目页仅摘要/音视频入口，未获得两份已核对逐字稿。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.nilesinvestmentmanagement.com/danniles", "https://riskreversal.substack.com/p/cash-is-king-dan-niles-2025-investing-797" ], "nextEvidence": "读取两个完整署名策略文本或访谈逐字稿；不可把节目摘要升级。" } ] }, { "id": "B39", "name": "Paul W. T. Lee", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": null, "currentRole": null, "firm": null, "focus": "Technology (proposed)", "identitySources": [], "status": "candidate", "gaps": [ "精确姓名缺可复核机构身份；不能同名替换" ], "priority": false, "profileId": null, "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "再次以精确全名及投资语境检索，未取得Paul W. T. Lee可消歧的机构身份；返回Redington治理人员、Paragon财富经理等不同候选，未建立等同关系，维持未确认。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.ecgi.global/network/our-members/paul-lee", "https://www.connectgroup.global/news/paul-lee-joins-the-speaker-line-up-at-the-world-family-office-forum-asia" ], "nextEvidence": "需要原提名来源或机构、地区线索；在消歧前不能归属论文／观点。" }, "methodSources": [], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "精确姓名Paul W. T. Lee检索未找到可消歧的一手身份材料；不等同Redington治理Paul Lee或Paragon财富顾问。", "checkedUrls": [], "nextEvidence": "需机构、地区或原提名链接；保留candidate。" } ] }, { "id": "B40", "name": "Eric Jackson", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Founder/President and Portfolio Manager", "currentRole": null, "firm": "EMJ Capital", "focus": "Technology and media", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://emjcapital.ltd/about-eric-jackson/", "title": "About Eric Jackson", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "Founder/President and Portfolio Manager" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开持仓倡议与预录问题；管理层服务收入回答不归给Jackson；没有审核其百倍收益说法。", "未完成完整方法及结果审计" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "eric-jackson", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "已补齐两项独立实质材料，形成有限方法档案及合成练习：困境平台的价值能否熬过现金期限？。公开持仓倡议与预录问题；管理层服务收入回答不归给Jackson；没有审核其百倍收益说法。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.thenew.money/article/eric-jackson-overlooked-opportunities-and-hunting-the-next-100x", "https://au.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-opendoor-q3-2025-reveals-challenges-93CH-4110021" ], "nextEvidence": "继续检验反例、决策执行与长期结果；两篇材料不等于完整方法认证。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G3-J1", "title": "The Eric Jackson Interview: Overlooked Opportunities And Hunting The Next 100X", "url": "https://www.thenew.money/article/eric-jackson-overlooked-opportunities-and-hunting-the-next-100x", "date": "2026-01-06", "access": "2026-10-09：原采访发布方书面Q&A正文已读；本人持仓倡议，未审计收益和目标。", "date_basis": "页面显示发表日期" }, { "id": "O9G3-J2", "title": "Opendoor Q3 2025 earnings call: Eric Jackson video question", "url": "https://au.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-opendoor-q3-2025-reveals-challenges-93CH-4110021", "date": "2025-11-07", "access": "2026-10-09：公开完整逐字稿镜像，已读Jackson提问和紧随回复；存在自动转写错误，未核音频；只归属提问，不归属管理层承诺。", "date_basis": "澳洲镜像显示发表日07/11/2025；不是独立核实的通话日期" } ], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已取EMJ官方履历全文，只支持Founder/President及PM；搜索命中Reuters访谈与媒体价格目标，但未获得两份足够完整原始方法文本。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://emjcapital.ltd/about-eric-jackson/" ], "nextEvidence": "补本人署名公开研究或完整可读采访；不使用媒体股价目标拼个人方法。" } ] }, { "id": "B41", "name": "Mark Hawtin", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Head of Global Equities (2024 appointment)", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Liontrust", "focus": "Disruptive technology", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.liontrust.co.uk/-/media/liontrust/files/fund-literature/factsheets/uk-dom/liontrust_balanced_fund_factsheet_a_acc.pdf", "title": "Liontrust Balanced Factsheet", "date": "2024-07", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "Head of Global Equities (2024 appointment)" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份具名样本；技术成本原文跨模型口径未独立核实，不采其点估计；源时期角色。", "未审计投资结果；不视为完整研究终点" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "mark-hawtin", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B2-H1", "title": "The outlook for 2025 – Mark Hawtin section", "url": "https://www.liontrust.com/insights/blogs/2024/12/the-outlook-for-2025---multi-asset", "date": "2024-12", "access": "2026-10-08官方HTML正文读取；月份来自路径，精确发表日未核定。", "date_basis": "只核定月份；精确发表日未知，依据见access" }, { "id": "R2B2-H2", "title": "DeepSeek – what just happened in AI?", "url": "https://professionalparaplanner.co.uk/deepseek-what-just-happened-in-ai/", "date": "2025-01-29", "access": "2026-10-08全文读取；具名作者文章刊于媒体，非获取内部报告；不能将文中训练成本当全成本或把MoE称全新发明。", "date_basis": "原文显示日期" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已完成两份正文取证：正确的AI趋势为何仍可能买贵？。Hawtin关注指数集中和AI受益向使用者扩散；其他团队发言没有归给他。；文章提出AI普及与基础设施股估值可分离，并说明此前削减CapEx相关敞口；成本与技术比较为作者当时主张，未独立核实。 归属边界：两份具名样本；技术成本原文跨模型口径未独立核实，不采其点估计；源时期角色。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.liontrust.com/insights/blogs/2024/12/the-outlook-for-2025---multi-asset", "https://professionalparaplanner.co.uk/deepseek-what-just-happened-in-ai/" ], "nextEvidence": "补可归属个人的完整模型、决策与结果验证" } }, { "id": "B42", "name": "Anthony Ginsberg", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "CEO", "currentRole": null, "firm": "GinsGlobal", "focus": "Thematic ETFs", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ginsglobal-index-funds_ginsglobal-anthonyginsberg-techmegatrends-activity-7437392441030152192-9loO", "title": "GinsGlobal official company post", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "CEO" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "一份个人访谈加一份机构无署名展望；八到十主题变化未核定生效时间，不自动称当前规则。", "未审计投资结果；不视为完整研究终点" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "anthony-ginsberg", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B2-G1", "title": "Equal weighted tech – an interview with Anthony Ginsberg", "url": "https://hanetf.com/news-insights/equal-weighted-tech-an-interview-with-anthony-ginsberg/", "date": "2025-07", "access": "2026-10-08全文读取；月份由官方相关文章目录标注；未独立审计收益表。", "date_basis": "只核定月份；精确发表日未知，依据见access" }, { "id": "R2B2-G2", "title": "The New Age of Tech | Tech Megatrend Outlook 2026", "url": "https://hanetf.com/news-insights/the-new-age-of-tech-tech-megatrend-outlook-2026/", "date": "2026-01", "access": "2026-10-08正文读取；月份见官方相关文章目录；不把预租率当实际利用率。", "date_basis": "只核定月份；精确发表日未知，依据见access" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已完成两份正文取证：等权主题背后的共同客户风险。访谈以八主题各15股等权回应巨头集中；同时承认技术主题交叉与轮动难预测。；机构展望以现金融资和盈利支持AI投资，并称十主题等权；与2025八主题不同，定义变更需核对。 归属边界：一份个人访谈加一份机构无署名展望；八到十主题变化未核定生效时间，不自动称当前规则。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://hanetf.com/news-insights/equal-weighted-tech-an-interview-with-anthony-ginsberg/", "https://hanetf.com/news-insights/the-new-age-of-tech-tech-megatrend-outlook-2026/" ], "nextEvidence": "补可归属个人的完整模型、决策与结果验证" } }, { "id": "B43", "name": "Ryan Jacob", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Chief Portfolio Manager", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Jacob Asset Management", "focus": "Internet and small-cap growth", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.jacobam.com/firm/team/index.html", "title": "Jacob Asset Management Team", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "Chief Portfolio Manager" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "合署信只读取Ryan所管Internet Fund段，Discovery Fund观点不单独归于Ryan。", "未审计投资结果；不视为完整研究终点" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "ryan-jacob", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B2-J1", "title": "Management Commentary: October 2025", "url": "https://www.jacobmutualfunds.com/blog/managementcommentary-october-2025", "date": "2025-10-15", "access": "2026-10-08已读官方正文相关段落；未审计底层数据。", "date_basis": "原文显示日期" }, { "id": "R2B2-J2", "title": "Management Commentary: January 2026", "url": "https://www.jacobmutualfunds.com/blog/managementcommentary-january-2026", "date": "2026-01-13", "access": "2026-10-08已读官方正文相关段落；未审计底层数据。", "date_basis": "原文显示日期" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已完成两份正文取证：平台黏性如何转成股东回报？。Internet Fund部分讨论Circle支付基础设施与Bed Bath & Beyond的tZERO资产及重组价值，不能把整个合署信归于Ryan一人。；Internet Fund新增Snowflake的逻辑是跨云数据层、客户黏性与AI能力；竞争与估值仍需检验。 归属边界：合署信只读取Ryan所管Internet Fund段，Discovery Fund观点不单独归于Ryan。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.jacobmutualfunds.com/blog/managementcommentary-october-2025", "https://www.jacobmutualfunds.com/blog/managementcommentary-january-2026" ], "nextEvidence": "补可归属个人的完整模型、决策与结果验证" } }, { "id": "B44", "name": "Kevin Landis", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Founder and investment manager", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Firsthand Capital Management", "focus": "Technology and cleantech", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://firsthandcapital.com/index.php?fuseaction=about.main", "title": "About Firsthand", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "Founder and investment manager" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "历史信件和不同基金产品不能拼成当前组合；本卡侧重可迁移流动性约束。", "未审计投资结果；不视为完整研究终点" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "kevin-landis", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B2-L1", "title": "Firsthand Funds Semi-Annual Report June 30 2023", "url": "https://firsthandfunds.com/documents/reports/semiannual_report.pdf", "date": "2023-06-30", "access": "2026-10-08已读PDF第4–6页；日期为报告期末，送出日在正文未核定。", "date_basis": "报告期末（period end）；发表日期未核定（publication unknown）" }, { "id": "R2B2-L2", "title": "2015 Annual Shareholder Letter", "url": "https://firsthandtvf.com/index.php?fuseaction=press.shareholder_letter", "date": null, "access": "2026-10-08全文已读；2015年度信，正文涉及2016年事项，精确发表日未知。", "date_basis": "发表日期未知（publication unknown）" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已完成两份正文取证：IPO与账面价值怎样变成可用现金？。信件把未配置大市值股的相对拖累与Chegg被生成式AI替代的新客风险分开。；区分私企经营进度、IPO锁定、退出现金与基金NAV折价；成熟需要多年，上市不等于可兑现。 归属边界：历史信件和不同基金产品不能拼成当前组合；本卡侧重可迁移流动性约束。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://firsthandfunds.com/documents/reports/semiannual_report.pdf", "https://firsthandtvf.com/index.php?fuseaction=press.shareholder_letter" ], "nextEvidence": "补可归属个人的完整模型、决策与结果验证" } }, { "id": "B45", "name": "J. Paul Meeks", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Co-Chief Investment Officer (historical)", "currentRole": "Head of Technology Research, Freedom Capital Markets（2026-10-09官方团队页核验）", "firm": "Harvest Portfolio Management (historical)", "focus": "Technology", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.freedomcapmkts.com/equityresearch", "title": "Freedom Capital Markets Equity Research Team", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-08", "accessLevel": "official full page text opened", "whatVerified": "Paul Meeks列Head of Technology Research；机构向美国机构投资者分发股票研究" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两次采访属历史买方时期；现任卖方另记。搜索返回带时间戳正文，直连429；Lisa Su插播和主持人提问不归Meeks。", "未完成完整方法及结果审计" ], "eligibility": "Historical buy-side methodology; current sell-side verified", "priority": false, "profileId": "paul-meeks", "roleNote": "候选归类按2024–2025历史买方材料保留；不计作现任买方分析师", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "已补齐两项独立实质材料，形成有限方法档案及合成练习：AI资本开支如何转成供应商可兑现收入？。两次采访属历史买方时期；现任卖方另记。搜索返回带时间戳正文，直连429；Lisa Su插播和主持人提问不归Meeks。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://finance.yahoo.com/video/ai-capex-pivotal-figure-tech-162421261.html", "https://finance.yahoo.com/video/why-tech-investor-buying-strike-100022413.html", "https://www.freedomcapmkts.com/equityresearch" ], "nextEvidence": "继续检验反例、决策执行与长期结果；两篇材料不等于完整方法认证。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G3-M1", "title": "AI capex will be pivotal figure in tech, chip earnings", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/video/ai-capex-pivotal-figure-tech-162421261.html", "date": "2024-08-01", "access": "2026-10-09：搜索服务返回Yahoo原始页面的带时间戳采访正文，已读00:00–09:14；直连429，未核音频，非whole-page直读。", "date_basis": "页面显示发表日期" }, { "id": "O9G3-M2", "title": "Why this tech investor is on a buying strike", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/video/why-tech-investor-buying-strike-100022413.html", "date": "2025-04-01", "access": "2026-10-09：搜索服务返回Yahoo原始页面带时间戳采访正文，已读00:00–08:20；直连429，未核音频。", "date_basis": "页面显示发表日期" } ], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "重读Freedom官方研究团队页，现任Head of Technology Research为卖方；原买方提名只能保留为历史候选。 进一步按Harvest官网检索找到两项历史采访路径；直接请求两个页面均404，未取得可复核正文，不能据摘要升级。 进一步按Harvest官网检索找到两项历史采访路径；直接请求两个页面均404，未取得可复核正文，不能据摘要升级。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.freedomcapmkts.com/equityresearch", "https://www.harvestportfoliomanagement.com/news/tech-investor-paul-meeks-predicts-ongoing-ai-infrastructure-development-for-the-next-few-years", "https://www.harvestportfoliomanagement.com/news/navigating-the-tech-landscape-insights-on-ai-and-emerging-tech-trends-paul-meeks-on-benzinga", "https://www.harvestportfoliomanagement.com/news/tech-investor-paul-meeks-predicts-ongoing-ai-infrastructure-development-for-the-next-few-years", "https://www.harvestportfoliomanagement.com/news/navigating-the-tech-landscape-insights-on-ai-and-emerging-tech-trends-paul-meeks-on-benzinga" ], "nextEvidence": "恢复两项Harvest时期实质采访或其他可读原文；现任Freedom卖方与历史买方分开。" } ] }, { "id": "B46", "name": "Hendi Susanto", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Co-Portfolio Manager", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Gabelli", "focus": "Semiconductors, equipment, automation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://gabelli.com/research/navigating-market-turbulence-strategies-from-portfolio-managers/", "title": "AI Hype vs Reality", "date": "2024-08-12", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "opened text read", "whatVerified": "Co-Portfolio Manager" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "共同研究中的个人贡献无法拆分", "未审计持仓、预测结果或收益", "管理层陈述仍需发行人原文交叉核对" ], "deepResearch": { "atlasFile": "buy_36_70_atlas.json", "profileId": "hendi-susanto", "methodStatus": "historical method sample; not recurring-method certified", "sources": [ { "id": "BX-HS-20240812", "title": "AI Hype vs. Reality: Navigating Tech Investments with Discipline", "date": "2024-08-12", "url": "https://gabelli.com/research/navigating-market-turbulence-strategies-from-portfolio-managers/", "authors": "Hendi Susanto（该署名小节）", "access": "2026-10-07已读取完整Hendi署名小节；其他作者段落不归于他", "summary": "AI可推动多年半导体投资，但传统终端库存调整与过高估值仍能并存；强调竞争结构和安全边际。" }, { "id": "BX-HS-20250422", "title": "Gabelli Japan Research: Finding Technology Leaders", "date": "2025-04-22", "url": "https://gabelli.com/research/gabelli-japan-research-finding-technology-leaders/", "authors": "Ryuta Makino and Hendi Susanto", "access": "2026-10-07读取正文主要研究段落及作者披露；网页图表未独立重算。共同署名，不能拆为Hendi独立研究。", "summary": "通过日本企业调研讨论技术换代、客户集中、库存与利润传导；本文的市场份额和管理层预测均为当时材料陈述，未经当前复核。" } ] }, "priority": true, "profileId": "hendi-susanto", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "BX-HS-20240812", "title": "AI Hype vs. Reality: Navigating Tech Investments with Discipline", "url": "https://gabelli.com/research/navigating-market-turbulence-strategies-from-portfolio-managers/", "date": "2024-08-12", "access": "2026-10-07已读取完整Hendi署名小节；其他作者段落不归于他" }, { "id": "BX-HS-20250422", "title": "Gabelli Japan Research: Finding Technology Leaders", "url": "https://gabelli.com/research/gabelli-japan-research-finding-technology-leaders/", "date": "2025-04-22", "access": "2026-10-07读取正文主要研究段落及作者披露；网页图表未独立重算。共同署名，不能拆为Hendi独立研究。" } ] }, { "id": "B47", "name": "Walter Price", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager (2016)", "currentRole": null, "firm": "AllianzGI (historical)", "focus": "Technology", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.allianztechnologytrust.com/-/media/allianzgi/eu/allianz-technology-trust/docs/annual-financial-report/annual-financial-report-allianz-technology-trust-30-11-2016.pdf?hash=AB4FAB28B0931E8103220F2435F80CBE&rev=-1", "title": "Allianz Technology Trust Annual Report", "date": "2016-11-30", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager (2016)" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份为共同负责团队的机构报告；不能分配为Walter独立观点，不验证现职。", "未审计投资结果；不视为完整研究终点" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "walter-price", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B2-A16", "title": "Allianz Technology Trust Annual Financial Report 2016", "url": "https://www.allianztechnologytrust.com/-/media/allianzgi/eu/allianz-technology-trust/docs/annual-financial-report/annual-financial-report-allianz-technology-trust-30-11-2016.pdf", "date": "2016-11-30", "access": "2026-10-08下载官方PDF并提取正文；PDF pp.11、14–16；日期为财年末，非出版日。", "date_basis": "报告期末（period end）；发表日期未核定（publication unknown）" }, { "id": "R2B2-A20", "title": "Allianz Technology Trust Annual Financial Report 2020", "url": "https://www.allianztechnologytrust.com/-/media/allianzgi/eu/allianz-technology-trust/docs/annual-financial-report/annual-financial-report-allianz-technology-trust-31-12-2020.pdf", "date": "2020-12-31", "access": "2026-10-08下载官方PDF；PDF pp.20、23、40–46相关章节；日期为财年末。", "date_basis": "报告期末（period end）；发表日期未核定（publication unknown）" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已完成两份正文取证：采用增长与估值扩张分拆。管理人报告将新技术高增长与成熟业务整合、回购分开，并以产品周期和子行业分散风险。；管理人报告分拆疫情下远程采用、付费转换与低利率带来的估值扩张；绝对上涨与相对收益不同。 归属边界：两份为共同负责团队的机构报告；不能分配为Walter独立观点，不验证现职。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.allianztechnologytrust.com/-/media/allianzgi/eu/allianz-technology-trust/docs/annual-financial-report/annual-financial-report-allianz-technology-trust-30-11-2016.pdf", "https://www.allianztechnologytrust.com/-/media/allianzgi/eu/allianz-technology-trust/docs/annual-financial-report/annual-financial-report-allianz-technology-trust-31-12-2020.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "补可归属个人的完整模型、决策与结果验证" } }, { "id": "B48", "name": "Huachen Chen", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Senior Portfolio Manager (2016)", "currentRole": null, "firm": "AllianzGI (historical)", "focus": "Technology", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.allianztechnologytrust.com/-/media/allianzgi/eu/allianz-technology-trust/docs/annual-financial-report/annual-financial-report-allianz-technology-trust-30-11-2016.pdf?hash=AB4FAB28B0931E8103220F2435F80CBE&rev=-1", "title": "Allianz Technology Trust Annual Report", "date": "2016-11-30", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "Senior Portfolio Manager (2016)" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "机构团队资料，Huachen为共同负责人，不将共同文本包装成其个人独有方法；历史样本。", "未审计投资结果；不视为完整研究终点" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "huachen-chen", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B2-A16", "title": "Allianz Technology Trust Annual Financial Report 2016", "url": "https://www.allianztechnologytrust.com/-/media/allianzgi/eu/allianz-technology-trust/docs/annual-financial-report/annual-financial-report-allianz-technology-trust-30-11-2016.pdf", "date": "2016-11-30", "access": "2026-10-08下载官方PDF并提取正文；PDF pp.11、14–16；日期为财年末，非出版日。", "date_basis": "报告期末（period end）；发表日期未核定（publication unknown）" }, { "id": "R2B2-A20", "title": "Allianz Technology Trust Annual Financial Report 2020", "url": "https://www.allianztechnologytrust.com/-/media/allianzgi/eu/allianz-technology-trust/docs/annual-financial-report/annual-financial-report-allianz-technology-trust-31-12-2020.pdf", "date": "2020-12-31", "access": "2026-10-08下载官方PDF；PDF pp.20、23、40–46相关章节；日期为财年末。", "date_basis": "报告期末（period end）；发表日期未核定（publication unknown）" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已完成两份正文取证：科技生命周期分散是否真能降低风险？。管理人报告将新技术高增长与成熟业务整合、回购分开，并以产品周期和子行业分散风险。；管理人报告分拆疫情下远程采用、付费转换与低利率带来的估值扩张；绝对上涨与相对收益不同。 归属边界：机构团队资料，Huachen为共同负责人，不将共同文本包装成其个人独有方法；历史样本。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.allianztechnologytrust.com/-/media/allianzgi/eu/allianz-technology-trust/docs/annual-financial-report/annual-financial-report-allianz-technology-trust-30-11-2016.pdf", "https://www.allianztechnologytrust.com/-/media/allianzgi/eu/allianz-technology-trust/docs/annual-financial-report/annual-financial-report-allianz-technology-trust-31-12-2020.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "补可归属个人的完整模型、决策与结果验证" } }, { "id": "B49", "name": "Alex Ely", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Appointed boutique equity investment team leader", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Delaware Investments / Macquarie (historical)", "focus": "Small/mid-cap growth", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.macquarie.com/se/en/about/news/2015/delaware-investments-to-acquire-bennett-lawrence-mgmt-llc.html", "title": "Delaware acquisition announcement", "date": "2015", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "Appointed boutique equity investment team leader" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "原发布方两篇采访报道；Ely个人明确引语和记者转述分开；不复制个股清单或未核收益，非现任确认。", "未完成完整方法及结果审计" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "alex-ely", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "已补齐两项独立实质材料，形成有限方法档案及合成练习：长期替代趋势是否足够补偿估值风险？。原发布方两篇采访报道；Ely个人明确引语和记者转述分开；不复制个股清单或未核收益，非现任确认。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-outperform-innovation-disruption-macquarie-growth-small-caps-2022-4", "https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-massive-growth-couple-years-growth-investment-chief-2022-6" ], "nextEvidence": "继续检验反例、决策执行与长期结果；两篇材料不等于完整方法认证。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G3-E1", "title": "Macquarie growth chief: disruptive themes and 13 holdings", "url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-outperform-innovation-disruption-macquarie-growth-small-caps-2022-4", "date": "2022-04-28", "access": "2026-10-09：原采访发布方公开返回正文已读；编辑报道含本人具名引语，非本人独著或完整录音转录。", "date_basis": "页面显示发表日期" }, { "id": "O9G3-E2", "title": "Growth-investment chief explains his three-part investing strategy", "url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-massive-growth-couple-years-growth-investment-chief-2022-6", "date": "2022-06-27", "access": "2026-10-09：原采访发布方公开返回正文已读；只提炼流程段，未验证文中表现和股票预测。", "date_basis": "页面显示发表日期" } ], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "Alex Ely+Macquarie+disruption检索含大量同名建筑师；打开2015 Macquarie收购公告仅支持历史管理角色，不能作为两份研究。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.macquarie.com/au/en/about/news/2015/delaware-investments-to-acquire-bennett-lawrence-mgmt-llc.html" ], "nextEvidence": "需Macquarie美国成长股票团队署名研究/原访谈两份；排除同名建筑师。" } ] }, { "id": "B50", "name": "Douglas Brodie", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "买方；Baillie Gifford Discovery基金经理（2024–2025来源时）", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Baillie Gifford", "focus": "Discovery and small-cap growth", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/institutional-investor/insights/", "title": "Official insights directory", "date": "2025-07", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "Investment manager (2025 source)" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "缺公司级模型和实时持仓", "未核验原始临床数据或公司运营指标", "来源将宏观与股价关联，因果未独立识别" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "O8BB-douglas-brodie", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "O8BB-douglas-brodie", "methodCertification": "historical method samples; recurring personal method not certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8BB-DB24", "title": "Discovery Q2 investment update — July 2024", "date": "2024-07", "url": "https://media.bailliegifford.com/mws/5hwbby2a/20240712084931_baillie-gifford-film-discovery-q2-update-transcript-july-2024.pdf", "authors": "Douglas Brodie; interviewer Bill Chater", "summary": "区分经营进展、执行波折与增长空间收缩，讨论Raspberry Pi工业应用和边缘AI机会。", "access": "2026-10-08：官方PDF实质访谈第1–4页读取；第1页答话标签误写Dougald，封面与主持人明确Douglas；不把主持人的总结归于Brodie。" }, { "id": "O8BB-DB25", "title": "Discovery Q2 investment update — July 2025", "date": "2025-07", "url": "https://media.bailliegifford.com/mws/4umpoof3/20250709114359_discovery-q2-update-transcript-jul-2025.pdf", "authors": "Douglas Brodie", "summary": "区分技术驱动和政策驱动的增长，承认组合回撤，并跟踪Sweetgreen等公司的需求和竞争风险。", "access": "2026-10-08：官方PDF第1–2页投资评论完整读取；后续业绩与法规页未作收益审计。" } ] }, { "id": "B51", "name": "Cathie Wood", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "CEO and CIO", "currentRole": null, "firm": "ARK Invest", "focus": "Disruptive innovation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.ark-invest.com/our-team", "title": "Meet ARK", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "opened text read", "whatVerified": "CEO and CIO" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份机构材料；无日期流程页不构成两次具名个人研究，保留既有wood-ark。", "未审计投资结果；不视为完整研究终点" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "wood-ark", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "D01", "title": "ARK Investment Process", "url": "https://www.ark-invest.com/investment-process", "date": null, "access": "2026-10-08重新打开官方正文；机构作者，非Cathie个人独著。" }, { "id": "D02", "title": "Big Ideas: Investment Opportunity Report 2026 Summary", "url": "https://www.ark-funds.com/articles/etf/big-ideas-the-investment-opportunity-report-2026-summary", "date": "2026-09-10", "access": "2026-10-08重新打开官方正文；机构作者，非Cathie个人独著。" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已完成两份正文取证：成本下降能否兑现为股东收益？。机构成本曲线与需求弹性框架；五年模型纳入销量、成本、稀释和估值。；2026摘要把AI成本下降与token增长联系；800/135与“近3倍”表述不一致，应重算而非沿用。 归属边界：两份机构材料；无日期流程页不构成两次具名个人研究，保留既有wood-ark。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.ark-invest.com/investment-process", "https://www.ark-funds.com/articles/etf/big-ideas-the-investment-opportunity-report-2026-summary" ], "nextEvidence": "补可归属个人的完整模型、决策与结果验证" } }, { "id": "B52", "name": "Brett Winton", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "买方研究；ARK具名公开评论（2022–2023来源时）", "currentRole": null, "firm": "ARK Invest", "focus": "Technology convergence", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.ark-invest.com/our-team", "title": "Meet ARK", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "opened text read", "whatVerified": "Chief Futurist and Venture Investment Committee member" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "第三方收入年化和融资分类未复算", "合同限制、补贴与外部客户收入须逐案检查", "无预测准确率或基金收益审计" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "O8BB-brett-winton", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "O8BB-brett-winton", "methodCertification": "historical method samples; recurring personal method not certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8BB-BW22", "title": "ARK Venture Commentary, 12/9/2022", "date": "2022-12-15", "url": "https://www.ark-funds.com/articles/venture-fund/ark-venture-commentary-12-9-2022", "authors": "Brett Winton / ARK", "summary": "区分生成式AI流量热潮、持久优势与收费模式；推理成本影响广告模式可行性。", "access": "2026-10-08：官方HTML两个AI小节读取；页面发布日期Dec 15，标题12/9为原始期号，不当作发布日期；第三方App数据未重算。" }, { "id": "O8BB-BW23", "title": "ARK Venture Commentary, 7/11/2023", "date": "2023-07-11", "url": "https://www.ark-funds.com/articles/venture-fund/ark-venture-commentary-7-11-2023", "authors": "Brett Winton / ARK", "summary": "讨论数据平台与模型开发协同，同时指出供应商投资回流收入及对竞争的潜在约束。", "access": "2026-10-08：官方HTML三个研究小节完整读取；日期与署名核验；Crunchbase底层数据和具体投资条款未独立审计。" } ] }, { "id": "B53", "name": "Tasha Keeney", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "买方研究；ARK自动驾驶研究与联合估值模型作者（2023–2024来源时）", "currentRole": null, "firm": "ARK Invest", "focus": "Autonomy, robotics, financial modeling", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.ark-invest.com/our-team", "title": "Meet ARK", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "opened text read", "whatVerified": "Director of Research Autonomous Technology & Robotics / Director of Investment Analysis" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未执行公开模拟或审计输入相关性", "未核验安全原始样本与监管资格", "2027及2029估值窗口未作结果审计", "2023与2024预测须保持原始时间与条件，不能用相邻成功替代" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "O8BB-tasha-keeney", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "O8BB-tasha-keeney", "methodCertification": "historical method samples; recurring personal method not certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8BB-TK23", "title": "ARK’s Expected Value For Tesla In 2027: $2,000 Per Share", "date": "2023-04-21", "url": "https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/arks-tesla-price-target-2027", "authors": "Tasha Keeney, Sam Korus and Daniel Maguire", "summary": "公开模型把投产、资本效率与robotaxi推出时间连接至估值分布，并披露样本与模型局限。", "access": "2026-10-08：官方网页正文重点读取Model Inputs、Share Price Forecast、Risks and Limits；核验联合署名和日期；未运行GitHub模拟或重算图表，非2027结果审计。" }, { "id": "O8BB-TK24", "title": "Countdown To Cybercab, Tesla’s Multi-Trillion Dollar Robotaxi Opportunity", "date": "2024-10-09", "url": "https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/countdown-to-cybercab", "authors": "Tasha Keeney", "summary": "将兼容车辆、车队扩张、服务利用率与平台抽成连接，并区分地址市场和预测收入。", "access": "2026-10-08：官方网页实质正文读取，包括数据口径注记；未核验供应商安全性原始数据或图表；这是2024预测样本，不代表当前技术/监管状态。" } ] }, { "id": "B54", "name": "James Anderson", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Managing Partner and CIO Innovation", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Lingotto", "focus": "Long-term innovation", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.lingotto.com/innovation/team", "title": "Lingotto Innovation Team", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "Managing Partner and CIO Innovation" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "2021仅JA发言归Anderson，John Kay的回答保留其本人归属；日期只知月份；2022自我反思不等于完整收益审计。", "未完成完整方法及结果审计" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "james-anderson", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "已补齐两项独立实质材料，形成有限方法档案及合成练习：少数大赢家与无法量化的不确定性如何共存？。2021仅JA发言归Anderson，John Kay的回答保留其本人归属；日期只知月份；2022自我反思不等于完整收益审计。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/ireland/professional-investor/insights/ic-article/2021-q3-rethinking-risk-author-interview-ins-ar-0856/?printversion=true", "https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/insights/ic-article/2022-q1-trust-44-influencers-collecting-thoughts-in-an-evolving-world-10008352/" ], "nextEvidence": "继续检验反例、决策执行与长期结果；两篇材料不等于完整方法认证。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G3-A1", "title": "Rethinking Risk: Uncertainty and Investment Returns", "url": "https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/ireland/professional-investor/insights/ic-article/2021-q3-rethinking-risk-author-interview-ins-ar-0856/?printversion=true", "date": "2021-08", "access": "2026-10-09：Baillie Gifford官方双人对话已读；只归属JA明确发言，John Kay回答不转归Anderson。", "date_basis": "原文August2021制作批准，日不详" }, { "id": "O9G3-A2", "title": "Collecting thoughts", "url": "https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/insights/ic-article/2022-q1-trust-44-influencers-collecting-thoughts-in-an-evolving-world-10008352/", "date": "2022-04", "access": "2026-10-09：Baillie Gifford官方署名正文已读；历史Scottish Mortgage时期，不表述为当前Lingotto持仓。", "date_basis": "原文April2022／Spring2022，日不详" } ], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "读取Lingotto官方媒体目录及Money Maze 2025-02-06节目页；所谓transcript区是富文本占位模板，只有节目概要，不能声称逐字稿已读。 补读Behind the Balance Sheet完整2025访谈中Anderson本人关于AI长期机会、短期资本回报和循环融资的段落；第二份2019官方Baillie Gifford PDF请求403，仅一份实质正文达标。 补读Behind the Balance Sheet完整2025访谈中Anderson本人关于AI长期机会、短期资本回报和循环融资的段落；第二份2019官方Baillie Gifford PDF请求403，仅一份实质正文达标。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.lingotto.com/innovation/news-and-press", "https://www.moneymazepodcast.com/podcast/james-anderson", "https://behindthebalancesheet.com/podcasts-singles/54-the-innovation-fans/", "https://media.bailliegifford.com/mws/rfymqkoc/20240422131021_ltggxv-fifteen-years-of-ltgg-2019-spread-bgmj-ex-us.pdf", "https://behindthebalancesheet.com/podcasts-singles/54-the-innovation-fans/", "https://media.bailliegifford.com/mws/rfymqkoc/20240422131021_ltggxv-fifteen-years-of-ltgg-2019-spread-bgmj-ex-us.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "再取得一份Anderson可归属原始研究；Morgan段不归给Anderson。" } ] }, { "id": "B55", "name": "Tom Slater", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "买方；Scottish Mortgage基金经理（2024–2025来源时）", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Baillie Gifford", "focus": "Long-term growth", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/private-growth-investing/tom-slater/", "title": "Tom Slater", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "Head US Equities; Scottish Mortgage manager" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "缺具体持仓成本、交易日期及完整估值模型", "供应商利润压缩与采用扩张必须分别验证", "未审计预测和投资业绩" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "O8BB-tom-slater", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "O8BB-tom-slater", "methodCertification": "historical method samples; recurring personal method not certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8BB-TS24", "title": "Tom Slater: Manager Review — November 2024", "date": "2024-11", "url": "https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/insights/ic-article/sm-articles-2024-q4-tom-slater-manager-review-10051274/", "authors": "Tom Slater", "summary": "在AI成本与资本开支可持续性之间建立约束，并区分技术信心和具体持仓。", "access": "2026-10-08：官方HTML正文读取；重点Artificial Intelligence及Capital Allocation；仅披露月份，未核验交易明细或图表。" }, { "id": "O8BB-TS25", "title": "Tom Slater: Manager Review — May 2025", "date": "2025-05", "url": "https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/belgium/professional-investor/insights/ic-article/sm-articles-2025-bg-tom-slater-manager-review-10055356/", "authors": "Tom Slater", "summary": "讨论AI普及下的供应商价值捕获、风险回报及企业适应力。", "access": "2026-10-08：官方HTML正文读取；重点The Rise of AI and the Shifting Shape of Value、Resilience as a Strategic Advantage；未重算基金业绩。" } ] }, { "id": "B56", "name": "Lawrence Burns", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "买方；Scottish Mortgage副基金经理（2024–2025来源时）", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Baillie Gifford", "focus": "International concentrated growth", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/institutional-investor/insights/", "title": "Official insights directory", "date": "2026-03", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "Investment manager" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "技术参数如GPT-4规模为来源估计，不作为已验证事实", "缺未成功公司对照组及多业务概率校准", "未审计真实交易或组合收益" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "O8BB-lawrence-burns", "roleNote": "", "atlasProfileId": "O8BB-lawrence-burns", "methodCertification": "historical method samples; recurring personal method not certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8BB-LB24", "title": "Lawrence Burns on artificial intelligence: manager review", "date": "2024-05", "url": "https://www.scottishmortgage.com/en/uk/individual-investors/insights/ic-article/sm-articles-2024-q2-lawrence-burns-manager-review-10047502", "authors": "Lawrence Burns", "summary": "用硬件、基础设施、应用三层定位受益与时滞，同时保留硬件需求消化期的可能。", "access": "2026-10-08：官方HTML正文读取；The Layers of Artificial Intelligence、Applications、Conclusion；技术参数与市场数字是作者当时陈述，未独立确认。" }, { "id": "O8BB-LB25", "title": "Lawrence Burns: Manager Review — May 2025", "date": "2025-05", "url": "https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/belgium/professional-investor/insights/ic-article/sm-articles-2025-bg-lawrence-burns-manager-review-10055358/", "authors": "Lawrence Burns", "summary": "讨论异常优秀企业的多次业务扩张、长期投入与适应能力，并强调新增业务价值的不确定性。", "access": "2026-10-08：官方HTML正文读取；Outliers Address Large Opportunities及Outliers are Adaptable；未重算收益图表。" } ] }, { "id": "B57", "name": "Michael Pye", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Long Term Global Growth investment manager", "currentRole": "SEC 2026-01-27公告：约2026-02-20起不再任LTGG基金经理及团队成员；后续职位未核验", "firm": "Baillie Gifford", "focus": "Long-term disruptive growth", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/institutional-investor/insights/", "title": "Official insights directory", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "Long Term Global Growth investment manager" }, { "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120543/000110465926006672/tm264045d1_497.htm", "title": "Baillie Gifford Funds prospectus supplement", "date": "2026-01-27", "accessed": "2026-10-08", "accessLevel": "official filing full relevant paragraph read", "whatVerified": "约2026-02-20退出LTGG基金及团队" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "有限公开方法样本，不是完整个人体系或投资业绩认证", "现职与资料期角色分别核验" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "o9g4-b57", "roleNote": "历史LTGG样本候选，不列为当前LTGG经理。", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "已读两份独立实质材料，补齐有限方法档案及三阶段合成练习；只使用可归属本人回答。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://media.bailliegifford.com/mws/xefj51ce/ltgg-q1-investment-update-transcript.pdf", "https://media.bailliegifford.com/mws/elujt4z5/baillie-gifford-film-ltgg-q4-update-transcript-jan-2024.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "继续补充反面时期及真实执行证据，不将方法样本等同完整方法或业绩认证。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G4-B57-A", "title": "LTGG Q1 investment update", "date": "2023-04", "url": "https://media.bailliegifford.com/mws/xefj51ce/ltgg-q1-investment-update-transcript.pdf", "access": "2026-10-09读取；官网PDF逐字稿文本已读；文件仅列月份，非具体日；实际阅读范围：PDF第1–2页，MP回答财务韧性和适应能力" }, { "id": "O9G4-B57-B", "title": "Long Term Global Growth Q4 investment update", "date": "2024-01", "url": "https://media.bailliegifford.com/mws/elujt4z5/baillie-gifford-film-ltgg-q4-update-transcript-jan-2024.pdf", "access": "2026-10-09读取；官网PDF截图直接阅读第1–3页；文本提取失败；文件仅列月份；实际阅读范围：PDF第1–3页图像，MP回答持仓增长、自由现金流及规模效应" } ], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "检索Michael Pye定位SEC 2026-01-27补充文件，正文明确约2026-02-20起退出LTGG基金与团队；官网研究目录请求超时。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120543/000110465926006672/tm264045d1_497.htm", "https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/institutional-investor/insights/" ], "nextEvidence": "补历史具名研究正文两份，不能继续表述现任LTGG经理。" } ] }, { "id": "B58", "name": "Mark Denham", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Head of Equities and Fund Manager", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Carmignac", "focus": "European quality growth", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.carmignac.com/en-fr/people/mark-denham-51", "title": "Mark Denham", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "Head of Equities and Fund Manager" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "跨年具名方法样本，不外推实际未来收益；个人护理不是天然无周期，原文需求预测尚待验证。", "未审计投资结果；不视为完整研究终点" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "mark-denham", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B2-M1", "title": "Carmignac’s Mark Denham shares his investment recipe", "url": "https://carmignaceuropeanequities.citywirecontent.com/2020/05/carmignacs-aaa-rated-mark-denham-shares-his-investment-recipe/", "date": "2020-05", "access": "2026-10-08访谈全文读取；精确日未知，月份来自发布路径；赞助材料，不采用评级为能力证据。", "date_basis": "只核定月份；精确发表日未知，依据见access" }, { "id": "R2B2-M2", "title": "Beyond the plate – Why we favour personal care over food companies", "url": "https://www.carmignac.com/en/articles/beyond-the-plate-why-we-favour-personal-care-over-food-companies-3227-11140?_format=pdf", "date": "2025-02-24", "access": "2026-10-08官方PDF pp.1–2读取；其中共识为原文当时引用，非本轮独立核验当前共识。", "date_basis": "原文显示日期" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已完成两份正文取证：防御性标签不能代替需求与利润模型。以资本回报、再投资和经营利润率稳定性作筛选，再做基本面与ESG研究，持有期3–5年。；将日常消费标签拆为食品与个人护理；从需求变化、有机增长与经营杠杆推导不同盈利及估值。 归属边界：跨年具名方法样本，不外推实际未来收益；个人护理不是天然无周期，原文需求预测尚待验证。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://carmignaceuropeanequities.citywirecontent.com/2020/05/carmignacs-aaa-rated-mark-denham-shares-his-investment-recipe/", "https://www.carmignac.com/en/articles/beyond-the-plate-why-we-favour-personal-care-over-food-companies-3227-11140?_format=pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "补可归属个人的完整模型、决策与结果验证" } }, { "id": "B59", "name": "Peter Seilern", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Founder; retirement announced 2024-09-26", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Seilern", "focus": "Quality growth methodology", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.seilernfunds.com/news-and-media/", "title": "Retirement of founder Peter Seilern", "date": "2024-09-26", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "opened text read", "whatVerified": "Founder; retirement announced 2024-09-26" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "一份个人交接信加无日期机构流程页；不视为两份个人独著或跨期方法认证，按退休前历史身份。", "未审计投资结果；不视为完整研究终点" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "peter-seilern", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B2-S1", "title": "Letter to Investors", "url": "https://www.seilernfunds.com/blog/letter-from-peter-seilern/", "date": "2024-09-26", "access": "2026-10-08已读官方正文相关段落；未审计底层数据。", "date_basis": "原文显示日期" }, { "id": "R2B2-S2", "title": "Investment Philosophy", "url": "https://www.seilernfunds.com/seilern-philosophy/", "date": null, "access": "2026-10-08已读官方正文相关段落；未审计底层数据。", "date_basis": "发表日期未知（publication unknown）" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已完成两份正文取证：高ROIC与可持续再投资。退休交接信强调清晰规则、可复制流程、团队独立性与长期激励；不承诺每个周期跑赢。；十项质量标准包含低资本强度、高投入资本回报和低净负债；机构以研究与集中组合实施。 归属边界：一份个人交接信加无日期机构流程页；不视为两份个人独著或跨期方法认证，按退休前历史身份。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.seilernfunds.com/blog/letter-from-peter-seilern/", "https://www.seilernfunds.com/seilern-philosophy/" ], "nextEvidence": "补可归属个人的完整模型、决策与结果验证" } }, { "id": "B60", "name": "David Rolfe", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Chief Investment Officer", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Wedgewood Partners", "focus": "Concentrated quality growth", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://wedgewoodpartners.com/our-team/", "title": "Our Team", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "Chief Investment Officer" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份均为三人合署客户信，不称Rolfe独著；两份均以公开原文PDF镜像读取，未核验官方字节。", "未审计投资结果；不视为完整研究终点" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "david-rolfe", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B2-W2", "title": "Wedgewood Partners Second Quarter 2025 Client Letter", "url": "https://wedgewoodpartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Wedgewood-Partners-Second-Quarter-2025-Client-Letter-A-Day-in-the-Stock-Market-Life.pdf", "date": "2025-07", "access": "2026-10-08读原始合署信公开PDF镜像pp.5–8及p.16署名；官方URL随后返回502，未核对镜像与官方字节一致性。", "date_basis": "信末署名月份；非报告期末；精确发表日未知" }, { "id": "R2B2-W4", "title": "Wedgewood Partners Fourth Quarter 2025 Client Letter", "url": "https://imonkey-files.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/4Q25-Wedgewood%20Partners.pdf", "date": "2026-01", "access": "2026-10-08读原始合署信第三方公开PDF镜像pp.6–8及p.24署名；未与官方字节比对。", "date_basis": "信末署名月份；非报告期末；精确发表日未知" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已完成两份正文取证：利润增长来自核心效率还是高毛利副业？。Zoetis案例从宠物医疗渗透、产品延伸研发和资本回报构造投资逻辑，同时区分疫情提升与正常化增长。；Amazon新仓论证分拆广告增长与零售生产率对利润贡献，再讨论AWS硬件、资本开支与估值；分部利润不能直接当核心零售效率。 归属边界：两份均为三人合署客户信，不称Rolfe独著；两份均以公开原文PDF镜像读取，未核验官方字节。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://wedgewoodpartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Wedgewood-Partners-Second-Quarter-2025-Client-Letter-A-Day-in-the-Stock-Market-Life.pdf", "https://imonkey-files.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/4Q25-Wedgewood%20Partners.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "补可归属个人的完整模型、决策与结果验证" } }, { "id": "B61", "name": "冯明远", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "首席投资官、信澳研究优选混合等基金经理（2026年第二季度报告，截至2026-06-30）", "currentRole": null, "firm": "信达澳亚基金", "focus": "新兴制造业、电子、AI算力、半导体、新能源", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.fscinda.com/upload/pdf/1784595707272-xinaoyanjiuyouxuanhunhexingzhengquantouzijijin2026niandi2jidubaogao.pdf", "title": "信澳研究优选混合型证券投资基金2026年第2季度报告", "date": "2026-07-21", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official PDF directly opened; relevant identity and strategy sections read", "whatVerified": "PDF第3–4页基金经理表确认冯明远为本基金基金经理、首席投资官；2020-06-22起任本基金经理，截至报告期末2026-06-30无离任日期。浙江大学工学硕士、2014年1月加入信达澳亚的履历核对。第5页列示新兴制造业及科技相关投资领域。" }, { "url": "https://www.fscinda.com/upload/pdf/1776733370924-xinaoxinnengyuanchanyegupiaoxingzhengquantouzijijin2026niandi1jidubaogao.pdf", "title": "信澳新能源产业股票型证券投资基金2026年第1季度报告", "date": "2026-04-21", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official PDF directly opened; relevant identity and strategy sections read", "whatVerified": "PDF第3–4页确认冯明远为信澳新能源产业基金经理、首席投资官，任职起始2016-10-19；报告期末2026-03-31。履历与二季度报告一致。" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "有限公开方法样本，不是完整个人体系或投资业绩认证", "现职与资料期角色分别核验" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "o9g4-b61", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "已读两份独立实质材料，补齐有限方法档案及三阶段合成练习；只使用可归属本人回答。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.jiemian.com/article/3905765.html", "https://www.chnfund.com/article/AR2020101510331068621443" ], "nextEvidence": "继续补充反面时期及真实执行证据，不将方法样本等同完整方法或业绩认证。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G4-B61-A", "title": "专访冯明远：每月看5家公司", "date": "2020-02-14", "url": "https://www.jiemian.com/article/3905765.html", "access": "2026-10-09读取；原刊全文问答已读，交叉复核页面日期；实际阅读范围：投资与研究两节，规模、卖出条件、亏损原因、产业演进" }, { "id": "O9G4-B61-B", "title": "科技为矛周期为盾：选出跑得又快又远的公司", "date": "2020-10-15", "url": "https://www.chnfund.com/article/AR2020101510331068621443", "access": "2026-10-09读取；公开原始材料正文已读；实际阅读范围：寻找好公司一节；五因素、产业链研究和分散" } ], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已下载并逐段读2026Q1新能源产业与2026Q2研究优选报告4.4；内容仅为行业配置和新兴制造主题，缺估值、竞争机制与反证条件，不足形成个人方法。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.fscinda.com/upload/pdf/1784595707272-xinaoyanjiuyouxuanhunhexingzhengquantouzijijin2026niandi2jidubaogao.pdf", "https://www.fscinda.com/upload/pdf/1776733370924-xinaoxinnengyuanchanyegupiaoxingzhengquantouzijijin2026niandi1jidubaogao.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "需冯明远完整访谈或更详细投资运作论证，不能因读了两份短季报自动升级。" } ] }, { "id": "B62", "name": "刘格菘", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "基金经理", "currentRole": null, "firm": "广发基金", "focus": "成长制造", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.gffunds.com.cn/jjjl/gpl/201706/t20170616_104474.shtml", "title": "刘格菘 基金经理", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "基金经理" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "有限公开方法样本，不是完整个人体系或投资业绩认证", "现职与资料期角色分别核验" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "o9g4-b62", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "已读两份独立实质材料，补齐有限方法档案及三阶段合成练习；机构报告归因保留。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.gffunds.com.cn/jjgg/dqgg/202510/P020251028324901714324.pdf", "https://www.9fzt.com/detail/fund_005911_2_10708415.html" ], "nextEvidence": "继续补充反面时期及真实执行证据，不将方法样本等同完整方法或业绩认证。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G4-B62-A", "title": "广发双擎升级混合2025年第3季度报告", "date": "2025-10-28", "url": "https://www.gffunds.com.cn/jjgg/dqgg/202510/P020251028324901714324.pdf", "access": "2026-10-09读取；官方PDF文字及第7–8页截图已读；实际阅读范围：PDF第6页经理表；第7–8页§4.4" }, { "id": "O9G4-B62-B", "title": "广发双擎升级混合2025年年度报告", "date": "2026-03-30", "url": "https://www.9fzt.com/detail/fund_005911_2_10708415.html", "access": "2026-10-09读取；九方智投公开原报告全文镜像；相关段落直接阅读；官网PDF检索命中但打开失败，未做字节校验；实际阅读范围：原报告第11–12页经理表、第14页§4.4和§4.5" } ], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "检索广发2025/2026季度报告并打开009314官方产品页；可确认刘格菘履历，但报告正文链接未提取，媒体持仓综述未用作方法证据。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.gffunds.com.cn/funds/?fundcode=009314" ], "nextEvidence": "需科技先锋/双擎升级两期4.4策略正文及可归属分析。" } ] }, { "id": "B63", "name": "郑巍山", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "基金经理；2022年来源为股票投资部副总监", "currentRole": null, "firm": "银河基金", "focus": "半导体、国产化、科技", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.cgf.cn/pc/pc/fund/managerDetail?managerId=580", "title": "银河基金经理页", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "opened text read", "whatVerified": "基金经理；2022年来源为股票投资部副总监" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "缺最新季度报告与组合归因", "未核验底层券商行业统计样本", "当前任职需另行确认" ], "deepResearch": { "atlasFile": "buy_36_70_atlas.json", "profileId": "zheng-weishan", "methodStatus": "historical method sample; not recurring-method certified", "sources": [ { "id": "BX-ZWS-20210910", "title": "投资洞见半导体：如何看待近期半导体板块回调？", "date": "2021-09-10", "url": "https://www.cgf.cn/pc/pc/service/articleView?columnId=5180&i_articleid=60534", "authors": "郑巍山", "access": "2026-10-07官方完整正文读取", "summary": "区分局部存储价格变化与全行业景气，关注产品升级、国产渗透，以及设计公司的成本转嫁能力。" }, { "id": "BX-ZWS-20220609", "title": "山哥请回答·5月报：科技、新能源板块一季报", "date": "2022-06-09", "url": "https://www.cgf.cn/pc/pc/service/articleView?columnId=5180&i_articleid=62879", "authors": "郑巍山（官方问答）", "access": "2026-10-07官方完整正文读取；引用券商统计仅作为本人当时采用的证据，未独立重算", "summary": "以收入、利润和利润率检验行业判断；强调代工涨价不意味着全面涨价，产品竞争力影响设计商转嫁成本。" } ] }, "priority": true, "profileId": "zheng-weishan", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "BX-ZWS-20210910", "title": "投资洞见半导体：如何看待近期半导体板块回调？", "url": "https://www.cgf.cn/pc/pc/service/articleView?columnId=5180&i_articleid=60534", "date": "2021-09-10", "access": "2026-10-07官方完整正文读取" }, { "id": "BX-ZWS-20220609", "title": "山哥请回答·5月报：科技、新能源板块一季报", "url": "https://www.cgf.cn/pc/pc/service/articleView?columnId=5180&i_articleid=62879", "date": "2022-06-09", "access": "2026-10-07官方完整正文读取；引用券商统计仅作为本人当时采用的证据，未独立重算" } ] }, { "id": "B64", "name": "陈颖", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "金鹰基金首席投资官、成长投资部总经理、基金经理兼投资经理（2026-09-24招募说明书；内容截止2026-08-31）", "currentRole": "总经理助理、首席投资官、成长投资部总经理、基金经理兼投资经理（官网产品页2026-10-07访问）", "firm": "金鹰基金", "focus": "科技", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.gefund.com.cn/main/jjcp/product/019093/detail.html", "title": "金鹰科技创新股票C（019093）官方产品页—基金经理陈颖", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official page directly opened; full manager biography read", "whatVerified": "陈颖为金鹰科技创新股票基金经理；总经理助理、首席投资官、成长投资部总经理、基金经理兼投资经理。中山大学工商管理硕士，曾任广东电信规划设计项目经理、惠普技术顾问、戴尔高级系统顾问、深圳汉鑫研究总监及基金经理，2012年9月加入金鹰基金；据此消歧为金鹰科技投资背景的陈颖。" }, { "url": "https://www.gefund.com.cn/upload/20260924/20260924094317410.pdf", "title": "金鹰科技创新股票型证券投资基金招募说明书（更新）", "date": "2026-09-24", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official PDF directly opened; manager biography and investment committee sections read", "whatVerified": "PDF第12–13页陈颖履历与官方产品页一致；首席投资官、成长投资部总经理、基金经理兼投资经理，投资决策委员会名单亦列总经理助理。金鹰科技创新基金经理自2021-05-18起。说明书内容截止2026-08-31，不能当作报告后任职变更证明。" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "有限公开方法样本，不是完整个人体系或投资业绩认证", "现职与资料期角色分别核验" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "o9g4-b64", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "已读两份独立实质材料，补齐有限方法档案及三阶段合成练习；机构报告归因保留。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H2_AN202503311649465138_1.pdf", "https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H2_AN202603311820899764_1.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "继续补充反面时期及真实执行证据，不将方法样本等同完整方法或业绩认证。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G4-B64-A", "title": "金鹰科技创新股票2024年年度报告", "date": "2025-03-31", "url": "https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H2_AN202503311649465138_1.pdf", "access": "2026-10-09读取；东方财富公开原报告PDF镜像文本已读；截图超时，未与官网副本逐字节校验；实际阅读范围：印刷第13页经理表、第15–16页§4.4和§4.5" }, { "id": "O9G4-B64-B", "title": "金鹰科技创新股票2025年年度报告", "date": "2026-03-31", "url": "https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H2_AN202603311820899764_1.pdf", "access": "2026-10-09读取；东方财富公开原报告PDF镜像文本已读；截图超时，未与官网副本逐字节校验；实际阅读范围：印刷第13页经理表、第16–17页§4.4和§4.5" } ], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "打开金鹰科技创新001167官方产品页；检索命中2026Q1/Q2报告目录，但页面提取未给报告PDF直链，既有招募书仅身份不能替代研究。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.gefund.com.cn/main/jjcp/product/001167/detail.html" ], "nextEvidence": "取得两期定期报告的投资策略正文或陈颖完整访谈，保持金鹰技术背景消歧。" } ] }, { "id": "B65", "name": "周克平", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "基金经理（2021年材料）", "currentRole": "2025-03-06已卸任华夏创新未来基金经理；2026-10-09后续职务未核验", "firm": "华夏基金", "focus": "科技成长", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://edu.chinaamc.com/c/2021-12-28/513383.shtml", "title": "为什么科技投资进入了基本面投资时代", "date": "2021-12-28", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "基金经理（2021年材料）" }, { "url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-04-22/1223199033.PDF", "title": "华夏创新未来2025年第1季度报告", "date": "2025-04-22", "accessed": "2026-10-09", "accessLevel": "官方披露PDF §4.1经理表直接阅读", "whatVerified": "印刷第5页列周克平于2025-03-06离任；不推断后续职位" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "有限公开方法样本，不是完整个人体系或投资业绩认证", "现职与资料期角色分别核验" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "o9g4-b65", "roleNote": "历史华夏方法样本，不表述为当前在管经理。", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "已读两份独立实质材料，补齐有限方法档案及三阶段合成练习；只使用可归属本人回答。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://edu.chinaamc.com/c/2021-12-28/513383.shtml", "https://www.chnfund.com/article/AR2022061116242760113822", "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-04-22/1223199033.PDF" ], "nextEvidence": "继续补充反面时期及真实执行证据，不将方法样本等同完整方法或业绩认证。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G4-B65-A", "title": "为什么科技投资进入了基本面投资时代", "date": "2021-12-28", "url": "https://edu.chinaamc.com/c/2021-12-28/513383.shtml", "access": "2026-10-09读取；官方刊载访谈正文已读；日期取URL刊载路径，实际访谈发生日未核；实际阅读范围：投资框架问答，四类资产、现金流、DCF、组合管理" }, { "id": "O9G4-B65-B", "title": "九大头部基金经理最新发声", "date": "2022-06-11", "url": "https://www.chnfund.com/article/AR2022061116242760113822", "access": "2026-10-09读取；公开原始材料正文已读；实际阅读范围：周克平回答科创板结构因素、制度流动性、盈利估值三问" } ], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "取得并阅读2021年华夏官网完整问答，属于一份实质方法材料；没有凑足第二份独立材料，维持原状态。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://edu.chinaamc.com/c/2021-12-28/513383.shtml" ], "nextEvidence": "第二份本人访谈/署名文或明确经理归属的基金报告投资分析正文；另查2025年后任职变化。" } ] }, { "id": "B66", "name": "黄兴亮", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "基金经理（历史材料）", "currentRole": null, "firm": "万家基金", "focus": "科技、半导体", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.wjasset.com/contents/2021/9/1-e7e01aaf6a844e10922a3a0fc84e4da1.html", "title": "全球科技创新领域涌现投资机会", "date": "2021-09-01", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "基金经理（历史材料）" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开材料样本不认证完整个人方法、当前组合或业绩", "未独立确认资料期以后当前职务" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "r2b3-b66", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B3-B66C", "title": 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"https://www.wjasset.com/upload/pdf/1776681225527-wjqqczyncyqhhxzqtzjj%28QDII%292026nd1jdbg.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "补充真实决策时点、完整仓位和独立结果审计；不由方法样本推断业绩或现职。" } }, { "id": "B67", "name": "金梓才", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "副总经理、权益投资总监、基金经理（2026招募书）", "currentRole": null, "firm": "财通基金", "focus": "TMT与产业轮动", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://big5.sse.com.cn/site/cht/www.sse.com.cn/disclosure/fund/announcement/c/new/2026-07-03/501026_20260703_Y3DK.pdf", "title": "财通多策略福享招募说明书", "date": "2026-07-03", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "副总经理、权益投资总监、基金经理（2026招募书）" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "有限公开方法样本，不是完整个人体系或投资业绩认证", "现职与资料期角色分别核验" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "o9g4-b67", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "已读两份独立实质材料，补齐有限方法档案及三阶段合成练习；机构报告归因保留。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-03-29/1222955470.PDF", 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"name": "陆彬", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "副总经理（2023任命公告）", "currentRole": null, "firm": "汇丰晋信", "focus": "成长与周期", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.assetmanagement.hsbc.com.hk/api/v1/download/document/cne100002425/hk/zh/announcement%20of%20change%20of%20senior%20management%202023-03-01", "title": "高管变更公告", "date": "2023-03-01", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "副总经理（2023任命公告）" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未审计真实完整决策与结果", "方法样本不代表个人全部观点" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "o9g5-b68", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "两份独立实质材料已核并补入有限方法档案、三阶段合成练习和独立答案。基金报告作者为管理人；经理表只证明报告期任职，不证明本人独著或独立完成所有决策。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-03-17/1216142063.PDF", "https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H2_AN202507211712818307_1.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "补充其他时期实质材料和真实决策复盘；当前职务需独立现职来源，不由历史报告推断。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G5-B68A", "title": "汇丰晋信低碳先锋2022年年度报告", "date": 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"checkedUrls": [ "https://www.ccfund.com.cn/main/jjcp/cache/004666.shtml" ], "nextEvidence": "定位尤国梁报告期任职的两份基金报告§4.4实质运作评论。" } ] }, { "id": "B70", "name": "李巍", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "基金经理", "currentRole": null, "firm": "广发基金", "focus": "价值成长", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.gffunds.com.cn/jjjl/gpl/201411/t20141125_40630.shtml", "title": "李巍 基金经理", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "accessLevel": "official indexed excerpt only", "whatVerified": "基金经理" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开材料样本不认证完整个人方法、当前组合或业绩", "未独立确认资料期以后当前职务" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "r2b3-b70", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B3-B70A", "title": "李巍：在不确定的世界寻找成长", "date": "2020-07-06", "url": "https://www.gffunds.com.cn/gywm/4/202007/t20200706_358867.shtml", "access": "2026-10-08读取；官方网页正文已通过网页检索读取（本地HTTP405）。读取现金流、PEG和管理层投资段落。" }, { "id": "R2B3-B70B", "title": "李巍：大变局时代，如何安放我们的投资框架", "date": "2022-09-13", "url": 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"gaps": [ "机构及共同管理观点不能归为傅鹏博独著", "未检验实际交易级归因或长期预测结果" ], "coverageClass": "methodology-with-direct-AI-commentary", "careerStatus": "role-at-source-only", "priority": false, "profileId": "fu-foresight", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8BCS09", "title": "睿远成长价值混合2025年中期报告", "url": "https://www.foresightfund.com/upload/pdf/1756255838958-ruiyuanchengzhangjiazhihunhexingzhengquantouzijijin2025nianzhongqibaogao.pdf", "date": "2025-08-27", "access": "官方70页PDF；印刷pp12–14 §4.4–4.5已读，封面送出日期已核；不是完整归因审计。" }, { "id": "O8BCS10", "title": "睿远成长价值混合2025年年度报告", "url": "https://www.foresightfund.com/upload/pdf/1774572963264-ruiyuanchengzhangjiazhihunhexingzhengquantouzijijin2025nianniandubaogao.pdf", "date": "2026-03-27", "access": "官方82页PDF；印刷pp11–12经理表和pp13–14 §4.4.1已读；集中度变化不自动等同主动买入。" } ], "researchUpdateType": "new primary-material research" }, { "id": "B72", "name": "朱少醒", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "富国天惠基金经理（2012报道时期）", "currentRole": null, "firm": "富国基金", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 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"2026-10-08", "whatVerified": "官网投资团队正文与导航列姓名和职务；urllib直接读取，非搜索摘要", "accessLevel": "official body read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "不复制本人交易规则为普适建议", "未验证完整持仓及交易效果" ], "discoverySources": [ { "url": "https://www.gyasset.com/p", "title": "高毅资产官网", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "搜索命中姓名；正文多次超时，不能算完成身份核验" } ], "coverageClass": "methodology", "careerStatus": "current-role-verified", "priority": false, "profileId": "feng-gaoyi", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8BCS05", "title": "高毅资产冯柳再谈投资方法：寻找共识 依靠常识 接受自己的不完美", "url": "https://www.gyasset.com/p/site/investTeamNewsArticle?id=220&type=9", "date": "2019-06-17", "access": "官方转载2019采访：选股流程、风险定价、高仓位调仓及长期客户资金段已读。" }, { "id": "O8BCS06", "title": "最新专访：如果你读懂了冯柳，就知道“抄作业”没有用", "url": "https://www.gyasset.com/p/site/investTeamNewsArticle?id=251&type=9", "date": "2020-05-26", "access": "官方转载采访：成长/价值、加减仓机制、公开持仓限制问答已读；不据采访认证实际风控效果。" } ], "researchUpdateType": "new primary-material research" }, { "id": "B80", "name": "刘彦春", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "新兴成长基金经理、公司副总经理（2025报告时期）", "currentRole": null, "firm": "景顺长城基金", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.igwfmc.com/upload/dqgg/20260327/2026-03-27%E6%99%AF%E9%A1%BA%E9%95%BF%E5%9F%8E%E6%96%B0%E5%85%B4%E6%88%90%E9%95%BF%E6%B7%B7%E5%90%88%E5%9E%8B%E8%AF%81%E5%88%B8%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%912025%E5%B9%B4%E5%B9%B4%E5%BA%A6%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A.pdf", "title": "景顺长城新兴成长混合2025年年度报告", "date": "2026-03-27", "accessed": "2026-10-08", "whatVerified": "官方报告基金经理表，限定报告时期身份", "accessLevel": "official PDF selected sections read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未核验2026年10月现任管理职务", "复苏时间与因果仍须后续检验" ], "discoverySources": [ { "url": "https://www.igwfmc.com/main/jjcp/product/260108/detail.html", "title": "基金产品页", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "正文超时；搜索摘要显示姓名及Wind来源" } ], "coverageClass": "methodology", "careerStatus": "role-at-source-only", "priority": false, "profileId": "liu-igw", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8BCS07", "title": "景顺长城新兴成长混合2025年第2季度报告", "url": "https://www.igwfmc.com/upload/dqgg/20250721/2025-07-21%E6%99%AF%E9%A1%BA%E9%95%BF%E5%9F%8E%E6%96%B0%E5%85%B4%E6%88%90%E9%95%BF%E6%B7%B7%E5%90%88%E5%9E%8B%E8%AF%81%E5%88%B8%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%912025%E5%B9%B4%E7%AC%AC2%E5%AD%A3%E5%BA%A6%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A.pdf", "date": "2025-07-21", "access": "官方12页PDF；印刷pp5–7的经理表与§4.4已读，未审计全报告。" }, { "id": "O8BCS08", "title": "景顺长城新兴成长混合2025年年度报告", "url": "https://www.igwfmc.com/upload/dqgg/20260327/2026-03-27%E6%99%AF%E9%A1%BA%E9%95%BF%E5%9F%8E%E6%96%B0%E5%85%B4%E6%88%90%E9%95%BF%E6%B7%B7%E5%90%88%E5%9E%8B%E8%AF%81%E5%88%B8%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%912025%E5%B9%B4%E5%B9%B4%E5%BA%A6%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A.pdf", "date": "2026-03-27", "access": "官方68页PDF；印刷p10经理表及pp13–14 §4.4–4.5已读；2026展望不作已兑现事实。" } ], "researchUpdateType": "new primary-material research" }, { "id": "B81", "name": "Warren Buffett", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "CEO（2024年度信时期）", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Berkshire Hathaway", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2024ltr.pdf", "title": "2024 shareholder letter", "date": "2025-02-22", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "作者身份、资本配置与经营利润观点", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "2026现任职务未核验；不得沿用CEO为当前身份", "方法论候选，非AI直接覆盖" ], "research": { "thesis": "区分经营盈利与持股市值波动，以可持续资本回报和管理者诚信评价企业。", "assumptions": [ "高回报的增量投资机会能延续", "管理者激励与股东一致" ], "counterevidence": [ "作者承认收购和识人错误；纺织业务虽便宜仍持续毁值", "行业变迁可使历史优势失效" ], "skill": "把利润波动拆成经营、资本配置及估值变化；记录纠错触发条件。", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2024ltr.pdf", "title": "2024 shareholder letter", "date": "2025-02-22", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "正文已读：错误纠正、Forest River激励、经营利润" }, { "url": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2023ltr.pdf", "title": "2023 shareholder letter", "date": "2024-02-24", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "正文已读：增量资本回报、GAAP与经营利润、Munger" } ], "attributedClaims": [ { "date": "2024-02-24", "source": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2023ltr.pdf", "claim": "经营盈利需与持股未实现资本利得分开。" }, { "date": "2024-02-24", "source": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2023ltr.pdf", "claim": "重视未来能以高回报部署增量资本的企业。" }, { "date": "2025-02-22", "source": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2024ltr.pdf", "claim": "资本配置与识人错误无法完全避免，但不能延误纠正。" } ] }, "coverageClass": "methodology", "careerStatus": "role-at-source-only", "priority": false, "profileId": "buffett-berkshire", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "B71D01", "title": "Berkshire Hathaway 2023 Shareholder Letter", "url": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2023ltr.pdf", "date": "2024-02-24", "access": "官方PDF，2026-10-07读取P0–P3实质正文。" }, { "id": "B71D02", "title": "Berkshire Hathaway 2024 Shareholder Letter", "url": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2024ltr.pdf", "date": "2025-02-22", "access": "官方PDF，2026-10-07读取P0–P4实质正文。" } ] }, { "id": "B82", "name": "Charlie Munger", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "历史投资伙伴（已故）", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Berkshire Hathaway", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2023ltr.pdf", "title": "2023 shareholder letter", "date": "2024-02-24", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Buffett确认Munger于2023-11-28去世；不得列为当前分析师", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开材料样本不认证完整个人方法、当前组合或业绩" ], "careerStatus": "deceased", "coverageClass": "methodology", "priority": false, "profileId": "r2b3-b82", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B3-B82B", "title": "Wesco Financial Corporation 2009 shareholder letter", "date": "2010-02-26", "url": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/wesco/cm2009.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08读取；官方正文/PDF文本已取得；本次实际阅读范围：Charles T. Munger署名信，印刷页1–7" }, { "id": "R2B3-B82A", "title": "Vice Chairman’s Thoughts — Past and Future（2014年度股东信附文）", "date": "2014", "url": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2014ltr.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08读取；官方正文/PDF文本已取得；本次实际阅读范围：仅Munger署名附文印刷页39–43；2014为财年，2015年发布，不把Buffett正文归给Munger" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已取得两份有日期的实质公开材料，建立有限方法样本、三阶段合成练习及独立答案。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2014ltr.pdf", "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/wesco/cm2009.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "补充真实决策时点、完整仓位和独立结果审计；不由方法样本推断业绩或现职。" } }, { "id": "B83", "name": "Philip Fisher", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "历史投资作者", "currentRole": null, "firm": null, "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/resource-library/investing-books/philip-fisher", "title": "Books by Philip Fisher", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "官方正文已核身份；不将简介计入实质研究材料", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未审计真实完整决策与结果", "方法样本不代表个人全部观点" ], "careerStatus": "historical", "coverageClass": "methodology", "priority": false, "profileId": "o9g5-b83", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "两份独立实质材料已核并补入有限方法档案、三阶段合成练习和独立答案。两本不同原著的授权节选，保留原著与再版日期，不将目录或Ken Fisher序言计入。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.abebooks.co.uk/9780471119289/Common-Stocks-Uncommon-Profits-Writings-0471119288/plp", "https://www.amazon.com/Paths-Wealth-Through-Common-Stocks/dp/0470139498" ], "nextEvidence": "补充可访问的完整原著/官方原始访谈或音频，对照检验方法边界；保持历史方法对象。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G5-B83A", "title": "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits：Clues from the Past 授权节选", "date": "1996", "url": "https://www.abebooks.co.uk/9780471119289/Common-Stocks-Uncommon-Profits-Writings-0471119288/plp", "access": "2026-10-09读取；AbeBooks呈现出版社授权原著节选，页面明确Reprinted by permission；未读全书；不把Ken Fisher序言归于Philip" }, { "id": "O9G5-B83B", "title": "Paths to Wealth Through Common Stocks：Chapter One 授权节选", "date": "2007", "url": "https://www.amazon.com/Paths-Wealth-Through-Common-Stocks/dp/0470139498", "access": "2026-10-09读取；Amazon展示Wiley授权原著节选，明确Reprinted by permission；不是读全书或读评论；Wiley直接样章PDF403" } ], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "读取Fisher Investments官方Philip Fisher书目页；书籍介绍不等于原书实质论证。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/resource-library/investing-books/philip-fisher" ], "nextEvidence": "两份有出处的本人原著章节/授权全文；保持历史研究对象，不写现任。" } ] }, { "id": "B84", "name": "Peter Lynch", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "历史Magellan基金经理", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Fidelity Investments", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/active-investor/trading-guide-managing-investment-risks-and-opportunities", "title": "Trading guide", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "官方正文确认曾管理Magellan；不是现任行业分析师", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未审计真实完整决策与结果", "方法样本不代表个人全部观点" ], "careerStatus": "historical", "coverageClass": "methodology", "priority": false, "profileId": "o9g5-b84", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "两份独立实质材料已核并补入有限方法档案、三阶段合成练习和独立答案。PBS历史保存文本重读并以公开镜像核对；独立演讲主体第三方转录，主办方校正日期，未含Q&A。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/betting/pros/lynch.html", "https://brewbooks.blog/2021/02/22/transcript-of-peter-lynch-8-october-1994-lecture-to-the-national-press-club/", "https://www.rbcpa.com/commentary-archive/pbs-interview-with-peter-lynch/", "https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/betting/etal/tapes.html", "https://www.press.org/newsroom/past-npc-president-klein-remembers-nelson-mandelas-visit-club" ], "nextEvidence": "补充可访问的完整原著/官方原始访谈或音频，对照检验方法边界；保持历史方法对象。" }, "methodSources": [ { "id": "O9G5-B84A", "title": "PBS FRONTLINE：Interview with Peter Lynch", "date": "1997-01-14", "url": "https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/betting/pros/lynch.html", "access": "2026-10-09读取；重读2026-10-08已保存PBS完整采访文本；10月9日原网址403，以公开RBCPA转载交叉核对；不是本日重新抓取官网成功" }, { "id": "O9G5-B84B", "title": "Peter Lynch National Press Club 演讲主体转录", "date": "1994-10-07", "url": "https://brewbooks.blog/2021/02/22/transcript-of-peter-lynch-8-october-1994-lecture-to-the-national-press-club/", "access": "2026-10-09读取；公开第三方个人转录，已读演讲主体；不含后续Q&A，未逐秒核音频；原题10/8与NPC官方回顾10/7冲突，采用主办方日期" } ], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "成功取得PBS Frontline完整历史访谈文本，读到Magellan与Chrysler等问答；目前只有一份独立实质访谈。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/betting/pros/lynch.html" ], "nextEvidence": "第二份Fidelity官方本人文章或独立主办方演讲全文，并核对日期。" } ] }, { "id": "B85", "name": "Howard Marks", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Memo author / credit investor", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Oaktree Capital Management", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/sea-change", "title": "Sea Change", "date": "2022-12-13", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "官方署名投资备忘录", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "方法论候选，非AI直接覆盖", "现任头衔未单独核验" ], "research": { "thesis": "利率水平改变资产估值与融资条件；信用投资应比较承诺收益与预期违约损失。", "assumptions": [ "违约概率和回收率能够形成合理区间", "过去低利率红利不能机械外推" ], "counterevidence": [ "利差是市场意见，并非真实违约率", "资金涌入和放松契约可能侵蚀风险补偿" ], "skill": "以无风险利率＋利差−预期损失拆解收益；把行业增长与融资红利分开。", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/sea-change", "title": "Sea Change", "date": "2022-12-13", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "实质正文已读：利率尾风、融资环境改变" }, { "url": "https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/gimme-credit", "title": "Gimme Credit", "date": "2025-03-06", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "实质正文已读：利差、违约概率×损失率、收益回落" } ] }, "coverageClass": "methodology", "careerStatus": "role-at-source-only", "priority": false, "profileId": "marks-oaktree", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "D05", "title": "On Bubble Watch", "url": "https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/on-bubble-watch", "date": "2025-01-07", "access": "作者官方备忘录；核查价格/心理讨论，不代表科技股持仓建议。" }, { "id": "D06", "title": "The Calculus of Value", "url": "https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-calculus-of-value", "date": "2025-08-13", "access": "官方备忘录；核查Value及市场心理段落，不审计历史收益。" } ] }, { "id": "B86", "name": "Seth Klarman", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Baupost CEO及组合经理（2025访谈时）", "currentRole": "CEO & Portfolio Manager", "firm": "Baupost", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.baupost.com/Team/Seth-A-Klarman", "title": "Seth A. Klarman", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "官方人物页", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份公开材料仅支持有限方法样本；尚缺私人完整模型、预测复盘及跨时期方法检验。" ], "coverageClass": "methodology", "careerStatus": "current-role-verified", "priority": false, "profileId": "o9g6-seth-klarman", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "已读两份独立具名实质材料，补入有限方法样本及三阶段合成练习；不等于长期方法认证。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.bishoprockcap.com/assets/library/seth-klarman/July%202025%20Seth%20Klarman%20on%20finding%20value%20and%20maintaining%20discipline%20(transcript)", "https://www.bishoprockcap.com/assets/library/seth-klarman/August%202025%20Seth%20Klarman%20-%20Contrarian%20Investing,%20Discipline,%20and%20Building%20Baupost%20(transcript)" ], "nextEvidence": "两份公开材料仅支持有限方法样本；尚缺私人完整模型、预测复盘及跨时期方法检验。" }, "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "O9G6-KLGS25", "url": "https://www.bishoprockcap.com/assets/library/seth-klarman/July%202025%20Seth%20Klarman%20on%20finding%20value%20and%20maintaining%20discipline%20(transcript)", "title": "Seth Klarman — Goldman Sachs Talks", "date": "2025-05-27", "locator": "02:13–04:45", "accessLevel": "公开原始访谈/电话会转录镜像；已读具名实质段落，未听原录音或与官方文件逐字节核对；可能存在转录错误。 此镜像标有自动转录置信度，未验证每个词；仅作有限样本。" }, { "sourceId": "O9G6-KLCO25", "url": "https://www.bishoprockcap.com/assets/library/seth-klarman/August%202025%20Seth%20Klarman%20-%20Contrarian%20Investing,%20Discipline,%20and%20Building%20Baupost%20(transcript)", "title": "Seth Klarman — Value Investing with Legends", "date": "2025-08-01", "locator": "04:22–06:47", "accessLevel": "公开原始访谈/电话会转录镜像；已读具名实质段落，未听原录音或与官方文件逐字节核对；可能存在转录错误。 此镜像标有自动转录置信度，未验证每个词；仅作有限样本。" } ], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "尝试Goldman Sachs官方逐字稿PDF，虽HTTP成功但正文只有1字符，未视为阅读成功。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.goldmansachs.com/pdfs/insights/goldman-sachs-talks/seth-klarman/transcript.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "可读的官方访谈逐字稿和第二份有日期本人署名实质论证；官网简介不足。" } ] }, { "id": "B87", "name": "Joel Greenblatt", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Managing Principal and Co-CIO", "currentRole": "Managing Principal and Co-CIO", "firm": "Gotham Asset Management", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.gothamfunds.com/principals", "title": "Gotham Principals", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "官方人物页", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开材料样本不认证完整个人方法、当前组合或业绩", "未独立确认资料期以后当前职务" ], "coverageClass": "methodology", "careerStatus": "current-role-verified", "priority": false, "profileId": "r2b3-b87", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B3-B87A", "title": "Evolution of a Manager — Value Investor Insight", "date": "2014-03-31", "url": "https://www.gothamfunds.com/Download.aspx?ID=2e2c42b7-ba7a-44cc-872f-b5d5d857e7f7&Inline=1", "access": "2026-10-08读取；通过网页检索读取官方托管获授权转载PDF两页；本地HTTP403。" }, { "id": "R2B3-B87B", "title": "A Value Investor Defends Value Investing (Despite Its Recent Track Record)", "date": "2019-10-06", "url": "https://www.gothamfunds.com/Download.aspx?ID=4745663f-08f5-43ec-ae0c-f1e5dba7a775&Inline=1", "access": "2026-10-08读取；通过网页检索读取官方托管获授权转载PDF两页；本地HTTP403。" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已取得两份有日期的实质公开材料，建立有限方法样本、三阶段合成练习及独立答案。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.gothamfunds.com/Download.aspx?ID=2e2c42b7-ba7a-44cc-872f-b5d5d857e7f7&Inline=1", "https://www.gothamfunds.com/Download.aspx?ID=4745663f-08f5-43ec-ae0c-f1e5dba7a775&Inline=1" ], "nextEvidence": "补充真实决策时点、完整仓位和独立结果审计；不由方法样本推断业绩或现职。" } }, { "id": "B88", "name": "Michael Mauboussin", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Head of Consilient Research", "currentRole": "Head of Consilient Research", "firm": "Morgan Stanley Investment Management / Counterpoint Global", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.michaelmauboussin.com/books", "title": "Michael J. Mauboussin", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "官方正文已核身份；不将简介计入实质研究材料", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "没有本人或基金当时交易、持仓与预测命中率审计", "当前PDF存在后续版权/合规页脚，正文日期按封面；未确认全部版本差异", "历史参照类底层数据、因果关系和公司当前财务未独立重算" ], "coverageClass": "methodology", "careerStatus": "current-role-verified", "priority": false, "profileId": "mauboussin-counterpoint", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "B3D1", "title": "Market-Expected Return on Investment: Bridging Accounting and Valuation", "url": "https://www.morganstanley.com/content/dam/im/assets/publication/thought-leadership/consilient-observer/article_marketexpectedreturnoninvestment_en.pdf", "date": "2021-04-14", "access": "官方23页PDF；核查封面、pp2–5、8及15；原文日期2021-04-14，当前PDF页脚©2025不作为新文章日期。非全报告数字/底层数据审计。" }, { "id": "B3D2", "title": "ROIC and the Investment Process: ROICs, How They Change, and Shareholder Returns", "url": "https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_roicandtheinvestmentprocess.pdf", "date": "2023-06-06", "access": "官方31页PDF；核查pp1–3、8–10；原文日期2023-06-06，当前PDF页脚©2024不作为新文章日期。未复制或独立核验FactSet底层数据。" }, { "id": "B3D3", "title": "Bayes and Base Rates 2.0: How History Can Guide Our Assessment of the Future", "url": "https://www.morganstanley.com/content/dam/im/assets/publication/thought-leadership/consilient-observer/article_bayesandbaserates2_ltr.pdf", "date": "2026-05-13", "access": "官方10页PDF与官方摘要；核查pp1–6。仅方法层面转述，不把文中媒体引用的OpenAI或Anthropic数字作为独立核实的公司财务。" } ], "researchUpdateType": "existing evidence alignment only; no new source inspection" }, { "id": "B89", "name": "Bill Miller", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "署名投资经理（2021资料时期）", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Miller Value Partners", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://millervalue.com/bill-miller-2q-2021-market-letter/", "title": "Bill Miller 2Q 2021 Market Letter", "date": "2021-07-09", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "官方正文已核身份；不将简介计入实质研究材料", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开材料样本不认证完整个人方法、当前组合或业绩", "未独立确认资料期以后当前职务" ], "coverageClass": "methodology", "careerStatus": "role-at-source-only", "priority": false, "profileId": "r2b3-b89", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B3-B89A", "title": "Bill Miller 2Q 2021 Market Letter", "date": "2021-07-09", "url": "https://millervalue.com/bill-miller-2q-2021-market-letter/", "access": "2026-10-08读取；通过网页检索读取本人市场信全文；本地HTTP403。" }, { "id": "R2B3-B89B", "title": "Bill Miller’s Market Observations — March 2022", "date": "2022-03-22", "url": "https://millervalue.com/bill-millers-market-observations-march-2022/", "access": "2026-10-08读取；通过网页检索读取本人市场观察全文；本地HTTP403。" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已取得两份有日期的实质公开材料，建立有限方法样本、三阶段合成练习及独立答案。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://millervalue.com/bill-miller-2q-2021-market-letter/", "https://millervalue.com/bill-millers-market-observations-march-2022/" ], "nextEvidence": "补充真实决策时点、完整仓位和独立结果审计；不由方法样本推断业绩或现职。" } }, { "id": "B90", "name": "Bill Nygren", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Partner and Co-CIO-U.S.", "currentRole": "Partner and Co-CIO-U.S.", "firm": "Harris | Oakmark", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://oakmark.com/who-we-are/our-team/bill-nygren/", "title": "William C. Nygren", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "官方人物页；与旧资料的 CIO 称谓有差异，以当前页面为准", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "方法论＋AI周期挑战；不是半导体专职分析师" ], "research": { "thesis": "识别共识中的重大错误，量化估值影响；AI硬件盈利能否持续与技术是否重要是两个问题。", "assumptions": [ "未来现金流可估算到足够的安全边际", "周期盈利须与长期盈利分开" ], "counterevidence": [ "2026信承认AI龙头盈利强，不能断言复制互联网泡沫", "未持AI硬件可造成显著相对落后" ], "skill": "为每项非共识观点列证据、估值影响和新信息触发器；压力测试高利润持续期。", "sources": [ { "url": "https://oakmark.com/news-insights/bill-nygren-market-commentary-4q22/", "title": "4Q22 Market Commentary", "date": "2022-Q4", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "本人Q&A正文已读：分析师任务、跨行业机会成本" }, { "url": "https://oakmark.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2026/07/The-discipline-to-stay-boring_U.S.-equity-market-commentary_2Q26_vF.pdf", "title": "The discipline to stay boring", "date": "2026-06-30", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "本人签名正文已读：AI硬件周期、永久损失、安全边际" } ], "attributedClaims": [ { "date": "2022-Q4", "source": "https://oakmark.com/news-insights/bill-nygren-market-commentary-4q22/", "claim": "分析师应识别共识的重大错误并计算估值影响。" }, { "date": "2026-06-30", "source": "https://oakmark.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2026/07/The-discipline-to-stay-boring_U.S.-equity-market-commentary_2Q26_vF.pdf", "claim": "未配置AI硬件源于无法确认安全边际，而非断言其严重高估。" }, { "date": "2026-06-30", "source": "https://oakmark.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2026/07/The-discipline-to-stay-boring_U.S.-equity-market-commentary_2Q26_vF.pdf", "claim": "风险评估应看论点错误使企业价值低于买价的概率，而非相对指数权重偏离。" } ] }, "coverageClass": "methodology-with-direct-AI-commentary", "careerStatus": "current-role-verified", "priority": false, "profileId": "nygren-oakmark", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "B71D03", "title": "Bill Nygren Market Commentary | 4Q22", "url": "https://oakmark.com/news-insights/bill-nygren-market-commentary-4q22/", "date": "2022-Q4", "access": "本人访谈由雇主发布，2026-10-07读取分析师角色等实质段落。精确日未核，日期为季度标签。" }, { "id": "B71D04", "title": "The discipline to stay boring | U.S. equity market commentary 2Q 2026", "url": "https://oakmark.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2026/07/The-discipline-to-stay-boring_U.S.-equity-market-commentary_2Q26_vF.pdf", "date": "2026-06-30", "access": "本人签名官方PDF，2026-10-07读取P0–P3全文论证。" } ] }, { "id": "B91", "name": "Stanley Druckenmiller", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "管理自有资本的家族办公室投资人", "currentRole": "管理自有资本的家族办公室投资人", "firm": "Duquesne Family Office", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/videos/hard-lessons/duquesne-stan-druckenmiller-iliana-bouzali", "title": "Hard Lessons: Stan Druckenmiller", "date": "2026-01-30", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "官方正文已核身份；不将简介计入实质研究材料", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "2021年仅主办方精选引语，缺完整逐字稿", "未核查完整组合及预测命中率" ], "research": { "thesis": "寻找基本面与市场认知即将发生的变化，并依靠团队专家验证细分领域。", "assumptions": [ "团队领域判断可靠", "变化尚未被市场完全反映" ], "counterevidence": [ "AI热度可与长期机会并存", "年度无亏损掩盖年内显著回撤" ], "skill": "将专家事实判断、投资者定位和潜在重估催化剂分开。", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/videos/hard-lessons/duquesne-stan-druckenmiller-iliana-bouzali", "title": "Hard Lessons", "date": "2026-01-30", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "正文已读：Teva转型、专家团队、年内回撤" } ] }, "coverageClass": "methodology", "careerStatus": "current-role-verified", "priority": false, "profileId": "druckenmiller-duquesne", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2B3-B91A", "title": "Talks at GS: Stanley Druckenmiller", "date": "2021-02-03", "url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/talks-at-gs/stanley-druckenmiller.html", "access": "2026-10-08读取；官方正文/PDF文本已取得；本次实际阅读范围：网页精选引语正文；活动日2021-01-21，发布2021-02-03；未观看完整视频" }, { "id": "D07", "title": "Hard Lessons E4: Stan Druckenmiller — Invest, Then Investigate", "date": "2026-02-27", "url": "https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/videos/hard-lessons", "access": "节目官方逐字稿E4；一份访谈，回忆不是当年的独立证据，不证明当前持仓。" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已取得两份有日期的实质公开材料，建立有限方法样本、三阶段合成练习及独立答案。2021年材料仅主办方实质精选引语，保留未读完整访谈限制；复用已有档案。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/talks-at-gs/stanley-druckenmiller.html", "https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/videos/hard-lessons" ], "nextEvidence": "补充真实决策时点、完整仓位和独立结果审计；不由方法样本推断业绩或现职。" } }, { "id": "B92", "name": "David Tepper", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Appaloosa管理人（2010/2018访谈时）；不据历史材料更新现职", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Appaloosa Management", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.cmu.edu/sites/default/files/2025-05/bio-tepper-david.pdf", "title": "CMU David Tepper biography", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "官方正文已核身份；不将简介计入实质研究材料", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份公开材料仅支持有限方法样本；尚缺私人完整模型、预测复盘及跨时期方法检验。" ], "coverageClass": "methodology", "careerStatus": "role-at-source-only", "priority": false, "profileId": "o9g6-david-tepper", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "已读两份独立具名实质材料，补入有限方法样本及三阶段合成练习；不等于长期方法认证。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.bishoprockcap.com/assets/library/david-tepper/2010,%20September%20CNBC%20Transcript%20CNBC's%20'Squawk%20Box'%20Sits%20Down%20with%20Appaloosa%20Management%20President%20&%20Founder%20David%20Tepper.pdf", "https://www.bishoprockcap.com/assets/library/david-tepper/2018,%20September%20CNBC%20Exclusive%20CNBC%20Transcript%20Appaloosa%20Management's%20David%20Tepper%20Speaks%20with%20CNBC's%20Scott%20Wapner%20(live.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "两份公开材料仅支持有限方法样本；尚缺私人完整模型、预测复盘及跨时期方法检验。" }, "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "O9G6-TEP10", "url": "https://www.bishoprockcap.com/assets/library/david-tepper/2010,%20September%20CNBC%20Transcript%20CNBC's%20'Squawk%20Box'%20Sits%20Down%20with%20Appaloosa%20Management%20President%20&%20Founder%20David%20Tepper.pdf", "title": "CNBC Squawk Box — David Tepper excerpts", "date": "2010-09-24", "locator": "pp.1,3；CNBC发布的unofficial transcript excerpts之公开镜像", "accessLevel": "公开原始访谈/电话会转录镜像；已读具名实质段落，未听原录音或与官方文件逐字节核对；可能存在转录错误。 2010为节目方选摘，2018为unofficial transcript；不冒充原站全文字节核验。" }, { "sourceId": "O9G6-TEP18", "url": "https://www.bishoprockcap.com/assets/library/david-tepper/2018,%20September%20CNBC%20Exclusive%20CNBC%20Transcript%20Appaloosa%20Management's%20David%20Tepper%20Speaks%20with%20CNBC's%20Scott%20Wapner%20(live.pdf", "title": "CNBC interview — David Tepper with Scott Wapner", "date": "2018-09-13", "locator": "pp.4–6；CNBC unofficial transcript公开镜像", "accessLevel": "公开原始访谈/电话会转录镜像；已读具名实质段落，未听原录音或与官方文件逐字节核对；可能存在转录错误。 2010为节目方选摘，2018为unofficial transcript；不冒充原站全文字节核验。" } ], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "读取CMU官方Tepper简历PDF，身份可核但不含投资论证；未把成功经历作为方法证据。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.cmu.edu/sites/default/files/2025-05/bio-tepper-david.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "两份主办方完整投资访谈/演讲问答，包含估值、概率或仓位的具体推理。" } ] }, { "id": "B93", "name": "David Einhorn", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "President；Greenlight Re董事长", "currentRole": "President；Greenlight Re董事长", "firm": "Greenlight Capital", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://greenlightre.com/about-us", "title": "About us", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "官方正文已核身份；不将简介计入实质研究材料", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份本人演示，但没有跨两场三次可归因问答，不授予稳定个人问答方法认证", "当前职务和2026完整组合未另行确认", "市场结构及AI技术机制表述是作者判断，不是经本次审计的科学事实", "未复现信中第三方研究总量，也未验证具体投资结果" ], "coverageClass": "methodology", "careerStatus": "current-role-verified", "priority": false, "profileId": "einhorn-greenlight", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "B2D03", "title": "David Einhorn — Sohn Investment Conference, Solve AI", "url": "https://www.greenlightcapital.com/Download.aspx?ID=9d7d933c-1141-4e41-a630-7b0b17a13687", "date": "2024-04-03", "access": "官方主页公开列出的47页演示链接因octet-stream解析失败；读取Scribd公开逐页原文，封面确认David Einhorn和日期，审阅slides 1–6、40–44。镜像并非机构授权完整性认证；不复制演示。" }, { "id": "B2D04", "title": "Greenlight Capital Q1 2024 Partner Letter", "url": "https://imonkey-files.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/Greenlight%20Letter-Q1.pdf", "date": "2024-04-24", "access": "公开9页原始信PDF镜像，信头日期与末尾机构落款可见；审阅pp.1–2、5–8。并非Greenlight官网独立认证的副本；不转载含保密声明的原文。" }, { "id": "B2D05", "title": "Greenlight Capital Q3 2025 Partner Letter", "url": "https://hedgefundalpha.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Qlet2025-03-1_unlocked_watermark.pdf", "date": "2025-10-14", "access": "公开9页原始信PDF镜像，有水印和部分字符OCR错误；审阅pp.1–5、7–8日期、署名与披露；未以Hedge Fund Alpha新闻摘要替代信件。" }, { "id": "B2D07", "title": "David Einhorn — Robin Hood Investors Conference, Peloton Stock Pitch", "url": "https://www.greenlightcapital.com/Download.aspx?ID=c9a435af-fdc1-4ee3-a2fd-f869be7f6952", "date": "2024-10-23", "access": "官网公开索引列此日期；官方octet-stream读取失败；30页演示公开逐页镜像封面David Einhorn和10/23/24，审阅slides1–2、15–23、27–29。上传者不是原创作者，镜像完整性尚未逐字官方校验。" } ], "researchUpdateType": "existing evidence alignment only; no new source inspection" }, { "id": "B94", "name": "Daniel Loeb", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "CEO & CIO", "currentRole": "CEO & CIO", "firm": "Third Point", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.thirdpoint.com/", "title": "Third Point Leadership", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "官方人物页", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "投资信具有持仓与营销利益", "未验证HBM预测与未来折价收敛", "没有完整净敞口/对冲账本" ], "coverageClass": "methodology", "careerStatus": "current-role-verified", "priority": false, "profileId": "loeb-thirdpoint", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "D08", "title": "Third Point Q1 2025 Investor Letter", "url": "https://assets.thirdpointlimited.com/f/166217/x/bd64805fc1/third-point-q1-2025-investor-letter_tpil.pdf", "date": "2025-04-30", "access": "基金官方署名信，TPIL托管；核查Review and Outlook，不还原完整交易。" }, { "id": "D09", "title": "Third Point Q3 2025 Investor Letter", "url": "https://assets-malibu-life.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/system/uploads/fae/file/asset/1673/Third_Point_Q3_2025_Investor_Letter_TPIL.pdf", "date": "2025-10-31", "access": "基金署名信的托管PDF；核查pp2–5及信用章节，非完整预测业绩审计。" } ], "researchUpdateType": "existing evidence alignment only; no new source inspection" }, { "id": "B95", "name": "Bill Ackman", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Founder and CEO", "currentRole": "Founder and CEO（2026年披露）", "firm": "Pershing Square", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1895582/000119312526119405/ck0001895582-20251231.htm", "title": "2025 Form 10-K", "date": "2026", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "本人关联公司SEC披露确认Pershing Square身份", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未验证2026-10-06完整实时持仓及当前估值", "联合署名与团队材料不能精确拆分个人研究贡献", "没有收益归因或预测命中率独立审计", "尚无三次跨两场可归因问答，不授予稳定个人方法认证" ], "coverageClass": "methodology", "careerStatus": "current-role-verified", "priority": false, "profileId": "ackman-pershing", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "B2D01", "title": "PSCM Annual Investor Presentation", "url": "https://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/11144917/2026-Annual-Investor-Presentation.pdf", "date": "2026-02-11", "access": "官方85页PDF；本次审阅slides 8–16、22–23、38及免责声明，不宣称全报告审阅。" }, { "id": "B2D02", "title": "PSH 2026 Interim Report — Investment Manager’s Letter", "url": "https://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/13002306/Pershing-Square-Holdings-Ltd.-June-2026-Interim.pdf", "date": "2026-08-13", "access": "官方59页PDF；本次审阅Investment Manager’s Report / LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS及署名（物理PDF第8–10页，索引P7–P9）、公司/资本结构章节。材料列表显示2026-08-12，董事长报告签署2026-08-13，信件无独立日期；不是六月期末发表。" } ], "researchUpdateType": "existing evidence alignment only; no new source inspection" }, { "id": "B96", "name": "Chris Hohn", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "TCI Founder and Managing Director（2022–2023签名时）", "currentRole": "Founder", "firm": "TCI Fund Management", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.tcifund.com/", "title": "TCI", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "官方页面确认创立于2003年6月", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份公开材料仅支持有限方法样本；尚缺私人完整模型、预测复盘及跨时期方法检验。" ], "coverageClass": "methodology", "careerStatus": "current-role-verified", "priority": false, "profileId": "o9g6-chris-hohn", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "已读两份独立具名实质材料，补入有限方法样本及三阶段合成练习；不等于长期方法认证。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.tcifund.com/files/corporateengageement/alphabet/15th%20November%202022.pdf", "https://www.tcifund.com/files/corporateengageement/alphabet/20th%20January%202023.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "两份公开材料仅支持有限方法样本；尚缺私人完整模型、预测复盘及跨时期方法检验。" }, "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "O9G6-HOHN22", "url": "https://www.tcifund.com/files/corporateengageement/alphabet/15th%20November%202022.pdf", "title": "TCI letter to Alphabet CEO", "date": "2022-11-15", "locator": "pp.1–4", "accessLevel": "已视觉读取官方4页原信，核对日期、抬头及签名。" }, { "sourceId": "O9G6-HOHN23", "url": "https://www.tcifund.com/files/corporateengageement/alphabet/20th%20January%202023.pdf", "title": "TCI follow-up letter to Alphabet CEO", "date": "2023-01-20", "locator": "p.1", "accessLevel": "已视觉读取官方1页原信，核对日期、抬头及签名。" } ], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "定位TCI致Alphabet两封公开信，但本地403、检索PDF无正文且截图未取得可检查图像；不宣称已读。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.tcifund.com/files/corporateengageement/alphabet/20th%20January%202023.pdf", "https://www.tcifund.com/files/corporateengageement/alphabet/15th%20November%202022.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "下载/OCR读取2022-11-15与2023-01-20两封信并核对署名、费用与资本配置推理。" } ] }, { "id": "B97", "name": "Terry Smith", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "Fundsmith Equity Fund投资信作者", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Fundsmith", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/media/pirmvyly/annual-letter-to-shareholders-2024.pdf", "title": "2024 Annual Letter", "date": "2025-01", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "官方正文已核身份；不将简介计入实质研究材料", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "现任职务未单独核验", "AI观点应标明2023/2024信时期，非2026预测" ], "research": { "thesis": "企业质量、买入估值和低换手共同决定长期回报；AI资本支出必须转为自由现金流。", "assumptions": [ "高资本回报企业仍能再投资", "现金转换下降是暂时而非永久" ], "counterevidence": [ "基金2024落后指数", "AI竞赛使现金转换下降，原有轻资产特征可能改变" ], "skill": "将AI投资的利润增长与自由现金流转换分开验证。", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/media/pirmvyly/annual-letter-to-shareholders-2024.pdf", "title": "2024 Annual Letter", "date": "2025-01", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "正文已读：现金转换、AI资本开支、TXN和质量指标" }, { "url": "https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/media/31plodnq/2023-fef-annual-letter-to-shareholders.pdf", "title": "2023 Annual Letter", "date": "2024-01", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "正文已读：投资标准、退出Estée Lauder、下跌与长期质量" } ] }, "coverageClass": "methodology", "careerStatus": "role-at-source-only", "priority": false, "profileId": "smith-fundsmith", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "B1D01", "title": "Fundsmith Equity Fund Annual Letter to Shareholders 2024", "url": "https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/media/pirmvyly/annual-letter-to-shareholders-2024.pdf", "date": "2025-01", "access": "官方12页PDF；读取pp5–7、10–11及署名，不声称独立核验底层财务或完整收益归因。" }, { "id": "B1D02", "title": "Fundsmith Equity Fund Semi-Annual Letter to Shareholders 2026", "url": "https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/media/lfhpxi1x/fundsmith-equity-fund-semi-annual-letter-to-shareholders-2026.pdf", "date": "2026-07", "access": "官方17页PDF；读取pp5–10的流程修订、署名与费用段；未完整审计交易清单或归因。" } ] }, { "id": "B98", "name": "Nick Sleep", "side": "buy", "roleAtSource": "历史Nomad合伙人及投资信作者", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Nomad Investment Partnership", "focus": "投资方法论；非直接 AI 基建覆盖候选", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://igyfoundation.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Full_Collection_Nomad_Letters.pdf", "title": "Nomad letters 2001–2014", "date": "2021", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "官方正文已核身份；不将简介计入实质研究材料", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "仅两封历史信，尚无完整思想演变序列", "集中持有是否适合特定委托、流动性和负债结构需独立证明", "历史回报表未独立审计，存活企业案例存在选择偏差" ], "careerStatus": "historical", "coverageClass": "methodology", "priority": false, "profileId": "sleep-nomad", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "B1D03", "title": "Nomad Investment Partnership Annual Letter, period ended 31 December 2008", "url": "https://igyfoundation.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Full_Collection_Nomad_Letters_.pdf", "date": "2008-12-31", "access": "作者基金会批准选集中的独立年度原信；同容器非独立URL。读取PDF pp147–154正文及p155署名/角色脚注；不转载选集、不核验历史业绩。" }, { "id": "B1D04", "title": "Nomad Investment Partnership Interim Letter, period ended 30 June 2009", "url": 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"具名问题归分析师，回答归管理层；公式、假设、反例、挑战均为编辑合成，不代表本人投资立场。", "sources": [ { "url": "https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2027/q1/NVDA-Q1-2027-Earnings-Call-20-May-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf", "date": "2026-05-20", "title": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call", "access": "发行人官方CDN完整逐字稿可访问；已读具名问题及相邻回答，未听音频。" }, { "url": "https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/content_files/TRANSCRIPT_-NVIDIA-Corp-NVDA-US-Q2-2027-Earnings-Call-26-August-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf", "date": "2026-08-26", "title": "NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 Earnings Call", "access": "发行人官方CDN完整逐字稿可访问；已读具名问题及相邻回答，未听音频。" } ] }, "priority": true, "profileId": "rasgon-bernstein", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "D10", "title": "NVIDIA FY2026 Q2 Earnings Call", "url": "https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/NVDA-Q2-2026-Earnings-Call-27-August-2025-5_00-PM-ET.pdf", "date": "2025-08-27", "access": "公司托管FactSet更正稿；核查具名Q&A及角色名录，不是分析师研报。" }, { "id": "D11", "title": "NVIDIA FY2026 Q3 Earnings Call", "url": 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"accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "缺完整授权研报和投资回报审计。", "仅方法样本，不认证稳定个人思想。" ], "research": { "thesis": "先消除产品重叠，再将销售机会与融资风险分别入模。", "assumptions": [ "产品边界可核验；保证并不等同立即现金支出。" ], "counterevidence": [ "新增CPU可能替换旧服务器；被支持客户也可能发展替代芯片。" ], "reusableSkill": "增量市场与生态融资分开", "attribution": "具名问题归分析师，回答归管理层；公式、假设、反例、挑战均为编辑合成，不代表本人投资立场。", "sources": [ { "url": "https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2027/q1/NVDA-Q1-2027-Earnings-Call-20-May-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf", "date": "2026-05-20", "title": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call", "access": "发行人官方CDN完整逐字稿可访问；已读具名问题及相邻回答，未听音频。" }, { "url": "https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/content_files/TRANSCRIPT_-NVIDIA-Corp-NVDA-US-Q2-2027-Earnings-Call-26-August-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf", "date": "2026-08-26", "title": "NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 Earnings Call", "access": "发行人官方CDN完整逐字稿可访问；已读具名问题及相邻回答，未听音频。" } ] }, "priority": true, "profileId": "arya-bofa", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "D11", "title": "NVIDIA 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"2011-12-08", "title": "Texas Instruments Q4 2011 Mid-Quarter Update", "access": "SEC归档原始逐字稿；已读Lipacis具名问题及相邻回答。历史身份为Jefferies。" } ] }, "priority": true, "profileId": "lipacis-evercore", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "E7S03", "title": "Analog Devices at Nasdaq Investor Conference", "url": "https://investor.analog.com/static-files/14a935bd-d7ed-460e-a82c-838ad6ff3d5d", "date": "2023-06-13", "access": "发行人官方PDF；已读Lipacis关于订单、交期、分销库存的问答。历史身份为Jefferies。" }, { "id": "E7S04", "title": "Texas Instruments Q4 2011 Mid-Quarter Update", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747611000061/transcript.htm", "date": "2011-12-08", "access": "SEC归档原始逐字稿；已读Lipacis具名问题及相邻回答。历史身份为Jefferies。" } ] }, { "id": "S05", "name": "Harlan Sur", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "AMD covering analyst", "currentRole": "AMD covering analyst", "firm": "JP Morgan", "focus": [ "Semiconductors", "AI infrastructure" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.amd.com/stock-data/analyst-coverage", "title": "AMD Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "没有JPMorgan许可研究全文及其估计模型", "三个议题不构成同机制三次认证", "Lam管理层不披露完整地理制造及材料成本，不能伪精确预测", "未用第三方收益排名证明研究质量或推断当前评级" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "sur-jpm", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "S1D02", "title": "Lam Research FY2025 Q3 Earnings Call — issuer-hosted edited transcript", "date": "2025-04-23", "url": "https://filecache.investorroom.com/mr5ir_lamresearch2/1443/download/LRCX-USQ_Transcript_2025-04-23.pdf", "access": "Lam investorroom公司文件库托管Refinitiv编辑稿；核查p2身份和pp9–10 Sur问答，管理层未披露产地/成本全量细节。" }, { "id": "S1D01", "title": "NVIDIA FY2026 Q4 Earnings Call — issuer-hosted corrected transcript", "date": "2026-02-25", "url": 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"accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "缺完整授权研报和投资回报审计。", "仅方法样本，不认证稳定个人思想。" ], "research": { "thesis": "把终端模型收入、计算用量及芯片份额分开，避免把模型降价直接等同硬件需求下降。", "assumptions": [ "任务质量和成本口径一致，模型与芯片份额不能混用。" ], "counterevidence": [ "开放模型也可能迁移至竞争硬件；专用芯片不覆盖所有上下文和负载。" ], "reusableSkill": "专用产品与开放模型的价值归属", "attribution": "具名问题归分析师，回答归管理层；公式、假设、反例、挑战均为编辑合成，不代表本人投资立场。", "sources": [ { "url": "https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2027/q1/NVDA-Q1-2027-Earnings-Call-20-May-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf", "date": "2026-05-20", "title": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call", "access": "发行人官方CDN完整逐字稿可访问；已读具名问题及相邻回答，未听音频。" }, { "url": "https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/content_files/TRANSCRIPT_-NVIDIA-Corp-NVDA-US-Q2-2027-Earnings-Call-26-August-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf", "date": "2026-08-26", "title": "NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 Earnings Call", "access": "发行人官方CDN完整逐字稿可访问；已读具名问题及相邻回答，未听音频。" } ] }, 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"https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2027/q1/NVDA-Q1-2027-Earnings-Call-20-May-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf", "date": "2026-05-20", "access": "发行人官方CDN完整逐字稿可访问；已读具名问题及相邻回答，未听音频。" }, { "id": "S3D02", "title": "NVIDIA FY2027 Q2 Earnings Call", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/files/content_files/TRANSCRIPT_-NVIDIA-Corp-NVDA-US-Q2-2027-Earnings-Call-26-August-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf", "date": "2026-08-26", "access": "发行人托管FactSet更正稿；核查PDF pp2,14–15。不是分析师预测、目标价或研报；未将管理层回报主张当实证。 / 发行人官方CDN完整逐字稿可访问；已读具名问题及相邻回答，未听音频。" } ] }, { "id": "S07", "name": "Atif Malik", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "AMD covering analyst", "currentRole": "AMD covering analyst", "firm": "Citigroup", "focus": [ "Semiconductors", "AI infrastructure" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.amd.com/stock-data/analyst-coverage", "title": "AMD Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未审阅许可研究报告或完整预测模型", "当前任职和收益/预测命中率未在本批审计", "管理层答案需要独立客户与经营数据验证" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "malik-citi", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "S1D01", "title": "NVIDIA FY2026 Q4 Earnings Call — issuer-hosted corrected transcript", "date": "2026-02-25", "url": "https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2026/q4/NVDA-Q4-2026-Earnings-Call-25-February-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf", "access": "公司托管FactSet更正稿；核查p2角色名录、pp8–10两位指定Q&A，不是许可研报全文，未音频复核。 / Additional checked scope: 发行人托管FactSet更正稿；核查PDF pp2,15–16具名问题，非许可研报；管理层技术说法未独立全核。" }, { "id": "O8SAD2", "title": "AMD Q2 2026 Earnings Call", "date": "2026-08-04", "url": "https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_e6fb18640ea7bfff80a48dc92268a25f/amd/db/841/9237/webcast_transcript/AMD2Q26EarningsCallTranscript.pdf", "access": "AMD官方Financial Results页链接的PDF；2026-10-08直接下载并读具名问答正文，未听音频；网页搜索解析不可用但原PDF可读取。" } ], "researchUpgrade": "new dated primary Q&A research; method sample only" }, { "id": "S08", "name": "Harsh Kumar", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "AMD covering analyst", "currentRole": "AMD covering analyst", "firm": "BMO", "focus": [ "Semiconductors", "AI infrastructure" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.amd.com/stock-data/analyst-coverage", "title": "AMD Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "历史两场公开问答不证明2026当前投资观点", "未审阅许可研报或完整模型，未审计预测业绩", "跨议题样本，未认证同机制的稳定反复模式" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "kumar-piper", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8SAD4", "title": "AMD Q2 2024 Earnings Call", "date": "2024-07-30", "url": "https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_e6fb18640ea7bfff80a48dc92268a25f/amd/db/841/8899/webcast_transcript/AMD+2Q24call.pdf", "access": "AMD官方页链接PDF直接下载并读取Harsh Kumar p12；未听音频。答复正文标签误作Mitch Haws，后续称Lisa；只归为管理层，不强认具体答者。" }, { "id": "O8SAD5", "title": "AMD Q3 2024 Earnings Call", "date": "2024-10-29", "url": "https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_e6fb18640ea7bfff80a48dc92268a25f/amd/db/841/8900/webcast_transcript/AMD+3Q24call.pdf", "access": "AMD官方页链接PDF直接下载并读取Harsh Kumar pp15–16；未听音频。" } ], "researchUpgrade": "new historical dated primary Q&A research; method sample only" }, { "id": "S09", "name": "C. J. 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not new research" }, { "id": "S10", "name": "Vijay Rakesh", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Mizuho；下列2026-05-06电话会时身份", "currentRole": "AMD covering analyst", "firm": "Mizuho Securities", "focus": [ "Semiconductors", "AI infrastructure" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.amd.com/stock-data/analyst-coverage", "title": "AMD Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "r2s1-vijay-rakesh", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S1-ARM426", "url": "https://investors.arm.com/static-files/78526857-5997-46eb-9b65-0d3249d83711", "title": "Arm FYE2026 Q4 earnings call", "date": "2026-05-06", "locator": "pp.12–13", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" }, { "sourceId": "R2S1-IONQ126", "url": "https://s28.q4cdn.com/828571518/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT_-IonQ-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-6-May-2026-4_30-PM-ET.pdf", "title": "IonQ Q1 2026 earnings call", "date": "2026-05-06", "locator": "pp.25–26", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已逐段读两份具名原始材料，形成方法样本和三阶段合成练习；非人物整体观点认证。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://investors.arm.com/static-files/78526857-5997-46eb-9b65-0d3249d83711", "https://s28.q4cdn.com/828571518/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT_-IonQ-Q1-2026-Earnings-Call-6-May-2026-4_30-PM-ET.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" } }, { "id": "S11", "name": "John Vinh", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "KeyBanc；2022/2026会议时身份", "currentRole": "AMD covering analyst", "firm": "KeyBanc", "focus": [ "Semiconductors", "AI infrastructure" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.amd.com/stock-data/analyst-coverage", "title": "AMD Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "r2s1-john-vinh", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S1-CRUS22", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/307563939/files/doc_downloads/2022/08/CRUS-USQ_Transcript_2022-08-08.pdf", "title": "Cirrus Logic KeyBanc Technology Leadership Forum 2022", "date": "2022-08-08", "locator": "pp.3–4", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" }, { "sourceId": "R2S1-CRUS26", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/307563939/files/doc_events/2026/Aug/11/CRUS-US-CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-Cirrus-Logic-IncCRUSUS-KeyBanc-Technology-Leadership-Forum-1-ET-PM-12-08-2026-2026-08-12-0.pdf", "title": "Cirrus Logic KeyBanc Technology Leadership Forum 2026", "date": "2026-08-11", "locator": "pp.3–7", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已逐段读两份具名原始材料，形成方法样本和三阶段合成练习；非人物整体观点认证。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://s21.q4cdn.com/307563939/files/doc_downloads/2022/08/CRUS-USQ_Transcript_2022-08-08.pdf", "https://s21.q4cdn.com/307563939/files/doc_events/2026/Aug/11/CRUS-US-CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT-Cirrus-Logic-IncCRUSUS-KeyBanc-Technology-Leadership-Forum-1-ET-PM-12-08-2026-2026-08-12-0.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" } }, { "id": "S12", "name": "Rick Schafer", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "AMD covering analyst", "currentRole": "AMD covering analyst", "firm": "Oppenheimer", "focus": [ "Semiconductors", "AI infrastructure" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.amd.com/stock-data/analyst-coverage", "title": "AMD Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "历史两场公开问答不证明2026当前投资观点", "未审阅许可研报或完整模型，未审计预测业绩", "跨议题样本，未认证同机制的稳定反复模式" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "schafer-oppenheimer", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8SAD7", "title": "MaxLinear Oppenheimer 25th Annual Technology Conference — issuer-filed transcript", "date": "2022-08-09", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1288469/000110465922088223/tm2223040d1_425.htm", "access": "SEC Rule 425发行人备案正文；读取开头供应、交期和backlog问答，会议日期为2022-08-09。历史材料，不当作2026当前观点。" }, { "id": "O8SAD6", "title": "Cirrus Logic Oppenheimer Technology, Internet & Communications Conference", "date": "2024-08-14", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/307563939/files/doc_events/2024/Aug/14/corrected-transcript_-cirrus-logic-inc-crus-us-oppenheimer-technology-internet-communications-conference-14-august-2024-11_35-am-et.pdf", "access": "发行人CDN FactSet更正稿；2026-10-08读取Rick Schafer pp7–9,12–13，未听音频。" } ], "researchUpgrade": "new historical dated primary Q&A research; method sample only" }, { "id": "S13", "name": "Christopher Rolland", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "AMD covering analyst", "currentRole": "AMD covering analyst", "firm": "Susquehanna International Group", "focus": [ "Semiconductors", "AI infrastructure" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.amd.com/stock-data/analyst-coverage", "title": "AMD Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得许可研报、目标价模型或投资回报审计", "2026当前雇主角色未独立确认", "Cirrus 2025-11-04和2026-02-03为Dylan Ollivier代问，排除个人方法认证" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "rolland-susquehanna", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "S2D-B01", "title": "Cirrus Logic FY2025 Q2 Earnings Call", "date": "2024-11-04", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/307563939/files/doc_events/2024/Nov/04/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT_-Cirrus-Logic-Inc-CRUS-US-Q2-2025-Earnings-Call-4-November-2024-5_00-PM-ET.pdf", "access": "发行人托管FactSet更正稿；本地PDF文字提取，核查pp2、6–7本人Q&A；未复核音频，非卖方研报。" }, { "id": "S2D-B02", "title": "Cirrus Logic FY2026 Q1 Earnings Call", "date": "2025-08-05", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/307563939/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Cirrus-Logic_Q1-FY26-Earnings-Call.pdf", "access": "发行人托管FactSet更正稿；核查pp2、6–7本人Q&A；未复核音频，不代表完整许可研究。" } ], "researchUpgrade": "existing evidence alignment only; not new research" }, { "id": "S14", "name": "Srini Pajjuri", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "2025 Raymond James；2026 RBC；按来源时期区分", "currentRole": "AMD covering analyst", "firm": "RBC Capital Markets", "focus": [ "Semiconductors", "AI infrastructure" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.amd.com/stock-data/analyst-coverage", "title": "AMD Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "r2s1-srini-pajjuri", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S1-ARM425", "url": "https://investors.arm.com/static-files/181d5019-29bd-4ba5-af29-45888e25c637", "title": "Arm FYE2025 Q4 earnings call", "date": "2025-05-07", "locator": "pp.9–10", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" }, { "sourceId": "R2S1-ARM326", "url": "https://investors.arm.com/static-files/ba30dca7-d2dd-4d44-b4c5-9fd953fedaea", "title": "Arm FYE2026 Q3 earnings call", "date": "2026-02-04", "locator": "pp.12–13", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已逐段读两份具名原始材料，形成方法样本和三阶段合成练习；非人物整体观点认证。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://investors.arm.com/static-files/181d5019-29bd-4ba5-af29-45888e25c637", "https://investors.arm.com/static-files/ba30dca7-d2dd-4d44-b4c5-9fd953fedaea" ], "nextEvidence": "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" } }, { "id": "S15", "name": "Matt Bryson", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Wedbush分析师（2024及2026来源时）", "currentRole": "AMD covering analyst", "firm": "Wedbush", "focus": [ "Semiconductors", "AI infrastructure" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.amd.com/stock-data/analyst-coverage", "title": "AMD Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份公开材料仅支持有限方法样本；尚缺私人完整模型、预测复盘及跨时期方法检验。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "o9g6-matt-bryson", "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "已读两份独立具名实质材料，补入有限方法样本及三阶段合成练习；不等于长期方法认证。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.roic.ai/quote/AXTI/transcripts/2024-year/1-quarter", "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/07/diebold-nixdorf-dbd-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/" ], "nextEvidence": "两份公开材料仅支持有限方法样本；尚缺私人完整模型、预测复盘及跨时期方法检验。" }, "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "O9G6-AXT124", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/AXTI/transcripts/2024-year/1-quarter", "title": "AXT Q1 2024 earnings call", "date": "2024-05-02", "locator": "Matthew Bryson Q&A; lines 652–751", "accessLevel": "公开原始访谈/电话会转录镜像；已读具名实质段落，未听原录音或与官方文件逐字节核对；可能存在转录错误。" }, { "sourceId": "O9G6-DBD226", "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/07/diebold-nixdorf-dbd-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/", "title": "Diebold Nixdorf Q2 2026 earnings call", "date": "2026-08-07", "locator": "Matthew Bryson Q&A; lines 311–320", "accessLevel": "公开原始访谈/电话会转录镜像；已读具名实质段落，未听原录音或与官方文件逐字节核对；可能存在转录错误。" } ], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "官方SMCI覆盖名单核实Matt Bryson/Wedbush；Yahoo具名访谈正文访问429，不能用标题形成方法。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://ir.supermicro.com/stock-information/analyst-coverage/default.aspx", "https://finance.yahoo.com/video/why-the-memory-chip-supply-shortage-wont-hurt-suppliers-151813508.html" ], "nextEvidence": "需两份可访问的本人实质问答/文章正文。" } ] }, { "id": "S16", "name": "Aaron Rakers", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "AMD covering analyst", "currentRole": "AMD covering analyst", "firm": "Wells Fargo", "focus": [ "Semiconductors", "AI infrastructure" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.amd.com/stock-data/analyst-coverage", "title": "AMD Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "仅核查选定NVIDIA问题，未审阅许可卖方研报", "没有相同机制三次跨两电话会的稳定模式认证", "没有预测收益或目标价命中审计", "管理层每GW回报和技术优势仍需独立工作负载证据" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "rakers-wf", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "D10", "title": "NVIDIA FY2026 Q2 Earnings Call", "date": "2025-08-27", "url": "https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/NVDA-Q2-2026-Earnings-Call-27-August-2025-5_00-PM-ET.pdf", "access": "公司托管FactSet更正稿；核查具名Q&A及角色名录，不是分析师研报。" }, { "id": "D11", "title": "NVIDIA FY2026 Q3 Earnings Call", "date": "2025-11-19", "url": "https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2026/q3/NVDA-Q3-2026-Earnings-Call-19-November-2025-5_00-PM-ET.pdf", "access": "公司托管更正稿；逐项定位具名Q&A，不把管理层回答归为分析师观点。" }, { "id": "S1D01", "title": "NVIDIA FY2026 Q4 Earnings Call — issuer-hosted corrected transcript", "date": "2026-02-25", "url": "https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2026/q4/NVDA-Q4-2026-Earnings-Call-25-February-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf", "access": "公司托管FactSet更正稿；核查p2角色名录、pp8–10两位指定Q&A，不是许可研报全文，未音频复核。 / Additional checked scope: 发行人托管FactSet更正稿；核查PDF pp2,15–16具名问题，非许可研报；管理层技术说法未独立全核。" }, { "id": "S3D02", "title": "NVIDIA FY2027 Q2 Earnings Call", "date": "2026-08-26", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/files/content_files/TRANSCRIPT_-NVIDIA-Corp-NVDA-US-Q2-2027-Earnings-Call-26-August-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf", "access": "发行人托管FactSet更正稿；核查PDF pp2,14–15。不是分析师预测、目标价或研报；未将管理层回报主张当实证。" } ], "researchUpgrade": "existing evidence alignment only; not new research" }, { "id": "S17", "name": "Ruben Roy", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Stifel；2025 Ciena电话会时身份", "currentRole": "AMD covering analyst", "firm": "Stifel Nicolaus and Company", "focus": [ "Semiconductors", "AI infrastructure" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.amd.com/stock-data/analyst-coverage", "title": "AMD Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "r2s1-ruben-roy", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "O8SC-CIENQ125", "url": "https://s25.q4cdn.com/550667411/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/CIENA-Q1-2025-Financial-Results-Transcript.pdf", "title": "Ciena Q1 2025 Financial Results", "date": "2025-03-11", "locator": "pp.11–12", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" }, { "sourceId": "O8SC-CIENQ325", "url": "https://s25.q4cdn.com/550667411/files/doc_financials/2025/q3/Transcript-Cienas-Fiscal-Third-Quarter-2025-Financial-Results-Conference-Call.pdf", "title": "Ciena Q3 2025 Financial Results", "date": "2025-09-04", "locator": "pp.10–11", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已逐段读两份具名原始材料，形成方法样本和三阶段合成练习；非人物整体观点认证。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://s25.q4cdn.com/550667411/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/CIENA-Q1-2025-Financial-Results-Transcript.pdf", "https://s25.q4cdn.com/550667411/files/doc_financials/2025/q3/Transcript-Cienas-Fiscal-Third-Quarter-2025-Financial-Results-Conference-Call.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" } }, { "id": "S18", "name": "Tristan Gerra", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Baird；2023/2025 Seagate电话会时身份", "currentRole": "AMD covering analyst", "firm": "R. W. 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}, { "id": "S22", "name": "Chris Caso", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Wolfe Research；2026 MPS电话会时身份", "currentRole": "AMD covering analyst", "firm": "Wolfe Research", "focus": [ "Semiconductors", "AI infrastructure" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.amd.com/stock-data/analyst-coverage", "title": "AMD Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "r2s1-chris-caso", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S1-MPWR126", "url": "https://media.monolithicpower.com/investor-relations/events/MPS_Q1_2026_Earnings_Call_Transcript.pdf", "title": "MPS Q1 2026 earnings call", "date": "2026-04-30", "locator": "pp.14–15", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" }, { "sourceId": "R2S1-MPWR226", "url": 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"title": "AMD Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。", "所选材料含较早历史样本；需补近年同方法检验，不能外推至当前立场。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "r2s1-gus-richard", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S1-POWI305", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833640/000119312505207677/dex992.htm", "title": "Power Integrations Q3 2005 earnings call", "date": "2005-10-19", "locator": "Gus Richard具名问答，增长/准备金/毛利段", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" }, { "sourceId": "R2S1-ALTR410", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/768251/000076825111000005/conferencecalltranscript.htm", "title": "Altera Q4 2010 earnings call", "date": "2011-01-25", "locator": "Gus Richard具名问答末段", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已逐段读两份具名原始材料，形成方法样本和三阶段合成练习；非人物整体观点认证。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833640/000119312505207677/dex992.htm", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/768251/000076825111000005/conferencecalltranscript.htm" ], "nextEvidence": "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" } }, { "id": "S24", "name": "Cody Acree", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Drexel Hamilton（2016）、Benchmark（2024）分析师；现职StoneX另核", "currentRole": "Equity Research Analyst", "firm": "StoneX", "focus": [ "Semiconductors", "AI infrastructure" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.amd.com/stock-data/analyst-coverage", "title": "AMD Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" }, { "url": "https://www.stonex.com/en-us/business/equity-research/cody-acree/", "title": "StoneX Cody Acree official bio", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-09", "whatVerified": 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"https://investors.arm.com/static-files/04e0fd13-9243-49ba-927f-288765598926" ], "nextEvidence": "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" } }, { "id": "S27", "name": "Ben Reitzes", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "AMD covering analyst", "currentRole": "AMD covering analyst", "firm": "Melius Research", "focus": [ "Semiconductors", "AI infrastructure" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.amd.com/stock-data/analyst-coverage", "title": "AMD Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未审阅许可研究报告或完整预测模型", "当前任职和收益/预测命中率未在本批审计", "管理层答案需要独立客户与经营数据验证" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "reitzes-melius", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8SAD3", "title": "AMD Q2 2025 Earnings Call", "date": "2025-08-05", "url": 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"https://www.radiofreemobile.com/author/windsorr/", "title": "Richard Windsor author biography", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Self-published research site identifies founder and owner; prior 11-year Nomura tenure is historical.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "r2s1-richard-windsor", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S1-RFM1", "url": "https://www.radiofreemobile.com/openai-the-numbers-game/", "title": "OpenAI – The Numbers Game", "date": "2026-04-10", "locator": "正文收入/GW与运营成本推算段", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" }, { "sourceId": "R2S1-RFM2", "url": "https://www.radiofreemobile.com/amd-q1-26-money-for-nothing/", "title": "AMD Q1 26 – Money for Nothing", "date": "2026-05-07", "locator": "正文warrants及条件条款段", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已逐段读两份具名原始材料，形成方法样本和三阶段合成练习；非人物整体观点认证。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.radiofreemobile.com/openai-the-numbers-game/", "https://www.radiofreemobile.com/amd-q1-26-money-for-nothing/" ], "nextEvidence": "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" } }, { "id": "S29", "name": "Jim Kelleher", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Argus Research；具名页面作者", "currentRole": "AMD covering analyst", "firm": "Argus Research", "focus": [ "Semiconductors", "AI infrastructure" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.amd.com/stock-data/analyst-coverage", "title": "AMD Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "r2s1-jim-kelleher", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S1-ARGUS25", "url": 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"focus": [ "Semiconductors", "AI infrastructure" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.amd.com/stock-data/analyst-coverage", "title": "AMD Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering AMD.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "r2s1-jay-goldberg", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S1-D2D1", "url": "https://d2d.substack.com/p/d2d-contd-everything-is-an-ai-trade", "title": "D2D Cont'd – Everything is an AI Trade", "date": "2025-07-14", "locator": "Everything is an AI Trade Now；Semiconductor IP章节", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" }, { "sourceId": "R2S1-D2D2", "url": "https://d2d.substack.com/p/d2d-contd-fear-or-faith", "title": "D2D Cont'd: Fear or Faith?", "date": "2025-10-22", "locator": "Strategy or Faith?章节", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已逐段读两份具名原始材料，形成方法样本和三阶段合成练习；非人物整体观点认证。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://d2d.substack.com/p/d2d-contd-everything-is-an-ai-trade", "https://d2d.substack.com/p/d2d-contd-fear-or-faith" ], "nextEvidence": "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" } }, { "id": "S31", "name": "Sandeep Deshpande", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "JPMorgan；2025所选电话会时", "currentRole": "Besi covering analyst", "firm": "J.P. Morgan", "focus": [ "European semiconductors", "Semiconductor equipment" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.besi.com/investor-relations/research-coverage/", "title": "Besi Research Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering Besi.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "r2s1-sandeep-deshpande", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S2-ASML424", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2024-year/4-quarter", "title": "ASML Q4 2024 earnings Q&A — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-01-29", "locator": "Sandeep Deshpande末段Q&A", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" }, { "sourceId": "R2S2-ASML125", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2025-year/1-quarter", "title": "ASML Q1 2025 earnings Q&A — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-04-16", "locator": "Sandeep Deshpande末段Q&A", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已逐段读两场具名实质问答；ASML部分来自公开全文转录镜像，未听原始录音，需保留转录误差边界。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2024-year/4-quarter", "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2025-year/1-quarter" ], "nextEvidence": "核对ASML原录音、补完整研究模型与预测复盘；历史身份不等于现职。" } }, { "id": "S32", "name": "Andrew Gardiner", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Citi（2025/2026所选call时）；现已自述转Arm IR", "currentRole": "Vice President, Investor Relations", "firm": "Arm", "focus": [ "European semiconductors", "Semiconductor equipment" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.besi.com/investor-relations/research-coverage/", "title": "Besi Research Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering Besi.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" }, { "url": "https://www.linkedin.com/posts/andrew-gardiner-01913a2_after-26-years-on-the-sellside-talking-about-activity-7498033456505892865-0c7E", "title": "Current role primary verification", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-08", "whatVerified": "本人公开转职公告：结束26年卖方生涯加入Arm IR。保留sell为原始提名分类，档案只使用历史Citi问答。", "accessLevel": "primary page full text read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "r2s1-andrew-gardiner", "roleNote": "本人公开转职公告：结束26年卖方生涯加入Arm IR。保留sell为原始提名分类，档案只使用历史Citi问答。", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S1-ARM425", "url": "https://investors.arm.com/static-files/181d5019-29bd-4ba5-af29-45888e25c637", "title": "Arm FYE2025 Q4 earnings call", "date": "2025-05-07", "locator": "pp.6–7", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" }, { "sourceId": "R2S1-ARM426", "url": "https://investors.arm.com/static-files/78526857-5997-46eb-9b65-0d3249d83711", "title": "Arm FYE2026 Q4 earnings call", "date": "2026-05-06", "locator": "pp.6–7", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已逐段读两份具名原始材料，形成方法样本和三阶段合成练习；非人物整体观点认证。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://investors.arm.com/static-files/181d5019-29bd-4ba5-af29-45888e25c637", "https://investors.arm.com/static-files/78526857-5997-46eb-9b65-0d3249d83711", "https://www.linkedin.com/posts/andrew-gardiner-01913a2_after-26-years-on-the-sellside-talking-about-activity-7498033456505892865-0c7E" ], "nextEvidence": "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" }, "roleStatus": "historical-sell-side" }, { "id": "S33", "name": "Didier Scemama", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "BofA；AIXTRON下列call时身份", "currentRole": "Besi covering analyst", "firm": "BofA Securities", "focus": [ "European semiconductors", "Semiconductor equipment" ], "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.besi.com/investor-relations/research-coverage/", "title": "Besi Research Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Issuer lists analyst and firm covering Besi.", "accessLevel": "见核验范围；不等于完整研究报告" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "r2s1-didier-scemama", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S1-AIX423", "url": "https://www.aixtron.com/investoren/events/telefonkonferenz/2023/Edited%20Transcript%20FY-23%20Results%20Call.pdf", "title": "AIXTRON FY2023 results call", "date": "2024-02-29", "locator": "PDF pp.33–35，印刷pp.37–39", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" }, { "sourceId": "R2S1-AIX325", "url": "https://www.aixtron.com/investoren/events/telefonkonferenz/2025/AIXTRON_SE_Q3_2025_transcript.pdf", "title": "AIXTRON Q3 2025 earnings call", "date": "2025-10-30", "locator": "pp.9–11", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已逐段读两份具名原始材料，形成方法样本和三阶段合成练习；非人物整体观点认证。", "checkedUrls": [ 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"gaps": [ "两份公开材料仅支持有限方法样本；尚缺私人完整模型、预测复盘及跨时期方法检验。" ], "roleStatus": "historical-sell-side", "priority": false, "profileId": "o9g6-francois-meunier", "roleNote": "官方现职为资管股票市场负责人及组合经理；原sell分类为历史提名，不能统计为现任卖方。", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "已读两份独立具名实质材料，补入有限方法样本及三阶段合成练习；不等于长期方法认证。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML:UW/transcripts/2016-year/4-quarter", "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML:LI/transcripts/2017-year/1-quarter" ], "nextEvidence": "两份公开材料仅支持有限方法样本；尚缺私人完整模型、预测复盘及跨时期方法检验。" }, "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "O9G6-ASML416", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML:UW/transcripts/2016-year/4-quarter", "title": "ASML Q4 2016 earnings call", "date": "2017-01-18", "locator": "Francois Meunier Q&A; lines 605–636", "accessLevel": "公开原始访谈/电话会转录镜像；已读具名实质段落，未听原录音或与官方文件逐字节核对；可能存在转录错误。" }, { "sourceId": "O9G6-ASML117", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML:LI/transcripts/2017-year/1-quarter", "title": "ASML Q1 2017 earnings call", "date": "2017-04-19", "locator": "Francois Meunier Q&A; lines 888–907", "accessLevel": "公开原始访谈/电话会转录镜像；已读具名实质段落，未听原录音或与官方文件逐字节核对；可能存在转录错误。" } ], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "官方Norman K团队页核实已任股票市场负责人及NK Generation Alpha组合经理；基金页视频仅有标题，历史Morgan Stanley资料不等于两份方法。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.norman-k.com/who-are-we/the-norman-k-team/", "https://www.norman-k.com/norman-k-asset-management-professional/", "https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/tmt-barcelona-2015", "https://www.norman-k.com/who-are-we/the-norman-k-team/" ], "nextEvidence": "缺两份具名实质研究；不得继续列为现任卖方。" } ] }, { "id": "S36", "name": "Charlie Chan", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Equity research analyst", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Morgan Stanley", "focus": "半导体、设备与科技供应链", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2025-07/1f4f86c935f1de837672a6973154e64b26bdae57/TSMC%202Q25%20Transcript.pdf", "title": "TSMC Q2 2025 earnings call", "date": "2025-07-17", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Charlie Chan—Morgan Stanley analyst; Q&A pp.7–8", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "缺少本人完整证券研究报告和估值模型", "未审计预测结果、持仓或投资收益", "2025问答不保证2026具体任职及覆盖范围" ], "researchStatus": "method-sample; not recurring-method-certified", "research": { "thesis": "先进制程、汇率/定价、系统创新与AI市场边界", "assumptions": [ "假定全部成本为本币、无套保，美元换算成本上升10%；不代表TSMC真实成本结构。", "区域互斥且会计口径不变，不把潜在市场直接当已实现收入。" ], "counterevidence": [ "提价减少销量，固定成本无法同步下降。", "原基准排除了中国，则删除中国潜在机会不自动下修该基准。" ], "skill": [ { "title": "汇率压力能否被涨价抵消？", "tags": [ "F2", "F4", "F18", "F19" ] }, { "title": "移除一个市场，原增长目标还需要什么？", "tags": [ "F3", "F4", "F6", "F14", "F19" ] } ], "sources": [ { "id": "S36SRC1", "title": "TSMC Q2 2025 earnings call — Charlie Chan Q&A", "date": "2025-07-17", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2025-07/1f4f86c935f1de837672a6973154e64b26bdae57/TSMC%202Q25%20Transcript.pdf", "access": "公司官网完整PDF正文可检索；已读Charlie Chan问答pp.7–8与参会名单，2026-10-07。", "authors": "Charlie Chan (questions); C.C. Wei (answers)", "summary": "Chan把汇率压力与定价联系起来，并追问中国市场变化是否改变AI增长假设。回答属于TSMC管理层。", "retrieval_level": "primary-full-text; relevant Q&A read", "source_type": "official earnings transcript" }, { "id": "S36SRC2", "title": "TSMC Q3 2025 earnings call — Charlie Chan Q&A", "date": "2025-10-16", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/chinese/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2025-10/6860312f04fd291d0f26b46c1234f84e6332717e/TSMC%203Q25%20Transcript.pdf", "access": "公司官网完整PDF正文可检索；已读Charlie Chan问答pp.7–8，2026-10-07。", "authors": "Charlie Chan (questions); C.C. Wei (answers)", "summary": "Chan追问系统创新与先进制程需求如何兼容，并再次检验中国限制与长期AI增长的关系。", "retrieval_level": "primary-full-text; relevant Q&A read", "source_type": "official earnings transcript" } ], "attribution": "提问、本人观点、管理层回答与编辑合成分开；不宣称分析师推荐模型或投资结论。" }, "priority": true, "profileId": "charlie-chan-ms", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "S36SRC1", "title": "TSMC Q2 2025 earnings call — Charlie Chan Q&A", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2025-07/1f4f86c935f1de837672a6973154e64b26bdae57/TSMC%202Q25%20Transcript.pdf", "date": "2025-07-17", "access": "公司官网完整PDF正文可检索；已读Charlie Chan问答印刷页pp.8–9（PDF零起始索引7–8）与参会名单，2026-10-07。" }, { "id": "S36SRC2", "title": "TSMC Q3 2025 earnings call — Charlie Chan Q&A", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/chinese/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2025-10/6860312f04fd291d0f26b46c1234f84e6332717e/TSMC%203Q25%20Transcript.pdf", "date": "2025-10-16", "access": "公司官网完整PDF正文可检索；已读Charlie Chan问答印刷页pp.8–9（PDF零起始索引7–8），2026-10-07。" } ] }, { "id": "S37", "name": "Randy Abrams", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "2023 Credit Suisse；2024 UBS（所选call时）", "currentRole": null, "firm": "UBS", "focus": "半导体、设备与科技供应链", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.ubs.com/global/en/investment-bank/insights-and-data/future-world.html", "title": "UBS Technology in focus", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Randy Abrams appears in UBS tech analyst insight lineup; no exact personal title", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "r2s1-randy-abrams", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S1-TSM422", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2023-01/84f1ef6f66c6c90b05d2e581066a01a8f1c4f410/TSMC%204Q22%20Transcript.pdf", "title": "TSMC Q4 2022 earnings call", "date": "2023-01-12", "locator": "pp.7–9", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" }, { "sourceId": "R2S1-TSM124", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/chinese/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2024-04/34ff75e23e53246302ce3a8d90d0423c57c6b120/TSMC%201Q24%20Transcript.pdf", "title": "TSMC Q1 2024 earnings call", "date": "2024-04-18", "locator": "pp.11–13", "accessLevel": "actual named substantive passages read" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "已逐段读两份具名原始材料，形成方法样本和三阶段合成练习；非人物整体观点认证。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2023-01/84f1ef6f66c6c90b05d2e581066a01a8f1c4f410/TSMC%204Q22%20Transcript.pdf", "https://investor.tsmc.com/chinese/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2024-04/34ff75e23e53246302ce3a8d90d0423c57c6b120/TSMC%201Q24%20Transcript.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "公开具名两份材料仅支持方法样本；尚无私人完整模型、预测复盘及长期业绩审计。" } }, { "id": "S38", "name": "Bruce Lu", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Equity research analyst", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Goldman Sachs", "focus": "半导体、设备与科技供应链", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2025-07/1f4f86c935f1de837672a6973154e64b26bdae57/TSMC%202Q25%20Transcript.pdf", "title": "TSMC Q2 2025 earnings call", "date": "2025-07-17", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Bruce Lu—Goldman Sachs analyst; participant roster and Q&A", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "仅研究两次公开问答样本；未取得完整证券研报、估值模型或底层渠道数据。", "未审计预测结果或投资绩效；2025来源角色不等于2026现职核验。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "bruce-lu-gs", "roleNote": "", "researchStatus": "method-sample; not recurring-method-certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "S36SRC1", "title": "TSMC Q2 2025 earnings call — Charlie Chan Q&A", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2025-07/1f4f86c935f1de837672a6973154e64b26bdae57/TSMC%202Q25%20Transcript.pdf", "date": "2025-07-17", "access": "2026-10-08官方正文选段核读；印刷页9–10，Bruce Lu" }, { "id": "S36SRC2", "title": "TSMC Q3 2025 earnings call — Charlie Chan Q&A", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/chinese/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2025-10/6860312f04fd291d0f26b46c1234f84e6332717e/TSMC%203Q25%20Transcript.pdf", "date": "2025-10-16", "access": "2026-10-08官方正文选段核读；印刷页11–13，Bruce Lu" } ] }, { "id": "S39", "name": "Gokul Hariharan", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Equity research analyst", "currentRole": null, "firm": "J.P. Morgan", "focus": "半导体、设备与科技供应链", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2025-07/1f4f86c935f1de837672a6973154e64b26bdae57/TSMC%202Q25%20Transcript.pdf", "title": "TSMC Q2 2025 earnings call", "date": "2025-07-17", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Gokul Hariharan—JPMorgan analyst; participant roster and Q&A", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "仅研究两次公开问答样本；未取得完整证券研报、估值模型或底层渠道数据。", "未审计预测结果或投资绩效；2025来源角色不等于2026现职核验。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "gokul-hariharan-jpm", "roleNote": "", "researchStatus": "method-sample; not recurring-method-certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "S36SRC1", "title": "TSMC Q2 2025 earnings call — Charlie Chan Q&A", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2025-07/1f4f86c935f1de837672a6973154e64b26bdae57/TSMC%202Q25%20Transcript.pdf", "date": "2025-07-17", "access": "2026-10-08官方正文选段核读；印刷页6–8，Gokul Hariharan" }, { "id": "S36SRC2", "title": "TSMC Q3 2025 earnings call — Charlie Chan Q&A", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/chinese/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2025-10/6860312f04fd291d0f26b46c1234f84e6332717e/TSMC%203Q25%20Transcript.pdf", "date": "2025-10-16", "access": "2026-10-08官方正文选段核读；印刷页6–7，Gokul Hariharan" } ] }, { "id": "S40", "name": "C. S. Kim", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": null, "currentRole": null, "firm": null, "focus": "半导体、设备与科技供应链", "identitySources": [], "status": "candidate", "gaps": [ "仍需原提名完整姓名或机构。Dataquest文献缩写与物理/器件学者同名不能建立唯一身份；不据同名强行补档。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": null, "roleNote": "", "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-09", "outcome": "再次检索精确缩写、半导体与Dataquest组合；历史缩写线索仍无可唯一绑定原提名的全名与机构，未以同名研究者替代。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://archive.computerhistory.org/resources/access/text/2013/04/102723334-05-01-acc.pdf", "https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/b100866.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "仍需原提名完整姓名或机构。Dataquest文献缩写与物理/器件学者同名不能建立唯一身份；不据同名强行补档。" }, "methodSources": [], "researchHistory": [ { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "精确缩写检索未能唯一绑定本提名；实际下载并检索历史Dataquest原件，贡献分析师名单出现C.S. Kim，但正文仍没有足以绑定本提名的全名/当前机构；另两同名结果仅检索结果，不作为身份原证据。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://archive.computerhistory.org/resources/access/text/2013/04/102723334-05-01-acc.pdf", "https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-kim-692a7541b", "https://mst.elsevierpure.com/en/persons/chang-soo-kim/" ], "nextEvidence": "需原提名机构或完整姓名，再与历史Dataquest作者身份匹配；不以物理学者或同名顾问替代。" } ] }, { "id": "S41", "name": "Mehdi Hosseini", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Equity research analyst", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Susquehanna", "focus": "半导体、设备与科技供应链", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.appliedmaterials.com/stock-information/analyst-coverage/", "title": "Applied Materials analyst coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Mehdi Hosseini listed with Susquehanna", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份选读材料仅支持公开提问样本，未认证持续个人方法或预测业绩", "未取得个人付费报告、完整估值模型及投资回报核验", "至少一项为公开第三方问答转录，未与录音逐字校对" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "mehdi-hosseini", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S2-ASML424", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2024-year/4-quarter", "title": "ASML Q4 2024 earnings Q&A — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-01-29", "accessed": "2026-10-08", "locator": "Hosseini具名问答", "whatVerified": "追问设备吞吐、产能弹性与客户承诺。", "retrievalLevel": "public full transcript mirror; attributable questions read", "accessLevel": "2026-10-08实际阅读具名问答正文；公开第三方原始问答转录镜像，未听录音；可能有转录错误。" }, { "sourceId": "S36SRC1", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2025-07/1f4f86c935f1de837672a6973154e64b26bdae57/TSMC%202Q25%20Transcript.pdf", "title": "TSMC Q2 2025 earnings call — Charlie Chan Q&A", "date": "2025-07-17", "accessed": "2026-10-08", "locator": "pp.17–18", "whatVerified": "追问N2流片增长是否需要更高资本强度。", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text; relevant Q&A read", "accessLevel": "公司官网完整PDF正文可检索；已读Charlie Chan问答印刷页pp.8–9（PDF零起始索引7–8）与参会名单，2026-10-07。" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "完成两份实质具名问答选读及一张三阶段合成练习；仍是材料样本，不认证持续方法。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2024-year/4-quarter", "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2025-07/1f4f86c935f1de837672a6973154e64b26bdae57/TSMC%202Q25%20Transcript.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "扩展独立时期具名问答，取得原始录音或个人报告验证反例和稳定性" } }, { "id": "S42", "name": "Krish Sankar", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Equity research analyst", "currentRole": null, "firm": "TD Cowen", "focus": "半导体、设备与科技供应链", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://ir.appliedmaterials.com/stock-information/analyst-coverage/", "title": "Applied Materials analyst coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Krish Sankar listed with TD Cowen", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份选读材料仅支持公开提问样本，未认证持续个人方法或预测业绩", "未取得个人付费报告、完整估值模型及投资回报核验", "至少一项为公开第三方问答转录，未与录音逐字校对" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "krish-sankar", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S2-ASML125", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2025-year/1-quarter", "title": "ASML Q1 2025 earnings Q&A — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-04-16", "accessed": "2026-10-08", "locator": "Sankar具名问答", "whatVerified": "追问次年增长需要的订单及区域构成。", "retrievalLevel": "public full transcript mirror; attributable questions read", "accessLevel": "2026-10-08实际阅读具名问答正文；公开第三方原始问答转录镜像，未听录音；可能有转录错误。" }, { "sourceId": "S36SRC2", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/chinese/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2025-10/6860312f04fd291d0f26b46c1234f84e6332717e/TSMC%203Q25%20Transcript.pdf", "title": "TSMC Q3 2025 earnings call — Charlie Chan Q&A", "date": "2025-10-16", "accessed": "2026-10-08", "locator": "pp.15–16", "whatVerified": "询问1GW AI容量如何映射晶圆需求及GPU/ASIC组合。", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text; relevant Q&A read", "accessLevel": "公司官网完整PDF正文可检索；已读Charlie Chan问答印刷页pp.8–9（PDF零起始索引7–8），2026-10-07。" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "完成两份实质具名问答选读及一张三阶段合成练习；仍是材料样本，不认证持续方法。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2025-year/1-quarter", "https://investor.tsmc.com/chinese/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2025-10/6860312f04fd291d0f26b46c1234f84e6332717e/TSMC%203Q25%20Transcript.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "扩展独立时期具名问答，取得原始录音或个人报告验证反例和稳定性" } }, { "id": "S43", "name": "Toshiya Hari", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Former Goldman Sachs semiconductor analyst; 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attributable questions read", "accessLevel": "2026-10-08实际阅读具名问答正文；公开第三方原始问答转录镜像，未听录音；可能有转录错误。" }, { "sourceId": "R2S2-ASML125", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2025-year/1-quarter", "title": "ASML Q1 2025 earnings Q&A — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-04-16", "accessed": "2026-10-08", "locator": "Houri具名问答", "whatVerified": "追问订单波动是否来自关税，以及指引订单覆盖。", "retrievalLevel": "public full transcript mirror; attributable questions read", "accessLevel": "2026-10-08实际阅读具名问答正文；公开第三方原始问答转录镜像，未听录音；可能有转录错误。" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "完成两份实质具名问答选读及一张三阶段合成练习；仍是材料样本，不认证持续方法。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2024-year/4-quarter", "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2025-year/1-quarter" ], "nextEvidence": "扩展独立时期具名问答，取得原始录音或个人报告验证反例和稳定性" } }, { "id": "S49", "name": "François-Xavier Bouvignies", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Equity research analyst", "currentRole": null, "firm": "UBS", "focus": "半导体、设备与科技供应链", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.ericsson.com/en/investors/share-information/analyst-coverage", "title": "Ericsson analyst coverage", "date": "2026-10", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "François-Xavier Bouvignies and firm listed; page marked updated October 2026", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份选读材料仅支持公开提问样本，未认证持续个人方法或预测业绩", "未取得个人付费报告、完整估值模型及投资回报核验", "至少一项为公开第三方问答转录，未与录音逐字校对" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "francois-xavier-bouvignies", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S2-ASML424", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2024-year/4-quarter", "title": "ASML Q4 2024 earnings Q&A — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-01-29", "accessed": "2026-10-08", "locator": "Bouvignies具名问答", "whatVerified": "检验2nm扩产是否前置及AI能否抵消手机弱势。", "retrievalLevel": "public full transcript mirror; attributable questions read", "accessLevel": "2026-10-08实际阅读具名问答正文；公开第三方原始问答转录镜像，未听录音；可能有转录错误。" }, { "sourceId": "R2S2-ASML125", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2025-year/1-quarter", "title": "ASML Q1 2025 earnings Q&A — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-04-16", "accessed": "2026-10-08", "locator": "Bouvignies具名问答", "whatVerified": "问High-NA定价能否促进采用及单次曝光替代节奏。", "retrievalLevel": "public full transcript mirror; attributable questions read", "accessLevel": "2026-10-08实际阅读具名问答正文；公开第三方原始问答转录镜像，未听录音；可能有转录错误。" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "完成两份实质具名问答选读及一张三阶段合成练习；仍是材料样本，不认证持续方法。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2024-year/4-quarter", "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2025-year/1-quarter" ], "nextEvidence": "扩展独立时期具名问答，取得原始录音或个人报告验证反例和稳定性" } }, { "id": "S50", "name": "Alexander Duval", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Equity research analyst", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Goldman Sachs", "focus": "半导体、设备与科技供应链", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.ericsson.com/en/investors/share-information/analyst-coverage", "title": "Ericsson analyst coverage", "date": "2026-10", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Alexander Duval and firm listed; page marked updated October 2026", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份选读材料仅支持公开提问样本，未认证持续个人方法或预测业绩", "未取得个人付费报告、完整估值模型及投资回报核验", "至少一项为公开第三方问答转录，未与录音逐字校对" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "alexander-duval", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S2-ASML125", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2025-year/1-quarter", "title": "ASML Q1 2025 earnings Q&A — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-04-16", "accessed": "2026-10-08", "locator": "Duval具名问答", "whatVerified": "区分EUV研发消息与可扩展可靠产品，问推理需求。", "retrievalLevel": "public full transcript mirror; attributable questions read", "accessLevel": "2026-10-08实际阅读具名问答正文；公开第三方原始问答转录镜像，未听录音；可能有转录错误。" }, { "sourceId": "R2S2-ASML225", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter", "title": "ASML Q2 2025 earnings Q&A — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-07-16", "accessed": "2026-10-08", "locator": "Duval具名问答", "whatVerified": "追问DRAM光刻强度和通用平台时间线。", "retrievalLevel": "public full transcript mirror; attributable questions read", "accessLevel": "2026-10-08实际阅读具名问答正文；公开第三方原始问答转录镜像，未听录音；可能有转录错误。" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "完成两份实质具名问答选读及一张三阶段合成练习；仍是材料样本，不认证持续方法。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2025-year/1-quarter", "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ASML/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter" ], "nextEvidence": "扩展独立时期具名问答，取得原始录音或个人报告验证反例和稳定性" } }, { "id": "S51", "name": "Keith Weiss", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Equity research analyst", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Morgan Stanley", "focus": "云软件与AI变现", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2025/earnings-fy-2025-q4", "title": "Microsoft FY2025 Q4 earnings call", "date": "2025-07-30", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Keith Weiss labelled Morgan Stanley; question concerns customer-to-competitor risk", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "尚缺完整研究报告底层数据", "未核验2025商业采用预测的事后结果", "不能用管理层解释代替独立验证" ], "researchStatus": "method-sample; not recurring-method-certified", "research": { "thesis": "AI商业采用、云增长归因、客户集中与商业模式", "assumptions": [ "以下客户毛利已按相同成本口径计量；未给估值和资本成本，不能推股票价值。", "客户/用量期间一致，试用量未计收入；技术能力不保证采用或盈利。" ], "counterevidence": [ "客户流失恰好释放稀缺容量，被新客户以更高贡献填补。", "免费试用迅速增加但转化、付费使用率或实现价格下降。" ], "skill": [ { "title": "最大的AI客户会不会成为竞争者？", "tags": [ "F4", "F10", "F14", "F16", "F20" ] }, { "title": "研发能力、可售产品与付费采用不是同一阶段", "tags": [ "F3", "F5", "F7", "F10", "F14" ] } ], "sources": [ { "id": "S51SRC1", "title": "Microsoft FY2025 Q2 earnings call — Keith Weiss Q&A", "date": "2025-01-29", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2025/earnings-fy-2025-q2", "access": "Microsoft官方完整HTML转录；已读Weiss提问与Hood/Nadella回答，2026-10-07。", "authors": "Keith Weiss (question); Amy Hood and Satya Nadella (answers)", "summary": "Weiss追问Azure落在指引低端的执行原因。Hood将非AI销售执行与AI容量约束分开解释；这是管理层判断。", "retrieval_level": "primary-full-text; relevant Q&A read", "source_type": "official earnings transcript" }, { "id": "S51SRC2", "title": "Microsoft FY2025 Q4 earnings call — Weiss and Moerdler Q&A", "date": "2025-07-30", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2025/earnings-fy-2025-q4", "access": "Microsoft官方完整HTML转录；已读两人提问与相关回答，2026-10-07。", "authors": "Keith Weiss and Mark Moerdler (questions); Satya Nadella and Amy Hood (answers)", "summary": "Weiss问大客户AI实验室日后自建与竞争的风险；Moerdler问SaaS AI计费与利润率。平台学习收益、混合计费的解释来自管理层。", "retrieval_level": "primary-full-text; relevant Q&A read", "source_type": "official earnings transcript" }, { "id": "S51SRC3", "title": "Morgan Stanley — Will GenAI Turn a Profit in 2025?", "date": "2025-03-03", "url": "https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/genai-profit-2025-joe-moore-keith-weiss", "access": "机构官方播客转录正文；已读Weiss发言，2026-10-07；未核验音频及事后预测结果。", "authors": "Keith Weiss; Joe Moore", "summary": "Weiss区分研究、产品开发/基础设施建设、商业采用阶段，讨论自动化下按交易或用量计费。不能把Moore的芯片周期判断归给Weiss。", "retrieval_level": "primary-full-text; Weiss transcript passages read", "source_type": "analyst-authored institutional podcast" } ], "attribution": "提问、本人观点、管理层回答与编辑合成分开；不宣称分析师推荐模型或投资结论。" }, "priority": true, "profileId": "keith-weiss-ms", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "S51SRC1", "title": "Microsoft FY2025 Q2 earnings call — Keith Weiss Q&A", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2025/earnings-fy-2025-q2", "date": "2025-01-29", "access": "Microsoft官方完整HTML转录；已读Weiss提问与Hood/Nadella回答，2026-10-07。" }, { "id": "S51SRC2", "title": "Microsoft FY2025 Q4 earnings call — Weiss and Moerdler Q&A", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2025/earnings-fy-2025-q4", "date": "2025-07-30", "access": "Microsoft官方完整HTML转录；已读两人提问与相关回答，2026-10-07。" }, { "id": "S51SRC3", "title": "Morgan Stanley — Will GenAI Turn a Profit in 2025?", "url": "https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/genai-profit-2025-joe-moore-keith-weiss", "date": "2025-03-03", "access": "机构官方播客转录正文；已读Weiss发言，2026-10-07；未核验音频及事后预测结果。" } ] }, { "id": "S52", "name": "Mark Moerdler", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Equity research analyst", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Bernstein", "focus": "云软件与AI变现", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.adobe.com/cc-shared/assets/investor-relations/pdfs/adbe-q3fy25-transcript.pdf", "title": "Adobe Q3 FY2025 earnings call", "date": "2025-09-11", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Mark L. Moerdler labelled Bernstein Research; question concerns seat/consumption monetization", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "缺少本人完整模型与评级论证", "只有问题样本，不能认证稳定投资方法", "尚未跟踪席位、用量及AI成本的同队列数据" ], "researchStatus": "method-sample; not recurring-method-certified", "research": { "thesis": "软件AI变现、席位与用量、增量利润", "assumptions": [ "两类收入互斥、未重复包含AI套餐；不把合同额、调用量和收入混用。", "费用和替代收入均属相同期间，未给税、资本开支或营运资金，不能推出FCF。" ], "counterevidence": [ "用量收入增长但推理成本增长更快，或套餐内用量并非额外收费。", "AI高速增长但替代原高毛利收入，或成本/销售费用超过增量毛利。" ], "skill": [ { "title": "用量收入能补上席位减少吗？", "tags": [ "F2", "F4", "F10", "F11", "F16" ] }, { "title": "AI收入变重要，利润也一定变重要吗？", "tags": [ "F2", "F4", "F10", "F11", "F18" ] } ], "sources": [ { "id": "S51SRC2", "title": "Microsoft FY2025 Q4 earnings call — Weiss and Moerdler Q&A", "date": "2025-07-30", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2025/earnings-fy-2025-q4", "access": "Microsoft官方完整HTML转录；已读两人提问与相关回答，2026-10-07。", "authors": "Keith Weiss and Mark Moerdler (questions); Satya Nadella and Amy Hood (answers)", "summary": "Weiss问大客户AI实验室日后自建与竞争的风险；Moerdler问SaaS AI计费与利润率。平台学习收益、混合计费的解释来自管理层。", "retrieval_level": "primary-full-text; relevant Q&A read", "source_type": "official earnings transcript" }, { "id": "S52SRC2", "title": "Adobe Q3 FY2025 earnings call — Mark Moerdler Q&A", "date": "2025-09-11", "url": "https://www.adobe.com/cc-shared/assets/investor-relations/pdfs/adbe-q3fy25-transcript.pdf", "access": "Adobe官网完整PDF转录；已读Moerdler问答p.17，2026-10-07。", "authors": "Mark L. Moerdler (question); Shantanu Narayen (answer)", "summary": "Moerdler检验用量收入能否弥补潜在席位压力及AI规模化时间；席位和自动化同时扩张是管理层的回答。", "retrieval_level": "primary-full-text; relevant Q&A read", "source_type": "official earnings transcript" } ], "attribution": "提问、本人观点、管理层回答与编辑合成分开；不宣称分析师推荐模型或投资结论。" }, "priority": true, "profileId": "mark-moerdler-bernstein", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "S51SRC2", "title": "Microsoft FY2025 Q4 earnings call — Weiss and Moerdler Q&A", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2025/earnings-fy-2025-q4", "date": "2025-07-30", "access": "Microsoft官方完整HTML转录；已读两人提问与相关回答，2026-10-07。" }, { "id": "S52SRC2", "title": "Adobe Q3 FY2025 earnings call — Mark Moerdler Q&A", "url": "https://www.adobe.com/cc-shared/assets/investor-relations/pdfs/adbe-q3fy25-transcript.pdf", "date": "2025-09-11", "access": "Adobe官网完整PDF转录；已读Moerdler问答p.17，2026-10-07。" } ] }, { "id": "S53", "name": "Karl Keirstead", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Equity research analyst", "currentRole": null, "firm": "UBS", "focus": "云软件与AI变现", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://investors.mongodb.com/financial-information/analyst-coverage", "title": "MongoDB analyst coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Karl Keirstead listed with UBS", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "仅研究两次公开问答样本；未取得完整证券研报、估值模型或底层渠道数据。", "未审计预测结果或投资绩效；2025来源角色不等于2026现职核验。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "karl-keirstead-ubs", "roleNote": "", "researchStatus": "method-sample; 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direct page body omitted table", "accessLevel": "primary-search-extract; direct page body omitted table" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份选读材料仅支持公开提问样本，未认证持续个人方法或预测业绩", "未取得个人付费报告、完整估值模型及投资回报核验", "至少一项为公开第三方问答转录，未与录音逐字校对" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "gregg-moskowitz", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S2-ADBE224", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ADBE/transcripts/2024-year/2-quarter", "title": "Adobe FY2024 Q2 earnings Q&A — public transcript mirror", "date": "2024-06-13", "accessed": "2026-10-08", "locator": "Moskowitz具名问答", "whatVerified": "追问付费用户增长及数字渠道获客。", "retrievalLevel": "public full transcript mirror; attributable questions read", "accessLevel": "2026-10-08实际阅读具名问答正文；公开第三方原始问答转录镜像，未听录音；可能有转录错误。" }, { "sourceId": "R2S2-NOW225", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/NOW/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter", "title": "ServiceNow Q2 2025 earnings Q&A — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-07-23", "accessed": "2026-10-08", "locator": "Moskowitz具名问答", "whatVerified": "检验不同地区销售领导变化后的执行能力。", "retrievalLevel": "public full transcript mirror; attributable questions read", "accessLevel": "2026-10-08实际阅读具名问答正文；公开第三方原始问答转录镜像，未听录音；可能有转录错误。" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "完成两份实质具名问答选读及一张三阶段合成练习；仍是材料样本，不认证持续方法。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ADBE/transcripts/2024-year/2-quarter", "https://www.roic.ai/quote/NOW/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter" ], "nextEvidence": "扩展独立时期具名问答，取得原始录音或个人报告验证反例和稳定性" } }, { "id": "S64", "name": "Michael Turits", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Former equity research analyst; transitioning to software investment banking", "currentRole": null, "firm": "KeyBanc Capital Markets", "focus": "云软件与AI变现", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.linkedin.com/posts/keybanc-capital-markets_we-are-thrilled-to-share-strategic-changes-activity-7140384836640194561-Ntoe", "title": "KeyBanc official software team transition announcement", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Jackson Ader replacing Michael Turits as lead software analyst; Turits moving to software investment banking", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两份选读材料仅支持公开提问样本，未认证持续个人方法或预测业绩", "未取得个人付费报告、完整估值模型及投资回报核验", "至少一项为公开第三方问答转录，未与录音逐字校对", "保留历史研究，不计当前卖方在岗人数；现职沿用已有一手转职证据" ], "activeSellSide": false, "historical": true, "priority": false, "profileId": "michael-turits", "roleNote": "；历史角色或已转职，不计作当前卖方研究员。", "methodSources": [ { "sourceId": "R2S2-SPLK123", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/SPLK/transcripts/2023-year/1-quarter", "title": "Splunk FY2023 Q1 earnings Q&A — public transcript mirror", "date": "2022-05-25", "accessed": "2026-10-08", "locator": "Michael Turits具名问答", "whatVerified": "检验计费方式价值与宏观延迟对消费的影响。", "retrievalLevel": "public full transcript mirror; attributable questions read", "accessLevel": "2026-10-08实际阅读具名问答正文；公开第三方原始问答转录镜像，未听录音；可能有转录错误。" }, { "sourceId": "R2S2-UI324", "url": "https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_ce622def36020bd12ae7bda661b8d25a/uipath/db/1195/13709/webcast_transcript/UiPath_-_3Q_2024_-_Earnings_Call_Transcript.pdf", "title": "UiPath FY2024 Q3 earnings call", "date": "2023-11-30", "accessed": "2026-10-08", "locator": "pp.17–18", "whatVerified": "追问部署提速及固定汇率NRR仍下降。", "retrievalLevel": "issuer-hosted full transcript; attributable questions read", "accessLevel": "2026-10-08实际阅读具名问答正文；发行人托管正文/PDF已读取；未听录音。" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "完成两份实质具名问答选读及一张三阶段合成练习；仍是材料样本，不认证持续方法。", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.roic.ai/quote/SPLK/transcripts/2023-year/1-quarter", "https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_ce622def36020bd12ae7bda661b8d25a/uipath/db/1195/13709/webcast_transcript/UiPath_-_3Q_2024_-_Earnings_Call_Transcript.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "扩展独立时期具名问答，取得原始录音或个人报告验证反例和稳定性" } }, { "id": "S65", "name": "R. Scott Berg", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Needham & Company analyst in cited calls", "currentRole": "Senior Analyst, SaaS and enterprise/application software", "firm": "Needham & Company", "focus": "云软件与AI变现", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.needhamco.com/team/scott-berg/", "title": "Scott Berg — Needham biography", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Senior Analyst covering SaaS/enterprise applications and leading team AI research", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两次公开问答选读支持方法样本，不认证永久个人风格", "未审计个人预测准确度、投资业绩或付费模型", "当前任职未以本轮历史问答独立确认" ], "aliases": [ "Scott Berg" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "r-scott-berg", "roleNote": "仅材料日期机构归属；公开问答样本，未认证永久方法。", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2S3-FRSHQ325", "title": "Freshworks Q3 2025 Earnings Call", "date": "2025-11-05", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/987526491/files/doc_financials/2025/q3/FRSH-Q3-25-Earnings-Transcript.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；发行人托管PDF；未用录音逐字复核。 定位：pp.10–11" }, { "id": "R2S3-NAVANQ426", "title": "Navan Q4 FY2026 Earnings Call", "date": "2026-03-25", "url": "https://investors.navan.com/static-files/16602ac2-7215-443d-a8f8-011ac356b23d", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；发行人托管PDF；未用录音逐字复核。 定位：pp.12–13" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "两份具名实质问答已读取，形成方法样本", "checkedUrls": [ "https://s21.q4cdn.com/987526491/files/doc_financials/2025/q3/FRSH-Q3-25-Earnings-Transcript.pdf", "https://investors.navan.com/static-files/16602ac2-7215-443d-a8f8-011ac356b23d" ], "nextEvidence": "增加不同日期独立问答并检验反例；当前任职另外核验" } }, { "id": "S66", "name": "Mark Mahaney", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Evercore ISI analyst in cited calls", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Evercore ISI", "focus": "互联网平台与云资本开支", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/stock-info/", "title": "Meta analyst coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Mark Mahaney listed with Evercore ISI", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两次公开问答选读支持方法样本，不认证永久个人风格", "未审计个人预测准确度、投资业绩或付费模型", "当前任职未以本轮历史问答独立确认" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "mark-mahaney", "roleNote": "仅材料日期机构归属；公开问答样本，未认证永久方法。", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2S3-AMZNQ424", "title": "Amazon Q4 2024 Earnings Call — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-02-06", "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/02/06/amazoncom-amzn-q4-2024-earnings-call-transcript/", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；第三方公开全文转录，未用录音逐字复核，官方IR核对活动日期。 定位：Q&A首位Mark Mahaney" }, { "id": "O8SB-META1", "title": "Meta Q1 2025 earnings call — selected Q&A", "date": "2025-04-30", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/Transcripts/META-Q1-2025-Earnings-Call-Transcript-1.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08通过网页检索器读取官方PDF正文，印刷页9–13；本地直接下载超时，不声称本地副本校验。 定位：pp.18–19" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "两份具名实质问答已读取，形成方法样本", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/02/06/amazoncom-amzn-q4-2024-earnings-call-transcript/", "https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/Transcripts/META-Q1-2025-Earnings-Call-Transcript-1.pdf", "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/events/event-details/2025/Q4-2024-Amazoncom-Inc-Earnings-Conference-Call/default.aspx" ], "nextEvidence": "增加不同日期独立问答并检验反例；当前任职另外核验" } }, { "id": "S67", "name": "Brian Nowak", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Equity research analyst", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Morgan Stanley", "focus": "互联网平台与云资本开支", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/stock-info/", "title": "Meta analyst coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Brian Nowak listed with Morgan Stanley", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "仅研究两次公开问答样本；未取得完整证券研报、估值模型或底层渠道数据。", "未审计预测结果或投资绩效；2025来源角色不等于2026现职核验。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "brian-nowak-ms", "roleNote": "", "researchStatus": "method-sample; not recurring-method-certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8SB-META1", "title": "Meta Q1 2025 earnings call — selected Q&A", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/Transcripts/META-Q1-2025-Earnings-Call-Transcript-1.pdf", "date": "2025-04-30", "access": "2026-10-08官方正文选段核读；印刷页9–11，Brian Nowak" }, { "id": "O8SB-META2", "title": "Meta Q2 2025 earnings call — selected Q&A", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2025/q2/META-Q2-2025-Earnings-Call-Transcript.pdf", "date": "2025-07-30", "access": "2026-10-08官方正文选段核读；印刷页12–13，Brian Nowak" } ] }, { "id": "S68", "name": "Eric Sheridan", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Equity research analyst", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Goldman Sachs", "focus": "互联网平台与云资本开支", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/stock-info/", "title": "Meta analyst coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Eric Sheridan listed with Goldman Sachs", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "仅研究两次公开问答样本；未取得完整证券研报、估值模型或底层渠道数据。", "未审计预测结果或投资绩效；2025来源角色不等于2026现职核验。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "eric-sheridan-gs", "roleNote": "", "researchStatus": "method-sample; not recurring-method-certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8SB-META1", "title": "Meta Q1 2025 earnings call — selected Q&A", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/Transcripts/META-Q1-2025-Earnings-Call-Transcript-1.pdf", "date": "2025-04-30", "access": "2026-10-08官方正文选段核读；印刷页11，Eric Sheridan" }, { "id": "O8SB-META2", "title": "Meta Q2 2025 earnings call — selected Q&A", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2025/q2/META-Q2-2025-Earnings-Call-Transcript.pdf", "date": "2025-07-30", "access": "2026-10-08官方正文选段核读；印刷页9–12，Eric Sheridan" } ] }, { "id": "S69", "name": "Doug Anmuth", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Equity research analyst", "currentRole": null, "firm": "J.P. Morgan", "focus": "互联网平台与云资本开支", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/stock-info/", "title": "Meta analyst coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Douglas Anmuth listed with J.P. Morgan", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "仅研究两次公开问答样本；未取得完整证券研报、估值模型或底层渠道数据。", "未审计预测结果或投资绩效；2025来源角色不等于2026现职核验。" ], "aliases": [ "Douglas Anmuth" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "doug-anmuth-jpm", "roleNote": "", "researchStatus": "method-sample; not recurring-method-certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8SB-META1", "title": "Meta Q1 2025 earnings call — selected Q&A", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/Transcripts/META-Q1-2025-Earnings-Call-Transcript-1.pdf", "date": "2025-04-30", "access": "2026-10-08官方正文选段核读；印刷页12–13，Douglas Anmuth" }, { "id": "O8SB-META2", "title": "Meta Q2 2025 earnings call — selected Q&A", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2025/q2/META-Q2-2025-Earnings-Call-Transcript.pdf", "date": "2025-07-30", "access": "2026-10-08官方正文选段核读；印刷页13–14，Douglas Anmuth" } ] }, { "id": "S70", "name": "Justin Post", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Equity research analyst", "currentRole": null, "firm": "Bank of America / Merrill Lynch", "focus": "互联网平台与云资本开支", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/stock-info/", "title": "Meta analyst coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Justin Post listed with Bank of America / Merrill Lynch", "retrievalLevel": "primary-full-text", "accessLevel": "primary-full-text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "仅研究两次公开问答样本；未取得完整证券研报、估值模型或底层渠道数据。", "未审计预测结果或投资绩效；2025来源角色不等于2026现职核验。" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "justin-post-bofa", "roleNote": "", "researchStatus": "method-sample; not recurring-method-certified", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8SB-META1", "title": "Meta Q1 2025 earnings call — selected Q&A", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/Transcripts/META-Q1-2025-Earnings-Call-Transcript-1.pdf", "date": "2025-04-30", "access": "2026-10-08官方正文选段核读；印刷页12，Justin Post" }, { "id": "O8SB-META2", "title": "Meta Q2 2025 earnings call — selected Q&A", "url": "https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2025/q2/META-Q2-2025-Earnings-Call-Transcript.pdf", "date": "2025-07-30", "access": "2026-10-08官方正文选段核读；印刷页14–16，Justin Post" } ] }, { "id": "S71", "name": "James Fish", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Piper Sandler analyst in cited calls", "currentRole": "Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst", "firm": "Piper Sandler", "focus": "网络、通信与数字基础设施", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.pipersandler.com/about/people/james-fish", "title": "James Fish | Piper Sandler", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "James Fish and Piper Sandler affiliation at source date; 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issuer coverage is not endorsement", "retrievalLevel": "issuer IR CDN transcript participant list and attributable Q&A read", "accessLevel": "issuer IR CDN transcript participant list and attributable Q&A read" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两次公开问答选读支持方法样本，不认证永久个人风格", "未审计个人预测准确度、投资业绩或付费模型", "当前任职未以本轮历史问答独立确认" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "george-wang", "roleNote": "仅材料日期机构归属；公开问答样本，未认证永久方法。", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2S3-JBLQ424", "title": "Jabil Q4 FY2024 Earnings Call", "date": "2024-09-26", "url": "https://s27.q4cdn.com/276975351/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/JBL-USQ_Transcript_2024-09-26.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；发行人托管PDF；未用录音逐字复核。 定位：pp.15–16" }, { "id": "R2S3-JBLQ124", "title": "Jabil Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call", "date": "2024-12-18", "url": "https://s27.q4cdn.com/276975351/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/JBL-USQ_Transcript_2024-12-18.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；发行人托管PDF；未用录音逐字复核。 定位：pp.10–11" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "两份具名实质问答已读取，形成方法样本", "checkedUrls": [ "https://s27.q4cdn.com/276975351/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/JBL-USQ_Transcript_2024-09-26.pdf", "https://s27.q4cdn.com/276975351/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/JBL-USQ_Transcript_2024-12-18.pdf" ], "nextEvidence": "增加不同日期独立问答并检验反例；当前任职另外核验" } }, { "id": "S81", "name": "Michael Elias", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Analyst listed by issuer", "currentRole": "Managing Director, TMT – Communications Infrastructure Research Analyst, TD Cowen", "firm": "TD Cowen", "focus": "数据中心资产与连接服务", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://investor.equinix.com/stock-information/analyst-coverage", "title": "Equinix Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Michael Elias and TD Cowen affiliation at source date; issuer coverage is not endorsement", "retrievalLevel": "official issuer coverage table full text", "accessLevel": "official issuer coverage table full text" }, { "url": "https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tdc-tmt-2026-qts", "title": "QTS On Data Center Outlook", "date": "2026-07-06", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Current biography and dated host attribution; audio not reviewed; transcript absent", "retrievalLevel": "official article full text", "accessLevel": "official article full text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未审计评级、目标价和投资回报", "未读取付费底层模型", "访谈为管理层自述，需要项目级独立验证" ], "research": { "thesis": "可交付容量 → 合同与定价 → 开发收益率与资本成本", "attribution": "Editorial method sample, not current trade recommendation or forecast", "assumptions": [ "最终需求去重", "项目成本与NOI口径匹配", "资本门槛可比较" ], "counterevidence": [ "无接入承诺", "涨租被成本抵消", "交付延误" ], "skill": [ "F7", "F9", "F10", "F17", "F18" ], "sources": [ { "id": "EXP200-S81-A", "title": "DataBank CEO Raul Martynek Talks Data Centers", "date": "2025-06-13", "event_date": "2025-05-29", "url": "https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tdc-tmt-conference-databank-talks-data-centers", "authors": "Michael Elias (interviewer); Raul Martynek (management)", "access": "2026-10-07读取官方完整文字转录；未听原音频。", "retrieval_level": "primary full transcript; relevant exchanges read", "summary": "Elias拆开成本转嫁、融资成本与开发收益率差，追问供给瓶颈；Martynek认为当时收益率不再继续扩大。" }, { "id": "EXP200-S81-B", "title": "QTS On the Data Center Outlook", "date": "2025-08-27", "event_date": "2025-08-12", "url": "https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tdc-insights-qts-on-data-center-outlook", "authors": "Michael Elias (official host metadata); Tag Greason (management)", "access": "2026-10-07读取官方完整文字转录；正文将主持人拼作Michael Ellis，页首及人物简介均为Michael Elias；按官方元数据归属，未听音频。", "retrieval_level": "primary full transcript; relevant exchanges read; speaker spelling inconsistency documented", "summary": "Elias追问电力宣称与真实可交付量的差异，并指出同一需求被多个申请放大；Greason区分申请与已承诺电力，强调客户及交付约束。" } ] }, "priority": true, "profileId": "michael-elias", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "EXP200-S81-A", "title": "DataBank CEO Raul Martynek Talks Data Centers", "url": "https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tdc-tmt-conference-databank-talks-data-centers", "date": "2025-06-13", "access": "官方完整文字转录可访问；已读相关提问和回答。会议与发布日期分开；未复核全部音频。" }, { "id": "EXP200-S81-B", "title": "QTS On the Data Center Outlook", "url": "https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tdc-insights-qts-on-data-center-outlook", "date": "2025-08-27", "access": "官方完整文字转录可访问；已读相关提问和回答。会议与发布日期分开；未复核全部音频。" } ] }, { "id": "S82", "name": "David Guarino", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Green Street Advisors analyst in cited calls", "currentRole": "Issuer-listed coverage analyst, Green Street Advisors", "firm": "Green Street Advisors", "focus": "数据中心资产与连接服务", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://investor.equinix.com/stock-information/analyst-coverage", "title": "Equinix Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "David Guarino and Green Street Advisors affiliation at source date; issuer coverage is not endorsement", "retrievalLevel": "official issuer coverage table full text", "accessLevel": "official issuer coverage table full text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两次公开问答选读支持方法样本，不认证永久个人风格", "未审计个人预测准确度、投资业绩或付费模型", "当前任职未以本轮历史问答独立确认" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "david-guarino", "roleNote": "仅材料日期机构归属；公开问答样本，未认证永久方法。", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2S3-DLRQ225", "title": "Digital Realty Q2 2025 Earnings Call — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-07-24", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/DLR/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；第三方公开全文转录，未用录音逐字复核，官方IR核对活动日期。 定位：David Guarino Q&A" }, { "id": "R2S3-EQIXQ325", "title": "Equinix Q3 2025 Earnings Call — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-10-29", "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/10/29/equinix-eqix-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript/", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；第三方公开全文转录，未用录音逐字复核，官方IR核对活动日期。 定位：David Guarino Q&A" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "两份具名实质问答已读取，形成方法样本", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.roic.ai/quote/DLR/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter", "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/10/29/equinix-eqix-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript/", "https://investor.digitalrealty.com/static-files/7689bc64-e5cc-45ae-aa51-f5f9eac71cf0", "https://investor.equinix.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1086/equinix-reports-strong-third-quarter-2025-results" ], "nextEvidence": "增加不同日期独立问答并检验反例；当前任职另外核验" } }, { "id": "S83", "name": "Jonathan Petersen", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Jefferies analyst in cited calls", "currentRole": "Issuer-listed coverage analyst, Jefferies", "firm": "Jefferies", "focus": "数据中心资产与连接服务", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://investor.equinix.com/stock-information/analyst-coverage", "title": "Equinix Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Jonathan Petersen and Jefferies affiliation at source date; issuer coverage is not endorsement", "retrievalLevel": "official issuer coverage table full text", "accessLevel": "official issuer coverage table full text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两次公开问答选读支持方法样本，不认证永久个人风格", "未审计个人预测准确度、投资业绩或付费模型", "当前任职未以本轮历史问答独立确认" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "jonathan-petersen", "roleNote": "仅材料日期机构归属；公开问答样本，未认证永久方法。", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2S3-DLRQ225", "title": "Digital Realty Q2 2025 Earnings Call — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-07-24", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/DLR/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；第三方公开全文转录，未用录音逐字复核，官方IR核对活动日期。 定位：首位Jon Petersen Q&A" }, { "id": "R2S3-EQIXQ325", "title": "Equinix Q3 2025 Earnings Call — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-10-29", "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/10/29/equinix-eqix-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript/", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；第三方公开全文转录，未用录音逐字复核，官方IR核对活动日期。 定位：Jonathan Petersen Q&A" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "两份具名实质问答已读取，形成方法样本", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.roic.ai/quote/DLR/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter", "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/10/29/equinix-eqix-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript/", "https://investor.digitalrealty.com/static-files/7689bc64-e5cc-45ae-aa51-f5f9eac71cf0", "https://investor.equinix.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1086/equinix-reports-strong-third-quarter-2025-results" ], "nextEvidence": "增加不同日期独立问答并检验反例；当前任职另外核验" } }, { "id": "S84", "name": "Ari Klein", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "BMO Capital Markets analyst in cited calls", "currentRole": "Issuer-listed coverage analyst, BMO Capital Markets", "firm": "BMO Capital Markets", "focus": "数据中心资产与连接服务", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://investor.equinix.com/stock-information/analyst-coverage", "title": "Equinix Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Ari Klein and BMO Capital Markets affiliation at source date; issuer coverage is not endorsement", "retrievalLevel": "official issuer coverage table full text", "accessLevel": "official issuer coverage table full text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两次公开问答选读支持方法样本，不认证永久个人风格", "未审计个人预测准确度、投资业绩或付费模型", "当前任职未以本轮历史问答独立确认" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "ari-klein", "roleNote": "仅材料日期机构归属；公开问答样本，未认证永久方法。", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2S3-EQIXQ225", "title": "Equinix Q2 2025 Earnings Call — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-07-30", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/EQIX/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；第三方公开全文转录，未用录音逐字复核，官方IR核对活动日期。 Roic页面标题July31；本记录采用官方IR实际电话会日期July30。 定位：Aryeh Klein Q&A" }, { "id": "R2S3-EQIXQ325", "title": "Equinix Q3 2025 Earnings Call — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-10-29", "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/10/29/equinix-eqix-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript/", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；第三方公开全文转录，未用录音逐字复核，官方IR核对活动日期。 定位：Ari Klein Q&A" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "两份具名实质问答已读取，形成方法样本", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.roic.ai/quote/EQIX/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter", "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/10/29/equinix-eqix-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript/", "https://investor.equinix.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1076/equinix-reports-second-quarter-2025-results", "https://investor.equinix.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1086/equinix-reports-strong-third-quarter-2025-results" ], "nextEvidence": "增加不同日期独立问答并检验反例；当前任职另外核验" } }, { "id": "S85", "name": "Eric Luebchow", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Wells Fargo analyst in cited calls", "currentRole": "Issuer-listed coverage analyst, Wells Fargo", "firm": "Wells Fargo", "focus": "数据中心资产与连接服务", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://investor.equinix.com/stock-information/analyst-coverage", "title": "Equinix Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Eric Luebchow and Wells Fargo affiliation at source date; issuer coverage is not endorsement", "retrievalLevel": "official issuer coverage table full text", "accessLevel": "official issuer coverage table full text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两次公开问答选读支持方法样本，不认证永久个人风格", "未审计个人预测准确度、投资业绩或付费模型", "当前任职未以本轮历史问答独立确认" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "eric-luebchow", "roleNote": "仅材料日期机构归属；公开问答样本，未认证永久方法。", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2S3-EQIXQ225", "title": "Equinix Q2 2025 Earnings Call — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-07-30", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/EQIX/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；第三方公开全文转录，未用录音逐字复核，官方IR核对活动日期。 Roic页面标题July31；本记录采用官方IR实际电话会日期July30。 定位：Eric Luebchow Q&A" }, { "id": "R2S3-EQIXQ325", "title": "Equinix Q3 2025 Earnings Call — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-10-29", "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/10/29/equinix-eqix-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript/", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；第三方公开全文转录，未用录音逐字复核，官方IR核对活动日期。 定位：Eric Luebchow Q&A" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "两份具名实质问答已读取，形成方法样本", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.roic.ai/quote/EQIX/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter", "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/10/29/equinix-eqix-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript/", "https://investor.equinix.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1076/equinix-reports-second-quarter-2025-results", "https://investor.equinix.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1086/equinix-reports-strong-third-quarter-2025-results" ], "nextEvidence": "增加不同日期独立问答并检验反例；当前任职另外核验" } }, { "id": "S86", "name": "Timothy Horan", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Oppenheimer & Co. analyst in cited calls", "currentRole": "Issuer-listed coverage analyst, Oppenheimer & Co.", "firm": "Oppenheimer & Co.", "focus": "数据中心资产与连接服务", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://investor.equinix.com/stock-information/analyst-coverage", "title": "Equinix Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Timothy Horan and Oppenheimer & Co. affiliation at source date; 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issuer coverage is not endorsement", "retrievalLevel": "official issuer coverage table full text", "accessLevel": "official issuer coverage table full text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两次公开问答选读支持方法样本，不认证永久个人风格", "未审计个人预测准确度、投资业绩或付费模型", "当前任职未以本轮历史问答独立确认" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "frank-louthan-iv", "roleNote": "仅材料日期机构归属；公开问答样本，未认证永久方法。", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2S3-EQIXQ225", "title": "Equinix Q2 2025 Earnings Call — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-07-30", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/EQIX/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；第三方公开全文转录，未用录音逐字复核，官方IR核对活动日期。 Roic页面标题July31；本记录采用官方IR实际电话会日期July30。 定位：Frank Louthan Q&A" }, { "id": "R2S3-EQIXQ325", "title": "Equinix Q3 2025 Earnings Call — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-10-29", "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/10/29/equinix-eqix-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript/", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；第三方公开全文转录，未用录音逐字复核，官方IR核对活动日期。 定位：Frank Louthan Q&A" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "两份具名实质问答已读取，形成方法样本", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.roic.ai/quote/EQIX/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter", "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/10/29/equinix-eqix-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript/", "https://investor.equinix.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1076/equinix-reports-second-quarter-2025-results", "https://investor.equinix.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1086/equinix-reports-strong-third-quarter-2025-results" ], "nextEvidence": "增加不同日期独立问答并检验反例；当前任职另外核验" } }, { "id": "S91", "name": "Andy Kaplowitz", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Citigroup analyst in the cited dated calls", "currentRole": "Issuer-listed coverage analyst, Citi", "firm": "Citi", "focus": "电力、散热与工业资本开支", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.eaton.com/ie/en-gb/company/investor-relations/investor-toolkit/analyst-coverage.html", "title": "Eaton Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Andy Kaplowitz and Citi affiliation at source date; issuer coverage is not endorsement", "retrievalLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text", "accessLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得个人付费研究与完整估值模型", "未检验预测结果或投资业绩", "选读历史电话会，不代表全部覆盖或当前判断" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "andy-kaplowitz", "roleNote": "2026-10-08完成两份历史原始材料选读；机构按电话会当时归属。", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8SC-TTQ325", "title": "Trane Q3 2025 Earnings", "date": "2025-10-30", "url": "https://s2.q4cdn.com/950394465/files/doc_events/2025/Oct/30/Trane-Technologies-Q3-2025-Earnings-Transcript.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08，pp.10–12具名问答正文；未听音频。" }, { "id": "EXP200-S92-B", "title": "Trane Q4 2025 Earnings", "date": "2026-01-29", "url": "https://s2.q4cdn.com/950394465/files/doc_financials/2025/q4/Trane-Technologies-Q4-2025-Earnings_Transcript.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08，pp.12–13具名问答正文；未听音频。" } ] }, { "id": "S92", "name": "Julian Mitchell", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Analyst listed by issuer", "currentRole": "Issuer-listed coverage analyst, Barclays", "firm": "Barclays", "focus": "电力、散热与工业资本开支", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.eaton.com/ie/en-gb/company/investor-relations/investor-toolkit/analyst-coverage.html", "title": "Eaton Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Julian Mitchell and Barclays affiliation at source date; issuer coverage is not endorsement", "retrievalLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text", "accessLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "没有付费研究报告和目标价模型", "未审计预测结果", "管理层口径仍需财报和后续兑现核对" ], "research": { "thesis": "订单/积压 → 发货节奏 → 有机增长 → 价格成本与利润率", "attribution": "Editorial method sample, not current trade recommendation or forecast", "assumptions": [ "订单口径一致", "交期和验收可追踪", "价格数量成本可分离" ], "counterevidence": [ "积压来自延期", "订单取消", "价格只抵消成本金额" ], "skill": [ "F2", "F3", "F4", "F5", "F10", "F11" ], "sources": [ { "id": "EXP200-S92-A", "title": "nVent Q1 2026 Earnings Call", "date": "2026-05-01", "url": "https://s22.q4cdn.com/268397047/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/NVT-Q1-Earnings-Transcript.pdf", "authors": "Julian Mitchell (questioner); Beth Wozniak and Gary Corona (management)", "access": "2026-10-07读取发行人IR CDN完整转录中参与者表及pp.10–11有关问答；未听音频。", "retrieval_level": "issuer-hosted full transcript; attributable exchanges read", "summary": "Mitchell用积压订单、交期和两年累计增长检验收入指引，再检查涨价与通胀对利润率的净影响。" }, { "id": "EXP200-S92-B", "title": "Trane Technologies Q4 2025 Earnings", "date": "2026-01-29", "url": "https://s2.q4cdn.com/950394465/files/doc_financials/2025/q4/Trane-Technologies-Q4-2025-Earnings_Transcript.pdf", "authors": "Julian Mitchell (questioner); Christopher Kuehn and David Regnery (management)", "access": "2026-10-07读取发行人IR CDN完整转录中参与者表及pp.9–10问答；未听音频。", "retrieval_level": "issuer-hosted full transcript; attributable exchanges read", "summary": "Mitchell将订单增长映射到次年收入节奏，并以渠道库存和折价线索检验住宅业务判断；管理层回答交付周期和定价情况。" } ] }, "priority": true, "profileId": "julian-mitchell", "roleNote": "", "methodSources": [ { "id": "EXP200-S92-A", "title": "nVent Q1 2026 Earnings Call", "url": "https://s22.q4cdn.com/268397047/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/NVT-Q1-Earnings-Transcript.pdf", "date": "2026-05-01", "access": "2026-10-07读取发行人IR CDN完整转录中参与者表及pp.10–11有关问答；未听音频。" }, { "id": "EXP200-S92-B", "title": "Trane Technologies Q4 2025 Earnings", "url": "https://s2.q4cdn.com/950394465/files/doc_financials/2025/q4/Trane-Technologies-Q4-2025-Earnings_Transcript.pdf", "date": "2026-01-29", "access": "2026-10-07读取发行人IR CDN完整转录中参与者表及pp.9–10问答；未听音频。" } ] }, { "id": "S93", "name": "Stephen Tusa", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "JPMorgan analyst in the cited dated calls", "currentRole": "Issuer-listed coverage analyst, JP Morgan", "firm": "JP Morgan", "focus": "电力、散热与工业资本开支", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.eaton.com/ie/en-gb/company/investor-relations/investor-toolkit/analyst-coverage.html", "title": "Eaton Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Stephen Tusa and JP Morgan affiliation at source date; issuer coverage is not endorsement", "retrievalLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text", "accessLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得个人付费研究与完整估值模型", "未检验预测结果或投资业绩", "选读历史电话会，不代表全部覆盖或当前判断" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "stephen-tusa", "roleNote": "2026-10-08完成两份历史原始材料选读；机构按电话会当时归属。", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8SC-TTQ325", "title": "Trane Q3 2025 Earnings", "date": "2025-10-30", "url": "https://s2.q4cdn.com/950394465/files/doc_events/2025/Oct/30/Trane-Technologies-Q3-2025-Earnings-Transcript.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08，pp.26–27具名问答正文；未听音频。" }, { "id": "EXP200-S92-B", "title": "Trane Q4 2025 Earnings", "date": "2026-01-29", "url": "https://s2.q4cdn.com/950394465/files/doc_financials/2025/q4/Trane-Technologies-Q4-2025-Earnings_Transcript.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08，pp.24–25具名问答正文；未听音频。" } ] }, { "id": "S94", "name": "Scott Davis", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Melius Research analyst in the cited dated calls", "currentRole": "Issuer-listed coverage analyst, Melius Research", "firm": "Melius Research", "focus": "电力、散热与工业资本开支", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.eaton.com/ie/en-gb/company/investor-relations/investor-toolkit/analyst-coverage.html", "title": "Eaton Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Scott Davis and Melius Research affiliation at source date; issuer coverage is not endorsement", "retrievalLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text", "accessLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得个人付费研究与完整估值模型", "未检验预测结果或投资业绩", "选读历史电话会，不代表全部覆盖或当前判断" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "scott-davis", "roleNote": "2026-10-08完成两份历史原始材料选读；机构按电话会当时归属。", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8SC-TTQ325", "title": "Trane Q3 2025 Earnings", "date": "2025-10-30", "url": "https://s2.q4cdn.com/950394465/files/doc_events/2025/Oct/30/Trane-Technologies-Q3-2025-Earnings-Transcript.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08，pp.15–16具名问答正文；未听音频。" }, { "id": "EXP200-S92-B", "title": "Trane Q4 2025 Earnings", "date": "2026-01-29", "url": "https://s2.q4cdn.com/950394465/files/doc_financials/2025/q4/Trane-Technologies-Q4-2025-Earnings_Transcript.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08，pp.10–11具名问答正文；未听音频。" } ] }, { "id": "S95", "name": "Andrew Obin", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "BofA Global Research analyst in cited calls", "currentRole": "Issuer-listed coverage analyst, BofA Global Research", "firm": "BofA Global Research", "focus": "电力、散热与工业资本开支", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.eaton.com/ie/en-gb/company/investor-relations/investor-toolkit/analyst-coverage.html", "title": "Eaton Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Andrew Obin and BofA Global Research affiliation at source date; issuer coverage is not endorsement", "retrievalLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text", "accessLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两次公开问答选读支持方法样本，不认证永久个人风格", "未审计个人预测准确度、投资业绩或付费模型", "当前任职未以本轮历史问答独立确认" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "andrew-obin", "roleNote": "仅材料日期机构归属；公开问答样本，未认证永久方法。", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2S3-ETNQ125", "title": "Eaton Q1 2025 Earnings Call — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-05-02", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ETN/transcripts/2025-year/1-quarter", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；第三方公开全文转录，未用录音逐字复核，官方IR核对活动日期。 定位：Andrew Obin Q&A" }, { "id": "R2S3-ETNQ225", "title": "Eaton Q2 2025 Earnings Call — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-08-05", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ETN/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；第三方公开全文转录，未用录音逐字复核，官方IR核对活动日期。 定位：Andrew Obin本人自我确认后Q&A" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "两份具名实质问答已读取，形成方法样本", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ETN/transcripts/2025-year/1-quarter", "https://www.roic.ai/quote/ETN/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter", "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/news-insights/news-releases/2025/eaton-to-announce-first-quarter-2025-earnings-on-may-2--2025.html", "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/news-insights/news-releases/2025/eaton-to-announce-second-quarter-2025-earnings-on-august-5--2025.html" ], "nextEvidence": "增加不同日期独立问答并检验反例；当前任职另外核验" } }, { "id": "S96", "name": "Jeff Sprague", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Vertical Research Partners analyst in the cited dated calls", "currentRole": "Issuer-listed coverage analyst, Vertical Research Partners", "firm": "Vertical Research Partners", "focus": "电力、散热与工业资本开支", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.eaton.com/ie/en-gb/company/investor-relations/investor-toolkit/analyst-coverage.html", "title": "Eaton Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Jeff Sprague and Vertical Research Partners affiliation at source date; issuer coverage is not endorsement", "retrievalLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text", "accessLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得个人付费研究与完整估值模型", "未检验预测结果或投资业绩", "选读历史电话会，不代表全部覆盖或当前判断" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "jeff-sprague", "roleNote": "2026-10-08完成两份历史原始材料选读；机构按电话会当时归属。", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8SC-TTQ325", "title": "Trane Q3 2025 Earnings", "date": "2025-10-30", "url": "https://s2.q4cdn.com/950394465/files/doc_events/2025/Oct/30/Trane-Technologies-Q3-2025-Earnings-Transcript.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08，pp.19–21具名问答正文；未听音频。" }, { "id": "EXP200-S92-B", "title": "Trane Q4 2025 Earnings", "date": "2026-01-29", "url": "https://s2.q4cdn.com/950394465/files/doc_financials/2025/q4/Trane-Technologies-Q4-2025-Earnings_Transcript.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08，pp.21–22具名问答正文；未听音频。" } ] }, { "id": "S97", "name": "Joe Ritchie", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Goldman Sachs analyst in the cited dated calls", "currentRole": "Issuer-listed coverage analyst, Goldman Sachs", "firm": "Goldman Sachs", "focus": "电力、散热与工业资本开支", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.eaton.com/ie/en-gb/company/investor-relations/investor-toolkit/analyst-coverage.html", "title": "Eaton Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Joe Ritchie and Goldman Sachs affiliation at source date; issuer coverage is not endorsement", "retrievalLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text", "accessLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得个人付费研究与完整估值模型", "未检验预测结果或投资业绩", "选读历史电话会，不代表全部覆盖或当前判断" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "joe-ritchie", "roleNote": "2026-10-08完成两份历史原始材料选读；机构按电话会当时归属。", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8SC-TTQ325", "title": "Trane Q3 2025 Earnings", "date": "2025-10-30", "url": "https://s2.q4cdn.com/950394465/files/doc_events/2025/Oct/30/Trane-Technologies-Q3-2025-Earnings-Transcript.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08，pp.18–19具名问答正文；未听音频。" }, { "id": "EXP200-S92-B", "title": "Trane Q4 2025 Earnings", "date": "2026-01-29", "url": "https://s2.q4cdn.com/950394465/files/doc_financials/2025/q4/Trane-Technologies-Q4-2025-Earnings_Transcript.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08，pp.20–21具名问答正文；未听音频。" } ] }, { "id": "S98", "name": "Christopher Glynn", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Oppenheimer analyst in cited calls", "currentRole": "Issuer-listed coverage analyst, Oppenheimer", "firm": "Oppenheimer", "focus": "电力、散热与工业资本开支", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.eaton.com/ie/en-gb/company/investor-relations/investor-toolkit/analyst-coverage.html", "title": "Eaton Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Christopher Glynn and Oppenheimer affiliation at source date; issuer coverage is not endorsement", "retrievalLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text", "accessLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "两次公开问答选读支持方法样本，不认证永久个人风格", "未审计个人预测准确度、投资业绩或付费模型", "当前任职未以本轮历史问答独立确认" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "christopher-glynn", "roleNote": "仅材料日期机构归属；公开问答样本，未认证永久方法。", "methodSources": [ { "id": "R2S3-AMEQ424", "title": "AMETEK Q4 2024 Earnings Call — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-02-04", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/AME/transcripts/2024-year/4-quarter", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；第三方公开全文转录，未用录音逐字复核，官方IR核对活动日期。 定位：Christopher Glynn Q&A" }, { "id": "R2S3-AMEQ225", "title": "AMETEK Q2 2025 Earnings Call — public transcript mirror", "date": "2025-07-31", "url": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/AME/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter", "access": "2026-10-08实际读取具名问答正文；第三方公开全文转录，未用录音逐字复核，官方IR核对活动日期。 定位：Christopher Glynn Q&A" } ], "lastResearch": { "date": "2026-10-08", "outcome": "两份具名实质问答已读取，形成方法样本", "checkedUrls": [ "https://www.roic.ai/quote/AME/transcripts/2024-year/4-quarter", "https://www.roic.ai/quote/AME/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter", "https://www.ametek.com/newsroom/news/investor/2025/january/ametek-announces-fourth-quarter-2024-earnings-call-and-webcasted-investor-conference-call-information", "https://www.ametek.com/newsroom/news/investor/2025/july/ametek-announces-second-quarter-2025-earnings-call-and-webcasted-investor-conference-call-information" ], "nextEvidence": "增加不同日期独立问答并检验反例；当前任职另外核验" } }, { "id": "S99", "name": "Nicole DeBlase", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "Deutsche Bank analyst in the cited dated calls", "currentRole": "Issuer-listed coverage analyst, Deutsche Bank Research", "firm": "Deutsche Bank Research", "focus": "电力、散热与工业资本开支", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.eaton.com/ie/en-gb/company/investor-relations/investor-toolkit/analyst-coverage.html", "title": "Eaton Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Nicole DeBlase and Deutsche Bank Research affiliation at source date; issuer coverage is not endorsement", "retrievalLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text", "accessLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得个人付费研究与完整估值模型", "未检验预测结果或投资业绩", "选读历史电话会，不代表全部覆盖或当前判断" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "nicole-deblase", "roleNote": "2026-10-08完成两份历史原始材料选读；机构按电话会当时归属。", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8SC-NVTQ225", "title": "nVent Q2 2025 Earnings Call", "date": "2025-08-01", "url": "https://s22.q4cdn.com/268397047/files/doc_financials/2025/q2/Q2-Corrected-Transcript.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08，pp.14–15具名问答正文；未听音频。" }, { "id": "O8SC-TTQ325", "title": "Trane Q3 2025 Earnings", "date": "2025-10-30", "url": "https://s2.q4cdn.com/950394465/files/doc_events/2025/Oct/30/Trane-Technologies-Q3-2025-Earnings-Transcript.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08，p.23具名问答正文；未听音频。" } ] }, { "id": "S100", "name": "Deane Dray", "side": "sell", "roleAtSource": "RBC Capital Markets analyst in the cited dated calls", "currentRole": "Issuer-listed coverage analyst, RBC Capital Markets", "firm": "RBC Capital Markets", "focus": "电力、散热与工业资本开支", "identitySources": [ { "url": "https://www.eaton.com/ie/en-gb/company/investor-relations/investor-toolkit/analyst-coverage.html", "title": "Eaton Analyst Coverage", "date": null, "accessed": "2026-10-07", "whatVerified": "Deane Dray and RBC Capital Markets affiliation at source date; issuer coverage is not endorsement", "retrievalLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text", "accessLevel": "official issuer coverage list full text" } ], "status": "research-ready", "gaps": [ "未取得个人付费研究与完整估值模型", "未检验预测结果或投资业绩", "选读历史电话会，不代表全部覆盖或当前判断" ], "priority": false, "profileId": "deane-dray", "roleNote": "2026-10-08完成两份历史原始材料选读；机构按电话会当时归属。", "methodSources": [ { "id": "O8SC-NVTQ225", "title": "nVent Q2 2025 Earnings Call", "date": "2025-08-01", "url": "https://s22.q4cdn.com/268397047/files/doc_financials/2025/q2/Q2-Corrected-Transcript.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08，pp.7–8具名问答正文；未听音频。" }, { "id": "O8SC-TTQ325", "title": "Trane Q3 2025 Earnings", "date": "2025-10-30", "url": "https://s2.q4cdn.com/950394465/files/doc_events/2025/Oct/30/Trane-Technologies-Q3-2025-Earnings-Transcript.pdf", "access": "2026-10-08，pp.25–26具名问答正文；未听音频。" } ] } ] }